000
FXUS63 KMKX 121945
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
245 PM CDT SAT AUG 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON ERODING AFTERNOON CUMULUS
TONIGHT...THEN ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD ERODE EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE WOULD BE SOME POTENTIAL OF FOG...MAINLY PATCHY IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS WITH DRY MID LEVELS.   SOME INCREASE IN
GRADIENT WEST AREAS...BUT DEW POINTS HIGHER.  THIS TIME OF YEAR
TRICKY WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AND WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES WITH
ONSHORE WINDS.  EXPECT LAKESHORE AREAS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH
MODIS LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 70.  THE 1 KM MODIS IMAGERY HAS
BEEN VERY INTERESTING SHOWING THE NARROW COOL UPWELLING AREAS ON THE
EAST SHORE.  THIS IMAGERY WILL BE USEFUL IN DETAILING THE TRANSITION
INTO AND OUT OF UPWELLING COOLING AND WHEN EAST WINDS PUSH WARMER
SURFACE WATERS ACROSS WESTERN SHORE...AT LEAST WHEN SKY`S ARE
CLEAR.

HIGH OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. DUE TO UPPER RIDGE...THE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING HEAD OF PLAINS COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO
PUSH EAST. WILL BACK OFF ANOTHER 3 HOURS BRINGING IN THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY EVENING.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHES 2 INCHES ALONG COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER
MAINLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. FRONT ALSO COMING THROUGH LATE
SUN NIGHT/MON AM DURING COOLEST PERIOD.  12Z NAM SHOWS NO QPF OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AS ONE AREA OF PRECIPITATION GOES NORTH
WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE SHORTWAVE...AND THE OTHER ARE STAYS SOUTH
IN AREA OF GREATEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER GFS STILL OUTPUTS QPF...AND
MOST MOS STILL IN THE LIKELY RANGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...EVEN THE
ETA MOS.  WILL BACK OFF ON LIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST.

FOR TUE THROUGH THU....UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN AS AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. NO RAIN
EXPECTED UNTIL FRIDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 131945 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT SUN AUG 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

CIRRUS SHOULD THICKEN EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 1 KM MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING THE NARROW COOL UPWELLING AREAS ON
THE EAST SHORE OF LAKE MI HAVE WARMED FROM YESTERDAY AS WINDS ARE
NOW PARALLEL TO SHORE.  MEANWHILE ON WEST SHORE TEMPERATURES STILL
IN THE LOWER 70S.

APPROACHING COLD FRONT SHOULD PICK UP SPEED TONIGHT AS UPPER TROF
SWINGS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...REACHING THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
MONDAY.

PRECIPITABLE WATER REACHES 2 INCHES ALONG COLD FRONT IN THE FAR
SOUTH. NAM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LESS THAN A MORE ROBUST
GFS. AS SUCH 12Z NAM STILL SHOWS FRONTAL PRECIPITATION BAND TO
WEAKEN AND BECOME SCATTERED AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. NAM SHOWS MARGINAL CAPE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICS FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER TROF...AND BEST CAPE TO THE SOUTH. WILL KEEP SIMILAR POPS IN
THE FORECAST WITH LIKELY POPS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND A CHANCE
FOR THE SOUTHEAST.

WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REPLACED BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NEW GFS SHOWING MORE SURFACE RIDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES...KEEPING MUCH OF THE MID WEEK DRY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 141927
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT MON AUG 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK.

WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS THE 1 KM MODIS
LAKE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY SHOWING THE TRANSITION OF UPWELLING
TO THE WESTERN SHORE WITH TEMPS NOW IN THE LOWER 60S..WITH WARMER
TEMPS(UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S) NOW ON THE EASTERN SHORE.

SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LOW
DEW POINT AIR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL TO MOS VALUES.

EXPECT TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN MOS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH IF SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.  HOWEVER NAM/WRF SHOWING SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH TRANSITION FROM NORTHWEST FLOW TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW.  THINK THIS MAY BE OVERDONE...SO AM LEANING TO DROP TEMPS A
LITTLE.

WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REPLACED BY WEAK UPPER RIDGING WITH MORE
OF A ZONAL FLOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
CENTERS ON WEAK SHORTWAVE THURSDAY AND RELATED POPS.  SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION...BUT MAINLY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH WITH DEVELOPING
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW.  PREFER TO KEEP IT DRY OVER SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK WITH WEAK COLD FRONT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 162045
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.

12Z UA ANALYSIS INDICATING MEAN 500MB RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE NRN PLAINS...WITH MEAN TROUGHS ALONG BOTH EAST AND WEST COASTS.
ALSO KEEPING AN EYE OF SEVERAL WEAKER SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN
SWLY FLOW TO OUR WEST...ONE CURRENTLY SCOOTING THRU ND...WITH
SECOND TAKING SHAPE INVOF OF 4-CORNERS REGION (AS SEEN NICELY ON THE
1KM MODIS WV IMAGERY). AT THE SFC...MSAS INDICATING A 1020MB HIGH
CNTRD OVER ERN MI...WITH 1008MB LOW OVR WRN SD. VIS/IR IMAGERY
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING AN AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WRN
IA/SRN NEB ALONG AXIS OF LOW LVL WAA.

SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED FCST IN SHORT TERM...AS VARIOUS SHORT RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT
TO CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TOMORROW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH SKIES REMAINING GENRALLY PARTLY CLOUDY. BIGGER
CHANGES TO OCCUR JUST TO OUR WEST AS BOTH GFS/NMM CONTINUE TO
DEVLOP A 30- 40KT LLJ OVR CNTRL IA FROM 06-12Z. GOOD MSTR
CONVERGENCE ON NOSE OF JET...ALG WITH MDT-STG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON
305K SFC SHOULD DEVELOP DECENT MCS BY 12Z. AS WAS THE CASE
YESTERDAY...GFS AND NMM THEN DISAGREE ON EASTWARD SPREAD OF
MOISTURE ON THURSDAY...WITH GFS AGAIN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE BRINGING
MOISTURE AND PRECIP (LIKELY DUE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROBLEMS)
INTO WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
ATTM...STILL LIKE THE NMM DEPICTION OF A WEAKENING MCS (DUE TO
INGEST OF DRY AIR) MOVG INTO WRN PORTIONS OF CWA...WEST OF
MADISON...DURING THE DAY TOMORROW WITH LOW POPS WARRANTED THERE.
FURTHER EAST...ONLY EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MOSTLY
CLOUDY...AND ALSO COOLER TEMPS AREAWIDE.

BETTER MOISTURE/THETA-E ADVECTION TO OCCUR ON THU NIGHT AS BOTH GFS
AND NMM INCREASE 850MB DWPTS INTO THE 12-15C RANGE...HIGH CHANCE
POPS LOOKING GOOD. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP ON FRIDAY AS SFC
BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LAY-UP INVOF OF WI/IL BORDER. DECENT
WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED OVER SRN WI ON 305K SFC...AS WARM AND
MOIST FLOW RIDES UP AND OVER SFC FRONT. PREVIOUS FCST HAD LIKELY
POPS APPROX SOUTH OF I-94...WITH HIGH CHANCE NORTH...AND THIS
LOOKS GOOD.

CHANCE OF PRECIP TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY...AS RATHER VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. BEST UPR LEVEL
FORCING/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE FROM THIS FEATURE EXPECTED TO STAY OVR
NRN WI...HOWEVER ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...TRIGGERING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS MLCAPE VALUES NR 1000 J/KG.

EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS (GFS/ECMWF/UKMET) IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING FAIRLY
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER WILL LINGER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE
EAST. UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NWLY IN WAKE
OF S/W WITH SFC RIDGING BDLG IN FROM CANADA. CONFIDENCE FAIRLY
HIGH FOR DRY CONDITIONS SUN-MON...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS
THEN SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A SERIES OF FAST MOVING S/W TROFS TO
MOVE ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION IN A FAST NWLY FLOW. DUE TO RATHER
MEAGER MOISTURE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN...ALONG WITH TIMING/AMPLITUDE
QUESTIONS...DECIDED TO KEEP THIS PERIOD DRY FOR NOW AS MEX AND
ENSEMBLE MEX POPS GNRLLY AOB 20%.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FOWLE

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 301935
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING UPPER LOW AND STRONGER
UPPER LOW FOR NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM FIRST LOOK AT CRAS MODEL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE.  SO MUCH MODEL INFORMATION IS BEING PRESENTED IN ONE
IMAGE THAT CAN BE EASILY DIGESTED. ESPECIALLY WITH SAY 700MB NAM
HEIGHT OVERLAYED.   CLOUD COVER AND CLOUD HEIGHTS...EASILY
IDENTIFIED STRATOCUMULUS SHIELDS.  ALSO EASY TO CONVERT TO
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF SYSTEM TYPE.  DATA GOES OUT EVERY 3 HOURS TO
36 HOURS.  WOULD PREFER EVERY 6 HRS TO 60 OR 72 HOURS WITH AVAILABLE
BANDWIDTH.

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS EAST FLOW AND MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...AND DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST.  THINK MOST OF THE DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS AGAIN IN
THE EAST WITH MORE OF A GRADIENT.  MODIS 1 KM IMAGERY LAST NIGHT
SHOWERED THE DENSE FOG IN LONE ROCK AND BOSCOBEL WAS CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...IMPORTANT INFORMATION.  THE LOCAL
RIVER VALLEY DENSE FOG IS NOT SEEN IN THE NORMAL 2 KM GOES.

UPPER TROF AXIS LOCATED FROM E IL TO S TIP OF LAKE MI. PREVIOUS
SHOWERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHED INLAND INTO NORTHERN IL.  NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW A LOW LEVEL CAP AND LESS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OUR OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER FAR SE/SC WI SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING.  MAY
HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAIN THURSDAY.

WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO SOUTHERN WI WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS IS CONSISTENT IN BRINING STRONG UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.  TROF TO BECOME CLOSED AND CUT OFF...THEN IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER WI LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COOL AND
SHOWERY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS
OVER MOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 190856
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
356 AM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUD COVER AND TEMP TRENDS IN SHORT
TERM...THEN CONCERNS OVER NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

00Z 500/300MB ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY INDICATING POSITIVE TILT
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MN SWWD INTO NM. STRONG 100+ KNOT 300MB JET
EXTENDING ACROSS CNTRL CONUS...WITH SECOND JET STREAK DIVING SWD
INTO NRN ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...TROF/CDFNT SLIDING ACROSS OHIO RIVER
VALLEY...WITH SFC RIDGING OVER CNTRL PLAINS. 11-3.9 MICRON IR
IMAGERY SHOWING WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER UPPER MIDWEST EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH BACK EDGE RUNNING ALONG A KFAR-KOMA-KMCI LINE AS
OF 07Z (AS SEEN NICELY BY 1KM MODIS SCAN) AND SLOWLY PUSHING EAST.

FOR TODAY...GFS/WRF DIFFER ON TIMING OF STRATUS BREAKUP...WITH GFS
MODEL SOUNDINGS/TIME SECTIONS SHOWING CLEARING PUSHING INTO KMSN
BY 18Z AND INTO KMKE BY 21Z. WRF MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS CWA THRU 00Z...ESPECIALLY IN ERN ZONES.
SIMPLE LINEAR TIMING TOOL DOES NOT BRING CLEARING INTO KMSN UNTIL
AROUND 23Z...WHICH HOPEFULLY IS A BIT SLOW. ALL IN ALL...WILL SPLIT
THE DIFFERENCE AND SCATTER CLOUDS OUT IN KMSN AROUND 21Z BUT NOT TIL
AROUND 00Z IN KMKE. DUE TO THICKER CLOUD COVER AND LOW LVL
CAA...WILL SIDE MORE WITH THE COOLER METMOS TEMPS.

ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM
DEVELOPING IN PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEAK WAA WILL ALLOW
TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 50F IN MOST LOCATIONS.

IN THE LONGER TERM...MAIN EMPHASIS IS ON POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM
FOR THE WEEKEND. 00Z RUNS OF THE WRF AND GFS NOW SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE OF UPPER TROF AND
CORRESPONDING STRENGTH/TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. THE WRF SHOWS A MORE
DISTINCT S/W EJECTING THROUGH MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A DEEPER
AND MORE COMPACT SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN IL AND INTO SRN MI. ON
THE OTHER HAND...00Z GFS SHOWING A RATHER FLAT 500MB PATTERN (WITH
MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS) AND CONSEQUENTLY A MUCH WEAKER SFC
LOW (ACTUALLY JUST AN INVERTED TROUGH).  THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS (ECMWF/UKMET) ALSO APPEAR TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE
WEAKER GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS ALSO THE FAVORED MODEL SOLUTION AT
HPC. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT...AS EVEN THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTIONS STILL
GENERATES SOME QPF OVER THE CWA ON SAT/SAT EVENING. WILL HOPE FOR
BETTER CONSENSUS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE
PREDICATED ON OVERALL STRENGTH OF SYSTEM AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW...BUT EVEN WEAKER SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS SINKING SWD ACROSS WI IN WAKE OF LOW.  WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUN/MON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO
-6C TO -8C. DRY CONDITIONS WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THEN EXPECTED
BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FOWLE

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 290947
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
347 AM CST SUN OCT 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY BENIGN PATTERN EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS...WITH PRIMARY CHALLENGE TEMP TRENDS THROUGH PERIOD.

00Z UA ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG UPPER LOW
SPINNING INVOF ERN GREAT LAKES...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER CNTRL
ROCKIES. STRONG NWLY FLOW ALOFT /WITH 150KT 300MB JET/ EXTENDING
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA SEWD INTO OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING DOWN A
BIT LOWER...FAIRLY TIGHT 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED OVER UPPER
MIDWEST...WITH -3C NOTED AT KGRB AND 8C AT KOAX.  GOES/MODIS PW
SOUNDERS INDICATING A VERY DRY AMS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
AREA...WITH TOTAL PW VALUES A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. IR IMAGERY AT
08Z INDICATING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER WI...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOME SCT CIRRUS.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...EXPECTING DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AS UPPER RIDING BUILDS OVER AREA IN RESPONSE TO NEXT S/W
DROPPING SWD INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS A RESULT GOOD LOW LEVEL WAA
PATTERN WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW ALOFT TURNS SWLY...WITH
MODELS INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING INTO THE 3-5C RANGE BY 00Z
MON.  ALTHOUGH VERTICAL MIXING WILL BE LIMITED BY DEVELOPING
INVERSION...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM REACHING THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S AT
MOST LOCALES.

STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPING OVER SD EARLY MONDAY WILL TRACK NWD INTO
CNTRL MN BY MON EVENING DRAGGING ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT NWD THROUGH
SRN WI. IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL WAA IN WARM SECTOR SHOULD ALLOW 850MB TEMPS
TO JUMP INTO THE 10-12C RANGE AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. WRF STILL
MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN GFS WITH REGARDS TO WARM-UP...WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES ULTIMATELY PREDICATED ON AMOUNT OF WAA CLOUDINESS THAT
DEVELOPS. WILL STAY THE COURSE AND KEEP TEMPS GNRALLY IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S.

GFS/WRF STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING FROPA THROUGH THE CWA
MONDAY NIGHT BETWEEN 03Z AND 12Z. ATTM...BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION
REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH STRONGEST FRONTOGENTICAL FORCING ALONG
FRONT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE NOT BEING ENTRAINED INTO SYSTEM UNTIL
THE FRONT IS EAST OF THE FCST AREA. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN FORECAST FOR NOW...IN CASE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERDONE
BY MODELS.

STRONG CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL LEAD TO STEADY OR SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS ON TUESDAY...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO PERSIST
THROUGH END OF WEEK AS POLAR VORTEX GETS RE-ESTABLISHED INVOF HUDSON
BAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FOWLE

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 252054
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CST MON DEC 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...ATTENTION THIS FORECAST FOCUSES ON EXTENDED PERIOD BUT
STILL SOME MINOR ISSUES TO DEAL WITH IN NEXT THREE DAYS.  VERY WEAK
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING STILL MAY PRODUCING SCATTERED FLURRIES OR
EVEN SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS FROM PASSING SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST.  WSR-88D CONTINUING TO
SHOW INCREASING DBZ LESS THAN 10 AS CLOUDS THICKEN.  4KM WS-WRF ALSO
SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR SOUTHEAST.
MINIMAL CONTRIBUTION FROM LAKE EFFECT AS DELTA T REMAINS TOO SMALL.
/LATEST MODIS SLICE SHOWS WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 37 AND 42 DEGREES./

CLOUDS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF WISCONSIN WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS
REINFORCING SURGE OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION REINFORCES
THICKNESS TROUGH OVER THIS AREA TONIGHT.  POOL OF COOLER AIR SLIDES
EAST OF AREA ON TUESDAY SO MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST FILTERED
SUNSHINE.  DESPITE SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD RETARD
TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ON TUESDAY SO WENT BELOW MAV GUIDANCE BY ONE
CATEGORY.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT COLUMN FAILS TO
MOISTEN SO MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED INTO WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
EXTENDED GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARD SOME TYPE OF AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD...UNLIKE YESTERDAY WHEN CONFIDENCE WAS QUITE
LOW. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS SHOWING SURPRISING CONSISTENCY FOR
THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND UPPER LOW
EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY NEW YEARS EVE. WEIGHT ADDED
TO THIS SOLUTION AS BOTH UKMT AND CANADIAN...AND NOW 12Z ECMWF
SHOWING SIMILAR SCENARIOS.  WARMER AIR WRAPPING AROUND SYSTEM SHOULD
INITIALLY BRING A MIXTURE OF PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
LIQUID PRECIP LIKELY FOR FRIDAY WITH GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE AS LOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND FILL WITH
WARM CONVEYOR BELT GETTING PINCHED OFF TO THE EAST.  MEDIUM RANGE
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IN LIKELY OR GREATER CATEGORY
FOR FRI/SAT TIME PERIOD...SO WL UP POPS TO SIMILAR LEVELS AT LEAST
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND CUT BACK TO CHC LEVELS AS SYSTEM
BEGINS TO FILL.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 022015
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
220 PM CST TUE JAN 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...

HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
EXIT THIS EVENING. AIRMASS WILL DRY EVEN MORE WITH PASSAGE OF
TROUGH. SOME HIGH CIRRUS PUSHING IN DURING THE MORNING AS ZONAL
NORTHERN STREAM JET SETS UP.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INDUCE WARM ADVECTION WITH
1000-500 MB THICKNESSES RISING TO NEAR 550 DECAMETERS BY WED
MORNING. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.  WILL NOT RAISE THEM DUE TO EXTENSIVE
SNOW COVER OVER THE PLAINS...ALTHOUGH SOURCE REGION IS A BIT FARTHER
EAST.

LITTLE IN WAY OF LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL UNTIL FRIDAY...WHEN NAM SHOWS
SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL FRIDAY WITH ARRIVAL OF NEXT NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.  MODERATE 850 TO
700 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE ON NAM.  MAIN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS
REMAINS TO THE WEST...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING TO THE EAST.

LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER 40S OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN...EVEN INLAND LAKES FOR THE MOST PART ARE ICE
FREE.


.LONG TERM...

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH THEN MOVES FROM CANADA INTO
THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. 12Z GFS NOW SHOWING A
WEAKER AND MORE NORTH SHORTWAVE.  HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO REFLECT THIS.

ZONAL FLOW WITH WEAK FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CONTINUING EARLY
NEXT WEEK.  AS A RESULT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 232124
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
324 PM CST TUE JAN 23 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON PCPN CHANCES WITH SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW PATTERN.

IN THE SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING DISTINCT SHRT WAVE
AT 20Z JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. SFC TROF REFLECTION OF THIS WAVE
DROPPING THRU CWA ATTM WITH A FEW BANDS OF FLURRIES WHICH SHOULD
EXIT SRN CWA BY 00Z.

BACK EDGE OF LO STRATUS DECK...WHICH SHOWS VERY WELL IN MODIS 1KM
SNOW/ICE IMAGE AT 1915Z...TIMED TO CLEAR MSN AROUND 06Z AND MKE BY
09Z. RUC APPEARS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS TREND...WITH CLOUDS
HOLDING TEMPS UP FOR THE EVENING...THEN FALLING OFF RAPIDLY
OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER REACHING MOS LOWS
BY SUNRISE.

NAM AND GFS TIME NEXT WAVE IN THE SERIES THRU STATE WED
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL AGAIN ONLY BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF FLURRIES WITH THIS WAVE. 850 MB TEMPS DIP TO -14C
TO -18C BY THUR MORNING...SO HAVE GONE WITH COLDER GFS MOS NUMBERS
FOR WED NGT LOWS.

WAA BEGINS THUR NGT AND KICKS IN FULL ON FRIDAY. 290K ISENTROPIC
SURFACE FORECASTS ON BOTH NAM AND GFS SHOW DECENT ISENTROPIC
ADIABATIC OMEGA CROSSING CWA FRIDAY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FALL BELOW 100 MB MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS AGAIN DEPICTING LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
FOR MEASURABLE PCPN. SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE BELOW 800 MB FRI
AFTERNOON SO SOME LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE FROM LO STRATUS DECK...WITH
FLURRIES LIKELY AS WET BULB TEMPS REMAIN BLO 0C...BUT SUCH A QUICK
HIT WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION FOR NOW.

IN THE EXTENDED...12Z GFS SHOWING A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS VORTICITY
MAXIMA FOR SAT/SAT NGT THAT NEARLY CLOSES OFF AT 500 MB JUST TO OUR
EAST. DPROG/DT OF PREVIOUS GFS RUNS FOR 00Z SUN JAN 28TH SHOWS THIS
NEWER SOLUTION TO BE AN OUTLIER...AND NOT SUPPORTED BY 12Z ECMWF OR
CANADIAN. WILL CONTINUE TREND OF BRINGING FLURRIES ACROSS CWA WITH
THESE MOISTURE STARVED TROFS.

WITH APEX OF WESTERN 500 MB RIDGING EXTENDING WELL NORTH INTO NRN
CANADA...REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR BEHIND EACH WAVE WILL KEEP
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL TREND TEMPS A NOTCH COLDER
THAN 12Z HPC GUIDANCE TOWARDS 12Z MEX NUMBERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 072140
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
340 PM CST WED FEB 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS DURING
NEXT 7 DAYS.

20Z WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND RUC 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOW CLOSED POLAR
VORTEX REMAINS ANCHORED EAST OF HUDSON BAY WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND LOW CENTER. SERIES OF LOWS LINED UP ACROSS NRN
PACIFIC...WITH FIRST LOW MAKING LANDFALL IN PACIFIC NW. NEXT WAVE OF
INTEREST FOR WRN GREAT LAKES EXTENDING WEST FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
DROPPING SOUTH  THRU ONTARIO.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER CONFLUENT NW
FLOW THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS SUCH...PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE
RULE FOR TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER FOR THE NEAR TERM...AS WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION/COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SERIES OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS BRUSHING BY TO THE EAST OF CWA BRING LITTLE CHANGE
CURRENT TEMPERATURE REGIME. FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO OUR
NE ACROSS LK SUPERIOR INTO LWR MI TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
WITH LACK OF MOISTURE AND BETTER FORCING REMAINING NE OF CWA WITH
VORT SO EXPECT DRY NIGHT WITH FEW CLOUDS.

CWA REMAINS BETWEEN STACKED LO TO OUR NE AND HI PRESSURE RIDGE
NOSING SE THRU DAKOTAS INTO IA. WHILE NE CWA WILL REMAIN IN BETTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT CLEAR SKIES WILL DECOUPLE SFC WINDS...SO
COMBINATION OF LIGHTER WINDS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES WILL NOT SEE
ANY OF CWA REACHING WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

ENERGY FROM MORE VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSES BY TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LITTLE QG FORCING OR MOISTURE SO ONLY A FEW
MID/HI CLOUDS TO MARK PASSAGE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL UPPER AIR PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS GFS/ECMWF/UKMET AGREE ON KEEPING THE POLAR VORTEX ANCHORED
INVOF OF HUDSON BAY...WITH THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN A PERSISTENT
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. 12Z GFS HAS JOINED ECMWF IN DEPICTING A STRONGER
500 MB TROUGH ROTATING AROUND PARENT VORTEX NOW AFFECTING REGION
TUE/WED. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT STRONG SFC HIGH /NEARLY
1040MB/BUILDING IN BEHIND TROUGH. AT THIS POINT WILL TAKE OF BLEND
OF MODELS. AS SUCH...500MB HEIGHTS TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL OVER MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL CONUS...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

CONDITIONS LOOKING MAINLY DRY IN THE EXTENDED...AS MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS DEPICTING A DOMINANT SOUTHERN STREAM JET THAT WILL KEEP THE
MAIN STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL COME MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS SFC TO 850 MB WIND
FLOW AND DELTA T`S OF 18C BRING A SLGT CHC FOR LK AFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS TO LAKESHORE LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR SKC EXPECTED FOR OUTGOING TAF. VSBL SATELLITE SHOWS
LEADING EDGE OF AC STREAMING SEWD FROM SW MN AND WRN 2/3RDS OF IOWA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN KEEPING THIS TO THE SOUTH OF WI DURG FCST
PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE PHRASE...IN ICE FREE AREAS...HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE
NEARSHORE FORECAST DUE TO ICE BAND EXTENDING OUT FROM THE SHORE FROM
NEAR MKE TO AROUND THE SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MI. MODIS SEA SFC
TEMPERATURE 1KM IMAGE MATCHES WELL WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF
THIS ICE BAND.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM/PJS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 131942
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
242 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS PAN
HANDLE REGION. CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST
AND PHASES WITH LOW NOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
CYCLOGENISIS FROM THIS HAPPENS WELL EAST ALONG EAST COAST OF U.S.
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AIR WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS BORDER. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME AS TROUGH
PHASES WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT QPF.

UPWARD OMEGA IS SMALL...SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAINLY AROUND
700MB...BUT THIS IS ALSO WEAK. LOCAL WRF_ARW 20KM MODEL BASED ON GFS
TILES IS MUCH DRIER...AND IS PREFERRED.

4KM WRF_ARW WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION DOES BRING SOME QPF JUST ALONG
IL BORDER BY 16Z SATURDAY...BUT IS DRY BY 19Z. HOWEVER THIS IS
BASED ON 06Z GFS.  THE 20KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 12Z GFS IS DRY.

MODIS DATA SHOWING LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WATER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH INLAND LAKES MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

12Z CRAS IR MODEL INDICATES A MORE NORTHERN SHIFT OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS. CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS PRECIP MAY BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH
THAN NCEP MODELS.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID SNOW MELT...WITH REMAINING SNOW COVER
MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN N-S AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL AROUND 10-15 MILES INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.

.LONG TERM...

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN WITH MAIN TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND
EAST...WITH GENERAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. PREFER ECMWF
SOLUTION. GFS SEEMS TO PUSH SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. TOO
EARLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY OVER SRN WI AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF VERY LGT RAIN MAY
REACH THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WOULD REMAIN
VFR.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/06/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 162001 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BIAS CORRECTED NAM12 AND GFS40 TEMPS BOTH SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL TEND TOWARD THE COOLER MOS.

LOCAL 4KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 06Z GFS DID A VERY GOOD JOB WITH LAKE
BREEZE PLACEMENT.

EXCELLENT DAY FOR MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP. UPWELLING HAS COOLED
NEAR SHORE WATERS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. INLAND LAKE AND RIVER TEMPS
SEEM TOO WARM.

ECMWF ANS GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL KEEP MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS
DUE TO COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY. U.W. CRAS IR FORECAST
INDICATES THAT THE PRIOR PHASE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL OCCUR AFTER SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS. RETROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM EAST COAST SHORTWAVE OCCURS
WEDNESDAY. SOME HINT THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR FROM
THIS...BUT POPS SHOULD BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...
GFS NOW IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF SOLUTION THAT REESTABLISHES UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY...GFS JUST A BIT FASTER IN NEXT
SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN BETTER...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH SLOWING DOWN SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE 
ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EAST CENTRAL WI SWWD TO 
ERN IA AND NRN IL BY 00Z WED. VFR CIGS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A 
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 090912
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
412 AM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...THEN PRECIP/TSTM 
CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A FLAT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN 
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH REGIONAL RAOBS AND GOES PW 
SOUNDER SHOWING A DRY AIRMASS SPREADING OVER SRN WI WITH PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES BELOW A HALF INCH. MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING A BROAD SFC 
RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/GREAT LAKES.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...GFS/NAM/RUC IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A ZONAL UPPER FLOW 
PATTERN TODAY AND TONIGHT. WEAK S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLIDE 
QUICKLY EWD THRU THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER WITH A DRY AMS 
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH THIS 
FEATURE. OTHERWISE BROAD SFC HIGH TO SHIFT NEWD INTO THE OHIO 
VALLEY...WITH SRN WI IN A SWLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW. 850MB TEMPS 
WARM A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 11-12C RANGE BY AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS 
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80F. LAKE BREEZE TO RE-EMERGE 
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE USUAL COOLER BY THE LAKE. SFC DEWPOINTS TO 
REMAIN IN THE COMFORTABLE 40S TO LOW 50S. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE 
PATTERN TONIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. COULD SEE SOME 
FOG DEVELOP DEVELOP IN WRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DWPTS INCH 
UP...HOWEVER SHOULD BE CONFINED RIGHT ALONG WI RIVER VALLEY.

SUNDAY...EXPECTING UPPER PATTERN TO GRADUALLY AMPLIFY AS LARGE HIGH 
DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLAINS...WITH BROAD TROUGHING IN THE WEST. 
PERSISTENT S/SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEPER 
MOISTURE NWD INTO THE REGION...ALTHOUGH BEST AXIS TO REMAIN SOUTH 
AND WEST OF WI. GFS/NAM DO INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE 
DEVELOPING IN WRN SECTIONS BY AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH AMS TO REMAIN 
CAPPED WITH LACK OF STRONG TRIGGER. WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN PLACE. 
WEAK WAA AND GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 
80-85F RANGE...COOLER BY THE LAKE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE 
GREAT LAKES WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING TO AROUND 585-587DM. MODELS 
NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT PLACING UPPER RIDGE AXIS RIGHT THROUGH 
WI...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE CONFINED OVER IA/MN/MO. A SERIES OF 
WEAK S/W TROUGHS WILL BE SHUNTED NWD ALONG WEST SIDE OF RIDGE WITH 
LITTLE FORCING IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL 
CONTINUE TO INCREASE WITH SFC DWPTS RISING INTO THE LOW-MID 60S. 
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY BY 
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN VERY WEAK. DECIDED TO 
TRIM POPS OUT OF EASTERN AREAS MON-TUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE IN 
THE FAR WEST...DUE TO COMBO OF INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO FORCING. 
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY SUMMERLIKE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S 
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE CONUS...ALTHOUGH A 
SERIES OF S/W TROUGHS WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN PATTERN BY LATE IN THE 
WEEK. WITH WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY STILL IN PLACE HARD TO 
REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY...SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE WORDING 
FOR NOW.  


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.  LIKELY 
TO SEE A FEW CU AROUND 4K LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  WEAK 
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING SHORT WAVE MAY BRING SOME A 
PERIOD OF SCT MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 
BKN HIGH LEVEL CIGS REMAINING TO THE NORTH. VERY COOL LAKE TEMPS AS 
DEPICTED BY MODIS IMAGERY LIKELY TO INDUCE LAKE BREEZE AT KMKE BY 
EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MAF/MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 131930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CU WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE ON CURRENT RUC SOUNDINGS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. SOME CONCERN ON FOG. HOWEVER LOW LAYERS DRY...AND WITH
SHORT NIGHTS...ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE IN RIVER VALLEYS. LAST NIGHTS
MODIS 11UM - 3.9UM 1 KM RES FOG IMAGE DID NOT SHOW ANY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS. TODAYS GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIEST
AIRMASS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. WITH MORE MOISTURE...MAINLY AROUND 200-300 MB...EXPECT
SOMEWHAT LESS RADIATION AL COOLING. GOES SOUNDER DATA IS MUCH DRIER
IN THE MID LEVELS THAN RUC. GOES SOUNDER IS MORE IN LINE WITH NAM SOUNDINGS.

1 KM MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP SHOWING MID 50 TO NEAR 60 MID LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS...WITH NEAR SHORE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 15Z MODIS IMAGE IS AN EXCELLENT DATA SOURCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TRANSITION FROM OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION SATURDAY IS THE QUESTION. GFS HAS A
MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION...ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...WITH THE NAM SLOWER
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH SOME RIDGING STILL EVIDENT...WILL
TAKE MORE OF A NAM APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WILL STILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR THE MORE SOUTH
POSSIBILITY.

GFS ALSO BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO PLAY SUNDAY ...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING 850 MB FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE. OF COURSE IF NAM IS CORRECT...THIS PRECIP
WOULD BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND WAIT FOR FURTHER TRENDS IN THE
NEW MODEL RUNS.

12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE QUICKER GFS. ENSEMBLES WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE POPS. CRAS MODEL APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE
NAM.

.LONG TERM...

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS SHORTWAVE PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF. PREFER
THE SLOWER MOVEMENT SO WILL LINGER A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
TUESDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 48 HOURS. NO CIGS AND VSBYS AOB 6SM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 211946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN CONCERN IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. VERY UNSTABLE LIFTED
INDEX`S NEAR MINUS 10 OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA IN MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION PUSHED BOUNDARY
WELL WEST INTO EASTERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ACTUAL CLOUDS ON
BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LACK OF CU SEEN IN MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
LITTLE IN WAY OF SURFACE BASED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED. HOWEVER
MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI.

LOCAL 4 KM WRF4 BASED OFF 06Z GFS IS HANDLING CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS THE BEST. THIS TAKES ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN MN INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH WEAKENING
CONVECTION OVER THE THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
THE WRF4 TAKES THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND DRIVES IT SEWARD
JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS THE MCS WHICH WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL.

GOES SATELLITE DERIVED LI-S SHOW A STRONG LI GRADIENT WITH -7 OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO PLUS 7 OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN
ADDITION GOES SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO SHOW A STRONG
GRADIENT WITH 1.5 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 0.75
NEAR SHEBOYGAN. CI FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA WHICH WILL SHIELD THE VALUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 1757 Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS SHOW VERY COOL
WATERS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MI...WITH ONLY LOWER 50
TEMPS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE LAKE SHORE COOLING...AND INLAND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS FROM PREVIOUS UPWELLING. NOW WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST...EXPECT THESE WATERS TO WARM A LITTLE. JUST BEFORE CI
PUSHED EAST WAS ABLE TO GET GOES SOUNDER FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE IL
BORDER WITH LI OF -4 WITH 2.3 OVER SHEBOYGAN. SOUNDING SHOWS ANY
SHOWERS OVER THE SHEBOYGAN THIS EVENING WOULD BE FROM DYING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WOULD EVAPORATE
THESE RATHER QUICKLY.

PREFER GFS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS
HAS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NAM AND U.W. CRAS MODEL. AS SUCH WILL HAVE POPS LOWER THAN
NAM MOS POPS.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BY WEDNESDAY JET BECOMES
MORE ZONAL...INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION POTENTIAL AS BOUNDARY
GETS CLOSER. NOSE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IMPACTS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
MODEL TRENDS ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND KMSN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SLOW MOVING SURFACE AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
SAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST. SO WILL CARRY VCTS THERE TROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING AT SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA FOR BEST CHANCE FOR MCS TONIGHT...AS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THAT AREA. STILL...WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR THUNDER
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KMSN INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AS KMSN MAY
BE ON FAR EASTERN END OF MCS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS IN LATER TAFS.
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
NOW...UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED ON CONVECTION
PLACEMENT AND TIMING.



&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 221951 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
251 PM CDT FRI JUN 22 2007

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO ADJUST WORDING

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CONCERN IS ON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. BOUNDARY WELL WEST ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. VERY UNSTABLE LIFTED INDEX`S NEAR MINUS 9 OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA IN MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
BOUNDARY. MAIN PROBLEM IS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SHOULD CLIP
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. LOTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS. RUC
SHOWS STABLE LAYER FROM 850 MB TO NEAR 700 MB. THIS SHOULD ACT AS
ENOUGH OF A CAP TO BRING MAINLY ELEVATED MOIST CONVECTION. LIMITED
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

PREFER NAM PRECIP DEPICTION...WITH MAIN DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
FARTHER SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL
GENERATED SHOWERS WITH UPPER VORT.

CIRRUS PREVENTING DEPICTION OF GOES SATELLITE DERIVED LI-S IN
UNSTABLE AREA NEAR BOUNDARY. LI`S NEAR PLUS 10 OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF THE CIRRUS.
SOUTHEAST. 17Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS SHOW WATERS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF LAKE MI HAVE WARMED FROM YESTERDAY...NOW IN THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60 AS UPWELLING HAS ENDED WITH PERSISTENT EAST FLOW.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY NIGHT JET
BECOMES MORE ZONAL...INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION POTENTIAL AS
MAIN SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. NOSE
OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IMPACTS THE AREA ON MONDAY. WILL STILL STAY
DRY...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THIS FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WARM FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER OVER THE REGION THAT PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT
RAIN MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT NO REDUCED
VISIBILITY OR LOW CEILINGS WITH IT. WILL MENTION 10SM -SHRA IN KMSN
TAF FOR AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LIKE THE LOOK OF THE 12KM
NAM IN KEEPING MOST OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA FOR LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
EASTERN PORTIONS BRUSHING SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. STILL MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN OR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH CEILINGS FROM TIME TO
TIME...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT
TO LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO HELPING BRING LOWER DEW POINTS INTO THE
AREA...WHICH SHOULD HELP MAINTAIN VFR CEILINGS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 252006 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
227 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AFTERNOON CU TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LACK OF
HEATING. PREFER RUC SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING THAT HAVE A BIT MORE
CAP WITH CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH LACK OF TRIGGER...AND
MODERATE CAP...POTENTIAL FOR MOIST CONVECTION IS LOW.

LOW LEVELS MORE MOIST...BUT WINDS PICK UP JUST ABOVE SHALLOW
SURFACE INVERSION. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND SOME
STRATUS...BUT NO ADVISORY DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
SHORE...STILL COOLER THAN ADVECTING DEW POINTS.

LOCAL 4KM WRF BASED ON NAM TILES SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MEAN RH IN
THE 1000 TO 850 MB LAYER...SO STATUS SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. 12Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS SOME AROUND 700MB. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT TOO UNSTABLE...AND SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER NAM CONTINUES
TO BRING CAPES TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS AFFECTS OF RATHER STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. GFS AND ECMWF REMAINS VERY SIMILAR.

ON GFS AND NAM...COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW MOIST CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING
DIURNAL LULL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN AS FROPA COMES
DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 2500 J/KG AVAILABLE ON
NAM...MOIST CONVECTION AND QPF INCREASE. WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK...HOWEVER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF INCREASING UPPER JET MAX
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN UPWARD MOTION WITH FROPA IN THE
SOUTHEAST. CRAS DOES SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG FRONTAL BAND IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT MAIN COLD THUNDERSTORM TOPS OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND FRONT.

MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS THEN WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE...BUT
PREFER STRONGER RIDGE ON ECMWF. AS RESULT WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...LK FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS 4-5SM HZ TIL ARND 03Z...THEN
MVFR VSBYS IN BR HZ WL BCM WDSPRD. XPCT IFR VSBYS BTWN 1-3SM IN FOG
AFT 06Z AND CONTG TIL 14Z. 3-5SM HZ FM 14-17Z TUE BCMG VFR CONDS FOR
TUE AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLD LIFR CIGS DVLPG BTWN 08-14Z.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 261856
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
156 PM CDT TUE JUN 26 2007

.SHORT TERM...BUFKIT RUC SOUNDINGS ARE ESTIMATING SURFACE
DEW POINTS BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES. RUC MODEL INDICATING CAPES OF AROUND
1500 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MORE MOIST NAM AROUND 2500 J/KG.
GOES SATELLITE DERIVED LI-S ARE AROUND MINUS 2.5 MORE
IN LINE WITH RUC SOUNDING. NAM SHOWING CAP AROUND 650 MB WITH RUC
MORE A BROAD AREA OF MORE STABLE LAPSE RATES FROM 800 TO 550 MB.
CURRENT SHOWERS HAVING HARD TIME BREAKING THROUGH THIS...BUT WITH
INCREASED HEATING THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THEY MAY REACH THE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE 550 MB. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN A FEW STORMS
DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL OF 44 THSD
FT. THATAE DIFFERENCE FROM DRY MID LEVELS TO MOIST SURFACE VALUE
AROUND 35 DEGREES. ENOUGH FOR WET MICRO BURST POTENTIAL IF THE
STORMS DO REACH THE EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL.

1633Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS SHOW WATERS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE
OF LAKE MI HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S....A BIT COOLER NORTH OF
SHEBOYGAN.

MORE FOCUSED ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO
REMAIN WELL WEST OVER MN. THUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED PULSE
STORM VARIETY MAINLY INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY.

UPPER SHORTWAVE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TO
JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA...WITH TRAILING TROUGH/COLD FRONT TO MOVE
SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...REACHING SOUTH CENTRAL WI
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD DUE TO
DIURNAL STABILIZATION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FAR
WEST.

MODELS VERY SIMILAR WITH COLD FRONT EXITING THE FAR SOUTHEAST LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING.  AS FROPA COMES DURING PEAK
HEATING OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST MODELS INCREASE CAPE TO 3000 J/KG
OFF BUFKIT ON NAM...AS A RESULT MOIST CONVECTION AND QPF
INCREASE FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  ALTHOUGH STRONGEST Q-G FORCING
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN IS IN A
FAVORABLE POSITION IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN 80-90KT
UPPER JET ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  LIMITING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...0-6KM LAYER SHEAR
GENERALLY 20 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTH. CLOUD COVER TO COOL HIGH TEMPS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WI.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND FRONT. 4 KM WRF...NAM AND EVEN GFS PICK
UP ON THIS.

.LONG TERM...

MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS THEN WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW
QUICK THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN. ECMWF AND GFS WEAKENS
THE RIDGE BY TUESDAY...SO AM LEANING TOWARD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS OVERSPREAD SRN WI WITH ISOLD
SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT OVER MN
WILL THEN MOVE SEWD ACROSS SRN WI ON WED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS
ARE FORECAST WITH MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVER
SE WI WED AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL BUT AREAS OF MVFR HAZE IS POSSIBLE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 280915
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
415 AM CDT THU JUN 28 2007

FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER IN SHORT TERM...THEN A
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

00Z 500/300MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A POTENT UPPER TROUGH INVOF OF
HUDSON BAY...UPSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. 00Z RAOB PLOTS
INDICATING PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE SHUNTED SOUTH OF WI AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW N/NWLY. IR IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NEWD
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH A BROAD AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS LURKING
JUST TO OUR NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH DECENT COLD ADVECTION. AT THE
SFC...1030MB SFC HIGH BLDG OVER NRN PLAINS WITH STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SRN MI INTO SRN IOWA.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CONUS NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH
TROUGHING AT THE COASTS AND MEAN RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES SLOWLY
TRANSLATING EAST. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES THRU SATURDAY. PRIMARY
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CLOUD COVER...AS WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STRATOCUMULUS TO OUR NORTH ADVECTS SOUTHWARD PER LOW LEVEL CAA.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSES RATES WITH SUFFICIENT
SATURATION AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER FOR A SCT/BKN DECK BETWEEN 4-6K
FEET. BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER INTO THE MOSTLY CLOUDY RANGE /BKN CIRRUS
OVERHEAD AS WELL/ ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY SEE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE
TOWARDS SUNSET. NELY WIND FLOW AROUND DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH WILL
KEEP WINDS OFF THE BIG LAKE TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY...CLOUD COVER
CONTAMINATING 1KM MODIS LAKE TEMPERATURE IMAGERY BUT ASSUMING LAKE
TEMPS GNRLY IN THE UPR50S-LOW60S...WILL FORECAST 60S LAKESIDE AND
LOW 70S WELL INLAND. MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION...WITH ONLY A FEW
FAIR WX CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS AROUND 9-10C
TODAY TO RISE AROUND 13C BY SATURDAY...SO A SLOW WARMING TREND ON
TAP. WEAK N/NELY FLOW REGIME COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING LK BREEZE
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER LAKESIDE.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
GFS/GEFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...VERY
TYPICAL PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS SFC HIGH SLIDES SLOWLY
EWD...SWLY RETURN FLOW WL PRODUCE WAA PATTERN WITH 850 TEMPS PROGGED
TO APPROACH 18-20C BY TUESDAY...WITH RESULTANT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE. BIG QUESTIONS IS MCS POTENTIAL OVER OUR
AREA AS UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDE OVER TOP OF RIDGE...THEN ATTEMPT
TO ROLL SEWD ON ERN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE AXIS. AS USUAL PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO TIMING...AMOUNT OF
DESTABILIZATION AND CAPPING AS 700MB TEMPS JUMP AOA 10C. SHEAR
PROFILES USUALLY FAVORABLE IN THIS PATTERN FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON PATTERN EVOLUTION
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THERE IS DEFINITELY POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG
BOOMERS SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEK...IT IS THE FOURTH OF JULY AFTER ALL.


&&

.AVIATION...EXPC CIRRUS SHIELD TO THIN THIS MRNG AS DRIER NORTHWEST
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE INCRS.  EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL
SC OVER NRN WI SLIDING SLOWLY SWD SHOULD CONT TO ADVECT ACRS CENTRAL
INTO SRN WI THIS MRNG.  COMBINATION OF INCRG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN PERIOD OF BKN-OVC SC OVR SRN WI.
DRIER AIR PREVENTS SIGNIFICANT INVERSION SETTING UP AT KMKE SO MORE
SCT-BKN EXPCD IN ERN AREAS THIS AFTN WHILE WRN AREAS EXPCD TO CLEAR
IN THE LATE AFTN/EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MAF/MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 292010
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON COOL AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR NEXT
WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO USHER IN COOL
AND DRY AIR FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW NORMAL AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH LOWS NEAR
50. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY LATE...BUT
I EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE TOO DRY FOR APPRECIABLE FOG FORMATION SO I
LEFT IT OUT OF THE GRIDS.

MORE OF THE SAME FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH VERY SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST. SLIGHTLY WARMER H85
TEMPERATURES /FROM NEAR 9C TODAY TO 11C SATURDAY/ AND THE STRONG
LATE JUNE SUN ANGLE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO INCH HIGHER. OF
COURSE WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW...AND LOWER 60 DEGREE LAKE MICHIGAN
WATERS AS SHOWN ON THE 1KM SSEC MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP MAP...IT
WILL BE A BIT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE.

A BRIEF REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR AROUND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH WILL CAUSE H85 TEMPS TO ONCE AGAIN DIP TO AROUND 9C ON
SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 70S NEAR
THE LAKE AND AROUND 80 NEAR MADISON...AND ARE NEAR GUIDANCE...BUT THESE MAY
BE A BIT TOO HIGH IF TODAY AND THURSDAY ARE ANY GUIDE. THE
MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT WILL BRING HIGHS DOWN A BIT IF NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE LOOMING IN THE PLAINS WILL FINALLY MAKE PROGRESS EAST AS
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH DIPS SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH H85
TEMPS INCREASING TO NEARLY 15C. DEW POINTS TO ALSO
INCREASE...MAKING FOR A STICKIER DAY THAN IN RECENT PAST.

A STRONG CAP AS INDICTED ON SOUNDINGS NEAR 750MB...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH...WILL PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AS A RIDGE RIDER IMPULSE PASSES THROUGH. I DID
KEEP SCHC TO CHC POPS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF MY CWA DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW THESE SUMMERTIME MCS/S EVOLVE. THIS MATCHES
WELL WITH THE SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK.

THE REMNANTS AND COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE POTENTIAL MCS MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT COULD LAY OUT A BOUNDARY TUESDAY WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. DEPENDING UPON CLOUD COVER...IT COULD BE
ANOTHER TOASTY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

WEDNESDAY /INDEPENDENCE DAY/ IS SHAPING UP TO BE THE BEST DAY FOR
CONVECTION. ENSEMBLE POPS ARE IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY...BUT ONCE
AGAIN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF THESE MCS/S...I AM ONLY WILLING TO RAISE
TO 40-50. I PREFER THE GFS...BUT NOT QUITE AS ROBUST GIVEN ITS
TYPICAL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN ADVANCE OF A DISTURBANCE SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...SO AMPLE INSTABILTY SHOULD BE TAPPED. SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE HIGHEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS.
SPC INCLUDED ALL OF CWA IN SVR THREAT ON WED. AS A PREVIOUS
FORECASTER NOTED A COUPLE NIGHTS AGO...NATURE MAY BE COMPETING FOR
THE BETTER LIGHT SHOW.

GIVEN THE HIGH MODEL BIAS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP IN THESE
SITUATIONS...H85 TEMPS EXCEEDING 18C...AND A WARM TUESDAY NIGHT
NEAR 70F...I WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS ON THE 4TH OF JULY
TO NEAR 90F. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S OR NEAR 70...HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 95.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY. KEPT A CHC POP FOR STORMS IN FOR THURSDAY IN CASE THE
FRONT DECIDES TO SLOW...AS IS OFTEN DOES THIS TIME OF YEAR. COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AS COOL THIS TIME AROUND...DUE TO A MILDER
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...BROAD SFC HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE A DRY N/NELY FLOW OVER SRN WI. CELLULAR STRATOCUMULUS
DECK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KMKE AND WEST OF KMSN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET...WITH ONLY SCT/BKN CIRRUS STREAMING
OVERHEAD. LIGHTER BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEARING MAY RESULT IN
PATCHY LIGHT FOG LATER TNGT...MAINLY OVER WI RIVER VALLEY. WEAK
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING SEWD THRU WI SATURDAY WILL PRODUCE A
BAND OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS DURING AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

BORGHOFF/FOWLE

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 060942 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
409 AM CDT FRI JUL 6 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY 
TODAY...THEN HOW HIGH WILL THE MERCURY SOAR THIS WEEKEND?

00Z 500/250MB ANALYSIS INDICATED UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES/ERN CONUS WITH IMPRESSIVE RIDGING OVER THE WRN CONUS. 500MB 
HEIGHTS IN THE 596-598DM RANGE FROM AZ NWD INTO WA/ID YIELDING 
BLISTERING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 100S IN MANY LOCALES ACROSS THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS BLOB OF HEAT WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT EWD 
TOWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND...MORE ON THIS LATER. OTWR NWLY 
FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE AMS TRYING TO ADVECT SOME DRIER AIR 
INTO GREAT LAKES WITH GOES/MODIS TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCTS SHOWING 
PWS DIPPING AOB 0.75 INCHES...WITH SFC TDS GNRLY IN THE 50S 
UPSTREAM. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING CLEAR SKIES OVER ALL 
OF SRN WI.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...UPPER S/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES TO 
SLIDE NEWD INTO NEW ENGLAND ALLOWING RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE 
CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS...WITH WI REMAINING IN A NWLY FLOW ALOFT. NOT 
REALLY PICKING UP ANY DISCERNIBLE S/W TROUGHS ON WV IMAGERY AND 
GFS/NAM AGREE ON LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER FORCING TODAY. MID 
LEVELS ALSO PROGGED TO WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS 
SHOWING DECENT STABLE LAYER FORMING AROUND 650MB. SCATTERED CU 
LIKELY TO DEVELOP PER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES HOWEVER WITH TDS 
HOLDING IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AND ABOVE MENTIONED CAP...WILL KEEP 
FCST DRY. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR 
TWO IN THE EAST...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE WOULD BE VERY LIMITED. 
SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL WAA 
PATTERN TO COMMENCE TOWARDS MORNING AS 850MB WINDS BECOME SWLY. 
GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG WAA REGIME TO CONTINUE AS LOW 
LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST 
GFS/NAM/SREF IN WARMING 850MB TEMPS IN THE 19-20C RANGE BY 00Z 
SUN...WHICH SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S. DEGREE OF 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AT THIS 
TIME...SO WILL LEAN ON MOS VALUES IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR NOW...WHICH 
SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICIES IN THE 90-95F RANGE. AMS SHOULD REMAIN 
CAPPED OVER SRN WI AS 700MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 10C...THUS WILL 
MAINTAIN DRY FCST. WITH WINDS STAYING UP ON SATURDAY NIGHT /925MB 
WINDS 20-30KTS/ OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW 
70S.         

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HOTTEST DAY STILL APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY AS 
850MB TEMPS RISE TO 21-23C...WITH 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES IN THE 
580-581DM RANGE. LOCAL STUDY FROM PREVIOUS HEAT EVENTS INDICATES 
THESE VALUES SUPPORT TEMPS IN THE MID-UPR 90S...WHICH AGREES WELL 
WITH MAVMOS GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS FORECAST. BIGGER QUESTIONS 
CONTINUES TO BE MOISTURE/DEWPOINT VALUES AND ASSOCIATED HEAT 
INDICIES. GFS/NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ATTEMPTING TO POOL AHEAD 
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...HOWEVER STRONG 
HORIZONTAL/VERTICAL MIXING /MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 4-5K FEET/ 
EXPECTED TO KEEP TD VALUES MAINLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. THUS HEAT 
INDICIES GNERLLY AROUND 95 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WELL BELOW HEAT 
ADVISORY CRITERIA. IN ANY EVENT...SUNDAY LIKELY TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR SO WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT HEAT
POTENTIAL IN HWO.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DECENT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SLIDE SWD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY 
NIGHT FOR CHANCE OF TSTMS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY 
NIGHT/MONDAY GIVEN INSTABILITY/SHEAR ALTHOUGH BEST POTENTIAL APPEARS 
TO BE NORTH OF CWA. GFS THEN TRIES TO HANG UP BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF 
CWA OVER NRN IL...HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH PLACEMENT WILL 
KEEP LOW CHANCES OF PRECIP IN FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HEAT WAVE 
WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH TEMPS ON MONDAY FALLING INTO THE 70S-80S IN 
WAKE OF COLD FRONT AS WIND BECOME N/NELY. GENERALLY SEASONAL TEMPS 
THEN FCST THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...MAIN MORNING FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH PATCHY AREAS OF 
IFR FOG...MAINLY IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.  ANY FOG WOULD 
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 14Z. E WIDESPREAD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 
MORE STABLE LAYERS ABOVE 750 MB.  WITH DRIER SURFACE DEWPOINTS DO 
NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.   

THEN CONCERN WOULD BE FOR PATCHY IFR FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT 
SURFACE WINDS.  HOWEVER WITH SHORT NIGHT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT 
SHOW SURFACE LAYERS REACHING SATURATION.  ANY FOG WOULD LIKELY BE IN 
THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FOWLE/HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 302016
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 PM CDT MON JUL 30 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED CUMULUS INLAND. CLEAR SKIES BEHIND LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY
NOT AS DEFINED TODAY AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. LAKE TEMPS OFF 1 KM
MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S...WITH A POCKET OF
MID 70S TEMPS OVER THE OPEN WATERS EAST OF RACINE. THIS WARM WATER
ALSO LIMITING LAKE BREEZE STRENGTH. IT`S A BIT OUTSIDE THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS SHOW FASCINATING EDDY
STRUCTURE OVER HUDSON BAY. CU WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY EARLY THIS
EVENING. NAM SHOWS LIMITED FOG POTENTIAL...BUT STILL EXPECT FOG IN
THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY LIKE LAST 2 NIGHTS.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN
TUESDAY...BEFORE INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN CAUSES RIDGE TO FLATTEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TUESDAY AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RISE TO NEAR 20C. SURFACE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...SO WEAK LAKE BREEZE COOLING MAINLY AREAS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE LAKE. NO STRONG LOW LEVEL CAP TUESDAY...BUT CAPE
VALUES LESS THAN 200 MB DUE TO FAIRLY STABLE LAPSE RATES IN THE
MID LEVELS.


.LONG TERM...
12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEW MODELS
SLOW WEAKENING COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH UPPER DIVERGENCE WELL
NORTH WITH CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. HAVE KEPT POPS MAINLY IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND HAS LESSENED AS BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW NEXT SHORTWAVE BECOMING CUTOFF IN PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT THE SURFACE LOW IS MUCH WEAKER. UPPER FLOW
STILL BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER POPS WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  OTHER THAN SPOTTY AFTERNOON CU AND A
COUPLE REMNANT PATCHES OF ANVIL CIRRUS FROM DISTANT STORMS IN
ONTARIO...SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH TOMORROW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/CRAVEN

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 311942
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
242 PM CDT TUE JUL 31 2007

.SHORT TERM...
CAP HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCREASING WITH MORE STABLE LAPSE RATES FROM
800 TO 600 MB. AS SUCH ONLY FEW CUMULUS INLAND. LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY IS RELATIVELY WEAK TODAY AS WINDS ARE VERY LIGHT. LAKE
TEMPS OFF 1 KM MODIS IMAGERY SHOWS LAKE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
70S NEAR SHORE...WITH A BAND OF MID 70S TEMPS OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. THIS WARM WATER ALSO LIMITING LAKE BREEZE STRENGTH. LOW
LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT AFTER AFTERNOON MIXING
CEASES. AS SUCH EXPECT FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY LIKE
LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...WITH PATCHY FOG A BIT MORE PREVALENT ELSEWHERE.


UPPER RIDGE OVER WISCONSIN TONIGHT...BEFORE INFLUENCE OF
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA CAUSES RIDGE TO
FLATTEN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.THE SLOW RISE IN TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AROUND 20C. SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST...BUT WILL STILL BRING
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LIMITED COOLING MAINLY IN AREAS WITHIN A FEW
MILES OF THE LAKE. ONLY A WEAK LOW LEVEL CAP AROUND 700 MB...WITH
CAPE VALUES JUST OVER 500 J/KG DUE TO FAIRLY STABLE LAPSE RATES
IN THE MID LEVELS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH
UPPER DIVERGENCE WELL NORTH WITH CANADIAN SHORTWAVE. HAVE KEPT
POPS MAINLY IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.


.LONG TERM...

NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEKEND AS BOTH 12Z GFS AND NEW
12Z ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  UPPER FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL AS GFS SHOWS A LOW PUSHING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT AT LEAST ONE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL JET AND ADDED
MOISTURE. THEN AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING BOUNDARY.

&&

.AVIATION...
SFC RDG HIGH PRES WL RMN ACRS WRN GRTLKS RGN THRU 00Z
THUR. VFR CONDS UFN XCPT PATCHY MVFR VSBYS BTWN 10-13Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 030922
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
422 AM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON COOLER AND MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
TODAY...THEN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

00Z 500/300MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A CLOSED UPPER LOW INVOF OF HUDSON 
BAY WITH A BROAD UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE 4-CORNERS AREA...VERY 
TYPICAL LOCATION FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLACEMENT OF THESE
FEATURES PRODUCING A DEEP...DRY NWLY FLOW OVER THE NRN
PLAINS/GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SFC...WEAK TROF/COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF WI...ALLOWING SOME MUCH DRIER AIR
TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. IN FACT...04Z 4KM MODIS PW SOUNDER
SHOWING PWS FALLING AOB 0.40" OVER MN/NRN WI CORRESPONDING WITH A
BROAD AREA OF UPPER 40S-LOW 50S SFC DWPTS. 1KM MODIS LAKE SFC TEMP
PRODUCT INDICATING NARROW RIBBON OF UPWELLING ALONG WRN SHORE OF
LK MICHIGAN DUE TO OFFSHORE WINDS. IR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING
INDICATING CRYSTAL CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE STATE OF WI.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHAPING UP TO BE A SPECTACULAR DAY FOR EARLY AUGUST AS 
WEAK SFC HIGH SLIDES OVER WI. EXPECTING SUNNY SKIES AND UNSEASONABLY 
LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. COMBO OF DRY AIR AND SUNSHINE 
WILL YIELD STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THUS MIXING 16-17C DOWN 
FROM 850MB STILL RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID-UPR 80S INLAND. WEAK 
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COOL LK TEMPS OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW LAKE BREEZE 
TO DEVELOP BTWN NOON-2PM WITH LAKESHORE COMMUNITIES BECOMING A BIT 
COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SFC 
HIGH SLIPS EWD. PREFERRED THE COOLER MAVMOS TEMPS DUE TO DRY AIR AND 
LIGHT WINDS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY FOG 
DEVELOP...HOWEVER AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND CONFINED 
MAINLY TO RIVER VALLEYS.  

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER S/W CURRENTLY OVER THE 
GREAT BASIN TO SHIFT EWD THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY EARLY 
SATURDAY...WITH CORRESPONDING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP 
SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS. 00Z SUITE OF SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE 
TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE BY 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH NAM KEEPING BEST LIFT/PRECIP NORTH WITH 
THE GFS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH.  AT THIS POINT...CONFIDENCE RATHER 
LOW IN EITHER SOLUTION SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS WEST SATURDAY 
AFTERNOON WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FAR EAST. BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER 
ISENTROPIC LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES ACROSS THE AREA. STILL SEEING DISCREPANCIES
AMONGST THE MODELS WHERE THE BEST AXIS OF LIFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
RESIDE SO BASICALLY KEPT THE INHERITED FORECAST IN PLACE AND WILL
HOPE FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS DURING NEXT SEVERAL RUNS.

EXTENDED...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE OF PRECIP 
EARLY SUNDAY ALTHOUGH BELIEVE RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH 
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS THEN SHOW BNDRY HANGING UP INVOF OF SRN 
WI EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECTING NEWD THRU 
THE AREA. WILL KEEP AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR 
NOW AS CONFIDENCE LOW IN EXACT LOCATION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. AT THIS 
POINT...NOT EXPECTING ANY ALL DAY RAINS BUT POTENTIAL THERE FOR 
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH 850MB TEMPS PROGGED TO 
HOOVER AROUND 20C...KEPT TEMPS GNRLLY IN THE MID-UPR 80S WHICH 
MATCHED UP WELL WITH MEXMOS GUIDANCE. 

&&

.AVIATION...INFLUX OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR AND LINGERING BOUNDARY 
LAYER WINDS PREVENTING WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MRNG.    
OTHERWISE EXPC VFR CONDITIONS WITH VERY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN 
PLACE TDY AND TNGT.  SHALLOW PATCHY GROUND FOG LIKELY TNGT AHEAD OF 
APRCHNG CI SHIELD FROM PLAINS CONVECTION AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS 
MUCH LIGHTER.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MAF/MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 130959 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
425 AM CDT MON AUG 13 2007

.DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS ON SEVERE WX THREAT WITH 
POTENTIAL MCS TONIGHT.

00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED A STRONG UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER 
THE SRN PLAINS WITH PEAK 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 600DM. EVEN MORE 
IMPRESSIVE IS EXPANSIVE NATURE OF 595DM CONTOUR...COVERING NEARLY 
THE ENTIRE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...IMPRESSIVE! WV IMAGERY INDICATING A 
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER NRN PERIPHERY OF UPR RIDGE...WITH 
MAIN S/W OF INTEREST TO SRN WI CURRENTLY OVER NRN MT.  ALSO HAVE TO 
MENTION NUMEROUS SMOKE PLUMES /PYROCUMULUS CLOUDS/ OVER ID/WY/MT AS 
SEEN NICELY ON YESTERDAYS 1KM MODIS VIS IMAGERY. WHILE NOT UNCOMMON 
TO SEE FIRES AND SMOKE PLUMES THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE WESTERN 
US...BEEN AWHILE SINCE IVE SEEN THIS CONCENTRATION/MAGNITUDE OF 
PLUMES. SEE WRITE-UP ON NWS-MKE WEBPAGE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTWR 
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVER SRN WI THIS MORNING AS SFC HIGH SETTLES INTO 
THE STATE.

TODAY...NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE 500MB HIGH FURTHER WEST 
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES AS ABOVE MENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER MT SLIDES 
E/SEWD THRU THE DAKOTAS. MEANWHILE...SFC RIDGE OVER NRN WI THIS 
MORNING TO SHIFT EWD INTO MI THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER 
ND/MN IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER WAVE. RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER ELY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MAJORITY OF CWA...WITH BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN AND DIABATIC HEATING TO TAKE PLACE INVOF OF WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM IA NWD INTO MN WHERE PLUME OF 70+ SFC DWPTS
EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING CWA TO REMAIN STRONGLY
CAPPED THROUGH 00Z TUE AS 700MB TEMPS OF 10-12C SPREAD ACRS WRN
WI...WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ELY FLOW TO KEEP TEMPS IN
THE 70S IN ERN ZONES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S WELL INLAND. BESIDES
UPPER LEVEL SMOKE/HAZE...SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY.

TONIGHT...BY EARLY EVENING ATTENTION TURNS TO MN WHERE VIGOROUS 
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE AROUND 00Z /FROM MINNEAPOLIS NORTH TO 
DULUTH/ AS INHIBITION WEAKENS DUE TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS 
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASES PER STRENGTHENING LLJ. 
ALTHOUGH SFC MOISTURE WILL GENERALLY BE LACKING OVER CWA...STRONG 
MOISTURE ADVECTION ON NOSE OF LLJ TO QUICKLY BOOST 850MB DWPTS 
AROUND 16C. LOCAL 4KM WRF-ARW MODELS AND 4KM WRF-NMM FROM SPC SHOW 
DEVELOPING MCS ROLLING S/SEWD THRU WI AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EXACT
PLACEMENT OF STRONGEST CONVECTION STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. AT 
THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TRACK OF MCS WILL BE ALONG AXIS 
OF BEST INSTABILITY...GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM WAUSAU TO MADISON 
TO MONROE WHERE MUCAPES BUILD TO 1500-2500 J/KG AFTER 06Z. SEVERE 
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KNOTS...AND 
STEEP MID LEVEL LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7-7.5C/KM. BIGGEST THREAT IN 
OUR AREA LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY IF COLD POOL BECOMES 
ESTABLISHED. WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF 
LINE FROM MONTELLO TO MADISON TO MONROE...WHICH MATCHES UP WELL WITH 
HIGHEST RISK FROM SPC. COULD SEE SEVERE THREAT PROGRESS 
EWD...HOWEVER WITH INSTABILITY MORE IN QUESTION WILL NOT MENTION IN 
ERN ZONES FOR NOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE...HOWEVER 
FAST MOVEMENT OF MCS SHOULD KEEP DURATION OF HVY RAINFALL IN CHECK.

TUESDAY...PROPAGATION SPEED OF MCS WILL DICTATE AREAL COVERAGE OF 
MORNING SHOWERS...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS BY LATE MORNING. MODEL 
SOUNDINGS SHOWING STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2500 J/KG/ DVLPG BY 18Z 
...HOWEVER DIABATIC HEATING MAY BE OVERDONE DUE TO LINGERING CLOUDS. 
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS TO SWEEP THRU AREA BY LATE 
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BELIEVE CAP WILL HANG TOUGH AS 850MB TEMPS 
APPROACH 22-23C.

EXTENDED...RATHER ACTIVE NWLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUE...WITH CHANCES 
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUING UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. GFS INDICATING 
POSSIBILITY OF COOLER WX SPREADING INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY INTO THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...SHORT TERM PROBLEM OF SPOTTY MVFR FOG WITH LCL IFR VSBYS 
IN FAR SE WI WILL END AS LEADING EDGE OF DRIER AIR MARKED BY NARROW 
SC BAND MOVING THRU MKE FILTERS DOWN TO WI/IL BORDER BY 12Z. THEN 
SCT TO BKN VFR SKY AND VFR VSBYS INTO LATE TONIGHT. AS SFC 
HI SHIFTS EWD EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO DEVELOP ON NOSE OF 
MOIST RETURN LOW-LVL FLOW NR KMSP THIS EVENING...WITH TIMING OF NAM 
12 QPF PREFERRED. THIS KEEPS SRN WI DRY THRU 06Z TUE...WITH MAINLY 
MVFR CONDITIONS AS COMPLEX MOVES THRU BETWEEN 09-12Z WITH LOCATIONS 
WEST OF AN OXFORD...MADISON TO MONROE LINE HAVING THE HIER 
PROBABILITY OF SEEING IFR CIGS VSBYS WITH HVY RAIN AND SEVERE WIND 
GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS... THOUGH ALL OF SRN WI COULD SEE THE 
STRONG/SEVERE WINDS DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF EXPECTED COMPLEX.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FOWLE/REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 302008
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
308 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE ON FOG POTENTIAL. RUC SOUNDING INDICATE
SOMEWHAT MORE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THAN NAM. DESPITE LOW DEW POINTS GFS
MOS MIN TEMP AT MADISON IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENT DEW
POINTS. EVEN SO...THINK FOG WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TYPICAL RIVER
VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS...RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. EXPECT DENSE FOG
IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE QUICK TO
DISSIPATE. 

SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE SO MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL DOMINATE. MODIS
WATER TEMPS SHOW LAKE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S. WITH LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO FALL NEAR THE LAKE
THIS EVENING UNTIL LAND BREEZE SETS IN DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER JET ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA TO DROP INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED TROF AXIS AT SURFACE SURFACE WEAKENS AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH. CURRENT HIGH OVER THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY...REACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE EXITS.

.LONG TERM...

ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVE...AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD AFFECT
MAINLY AREAS TO OUR NORTH.

STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST U.S. ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREAS ON INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AS TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR UFN XCPT PTCY MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BTWN 09-14Z. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 311948
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
248 PM CDT FRI AUG 31 2007

.SHORT TERM...
ANY REMAINING AFTERNOON CU WILL BE QUICK TO DISSIPATE. MAIN
FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE ON GROUND FOG POTENTIAL. MODIS
PRECIPITABLE WATER INDICATING AROUND 0.90 INCHES UP FROM AROUND
0.53 INCHES YESTERDAY EVENING. SINCE MUCH OF THIS INCREASE IS IN
THE MID LEVELS...EXPECT RADIATION CONDITIONS TO BE A BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FOG TONIGHT. HOWEVER DEW POINTS ARE A BIT
HIGHER...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS STILL THINK FOG WILL
FORM MAINLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS. GFS MOS MIN TEMPS
SEEM A BIT TOO COOL AGAIN TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE SO MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL DOMINATE. MODIS
WATER TEMPS SHOW LAKE TEMPERATURES RATHER UNIFORMLY IN THE UPPER
60S. WITH LIGHT EAST FLOW...TEMPS SHOULD BE SLOWER TO FALL NEAR
THE LAKE THIS EVENING UNTIL LAND BREEZE SETS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IN WEST TO NORTHWEST UPPER JET ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CLOUD BAND WITH ASSOCIATED
TROF AXIS AT SURFACE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WEAKENS AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH. DOUBT ANY CLOUDS FROM THIS
WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. CURRENT HIGH OVER
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY...REACHING THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES SATURDAY AS SHORTWAVE REACHES NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. HOWEVER LIMITED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MAX
MOVING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR REGION MAY ADD TO SOME UPWARD
MOTION...BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY
AIR AROUND 5 THSD FT AND FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CAP SHOULD PREVENT DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION. 

.LONG TERM...

STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST U.S. ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREAS ON INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AS TRAILING COLD
FRONT PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST. LATEST GFS INDICATED
SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AS UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. 

&&

.AVIATION...EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG BETWEEN 05Z AND 14Z...HIGH 
PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. 


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 012013
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 PM CDT SAT SEP 1 2007

.SHORT TERM...
FOG POTENTIAL NOT AS FAVORABLE TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH TO LINGER
THIS EVENING...THEN LOW LEVEL FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE
TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL STRONG ENOUGH INVERSION
KEEP SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. HOWEVER DEW POINTS ARE A BIT
HIGHER...AND WITH CLEAR SKIES THINK SOME FOG WILL FORM IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS BEFORE WINDS IN THE 2 THSD FT LAYER
INCREASE. AGAIN GFS MOS MIN TEMPS SEEM JUST A BIT TOO COOL AGAIN
TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH TO DOMINATE SO MESOSCALE EFFECTS WILL DOMINATE. MODIS
WATER TEMPS SHOW LAKE TEMPERATURES RATHER UNIFORMLY IN THE UPPER
60S IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS...BUT WERE A BIT HIGHER MID LAKE IN
SOUTHERN 1/4 OF LAKE. AS A RESULT ANY SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WOULD
TEND TO KEEP LAKE SHORE A BIT WARMER.

ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG SURFACE LOW MOVES TOWARD HUDSON/JAMES BAY REGION
SUNDAY...WEAK TRAILING COLD FRONT MAY REACH PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER LIMITED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET MAX MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION MAY ADD TO SOME UPWARD MOTION...BUT
THIS WOULD BE MAINLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAP AROUND 5
THSD FT SHOULD PREVENT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION MONDAY. CLOUD
BAND...MAINLY MID LEVEL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST U.S. ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREAS ON INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT.

BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HAVING HARD TIME WITH MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SHORTWAVE. 

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EWD WITH SWLY SFC WINDS 
DEVELOPING TNT AND SUN. ISOLD MVFR HAZE OR FOG FROM 08Z TO 
14Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.  


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 022012
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
312 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2007

.SHORT TERM...
NAM SOUNDING SHOW PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AS WINDS DECOUPLE
AND MID LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. MODIS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES FAIRLY LOW (0.6) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT RISE TO
AROUND 1.6 INCHES AROUND APPROACHING TROF AXIS. GOES SOUNDER DATA
SHOW THIS MOISTURE AXIS IS MOVING SLOWER THAN MODELS...ESPECIALLY
SLOWER THAN THE FASTER GFS. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER RADIATION AL
COOLING EARLY WITH DRIER AIR.

ANY SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH THE TROF AXIS WOULD BE ELEVATED WITH
SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE TOO
MUCH DRY AIR TO INCLUDE EVEN AN ISOLATED SHOWER POTENTIAL. NO
ELEVATED CAPE INDICATED.

NEXT SMALL POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB WINDS
INCREASE...PUSHING WHATEVER IS LEFT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER MOST
CONVERGENCE SETS UP NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND NAM
SOUNDING STILL HAVE TOO MUCH DRY AIR BELOW 8 THSD FT. DECENT CAP
REMAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO NORTHWEST U.S. ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER AIR BACK TO THE FORECAST AREAS ON INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS...AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. 850 MB FLOW INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AND GFS SOUNDING SHOW SOME CAPE. LITTLE FORCING INDICATED
SO WILL STAY DRY FOR NOW.

BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TRAILING
COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO WISCONSIN FROM THE WEST. MODELS HAVE BEEN
HAVING HARD TIME WITH MOVEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF THIS
SHORTWAVE...BUT LATEST GFS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF.

APPEARS GFS SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER EAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ADVANCING NORTHEAST PHASING WITH THE MORE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE. SECOND SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT
REACHES THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH NEW FORECAST
WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND. 

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NW WI SWWD INTO 
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL MOVE SEWD TNT...REACHING FAR SRN WI BY 12Z 
MON. THE WEAK FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER NRN IL OR FAR SRN WI FOR 
MON. LITTLE TO NO LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS 
WILL PREVENT ANY RAINFALL FROM OCCURRING. OTHER THAN ISOLD MVFR FOG 
OR HAZE FROM 06Z MON TO 14Z MON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 030845
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
345 AM CDT MON SEP 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH 
MIDWEEK...WITH WAA EVENT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH.

00Z 500/250MB ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CONUS...WITH MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES ALONG THE US/CANADIAN 
BORDER. OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER RIDGING REMAINS CENTERED NEAR SO-CAL 
WHILE NEXT VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE PAC NW.  AT THE SFC 
DIFFUSE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SLIDING SWD THRU SRN WI...WITH WEAK LEE 
TROUGHING NOTED OVER THE WRN DAKOTAS. GOES/MODIS PW SOUNDERS SHOWING 
BAND OF MOISTURE SLIPPING THRU WI ATTM...WITH IR IMAGERY SHOWING 
NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED MID/HI CLOUDS OVER SRN WI. STRONGER PBL 
WINDS LIMITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. 

TODAY...DIFFUSE BOUNDARY OVER SRN WI TO LINGER OVER THE AREA 
TODAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK NWD AS A WARM FRONT THIS 
EVENING. MODELS STILL SHOWING MODEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000 J/KG/ 
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE 80S WITH TDS IN THE 
LOW-MID 60S. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING THE AMS 
STRONGLY CAPPED WITH NO ORGANIZED FORCING TO REMOVE INHIBITION AND 
INITIATE STORMS...DRY FORECAST TO PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING AS 
1KM MODIS SEA SFC IMAGERY SHOWING LAKE TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S ALONG 
THE SHORE. THUS EXPECT TEMPS TO BECOME A BIT COOLER IN ERN ZONES. 

TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT 
LAKES TONIGHT...WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION TO INITIATE ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN BY LATE EVENING /04Z/. CONVECTION THEN EXPECTED TO
PROPAGATE E/SEWD ACROSS NRN WI ALONG 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IN
REGION OF MDT-STG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/FN VECTOR CONVERGENCE. GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT THAT MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF
THE CWA...ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT CONCERNED THAT THE CONVECTION MAY
TRY TO MAKE A RUN AT THE FAR NRN COUNTIES /SHEBOYGAN-FOND DU LAC/
AS CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE STORMS MAY TRY TO BUILD SEWD INTO THE
FLOW ALONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP DRY
FORECAST BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON SITUATION.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES REGION AS POTENT S/W TROUGH COMES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST 
COAST. DRY FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS FORCING NIL...AND AMS STRONGLY 
CAPPED. LOW LEVEL SWLY FLOW TO PROVIDE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY AS 
850MB TEMPS TOP OUT AT 19-20C. HI TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 
80S...ALTHOUGH WITH TDS IN THE UPR 50S-LOW 60S HUMIDITY SHOULDNT GET 
TOO OUT OF HAND. DRY AND MILD TUES NIGHT.   

LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST GOING INTO WED AS UPPER TROUGH SLOW TO PROGRESS
EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. GFS/NAM/ECMWF DO SHOW A WEAK S/W TRYING TO
LIFT NWD THRU THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...A DEEP SLY FLOW 850MB WILL ALLOW PLENTIFUL GULF
MOISTURE TO SURGE NWD INTO SRN WI...WITH 850MB TDS RISING FROM
8C WEDNESDAY TO NEAR 15C THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH Q-G FORCING WEAK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. PRIMARY UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION
THU-FRI. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
AMPLITUDE/STRENGTH/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH CONSENSUS
SOLUTION INDICATES BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS PSBL FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THRU THURSDAY
COURTESY OF SOUTHWEST FLOW...WITH A SHOT OF COLDER AIR IN WAKE OF
SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.

AS ONE OF MY LAST OFFICIAL FORECASTS AT WFO MILWAUKEE...ITS BEEN A
PLEASURE SERVING EVERYONE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. CHEERS -- FOWLE.

&&

.AVIATION...SFC COLD FRONT THAT WAS DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS WI 
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT...LOOSING DEFINITION WITHIN THE SFC WIND 
FIELD. WINDS ABOVE THE BNDRY LAYER /925 MB VAD WIND DISPLAY/ SHOW NW 
WINDS INTO NE IL ALREADY.  VRY NARROW BAND OF MID CLOUDS TO MOVE 
SOUTH OF KMSN AND KMKE BEFORE 10Z.  WITH GOOD MIXING...DON/T EXPECT 
ANY MVFR FOG OR HAZE THIS MORNING. DRY...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL 
THRU PD. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

FOWLE/DAVIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 062011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
311 PM CDT SAT OCT 6 2007

.SHORT TERM...
WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS SHARP DEEP TROF OVER THE WESTERN US WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND
OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

UPPER JET APPEARS TO HAVE ROUNDED BASE OF UPPER TROF...SO MODEL
TRENDS IN FINALLY MOVING IS SLOWLY EAST SHOULD BEGIN.

SURFACE TO 850 MB IS MORE MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THIS SEEN IN CU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LITTLE CAP...BUT RATHER DRY MID LAYERS WITH
MODERATE CU DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING. FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR
LAKE BREEZE IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

LACK OF A TRIGGER STILL BIGGEST ISSUE FOR THIS EVENING AND SUNDAY...AS
NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPE AROUND 1300 J/KG WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ON SUNDAY.

STILL CONCERN FOR MORE FOG WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING
ACROSS THE COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. MODIS STILL SHOWING
SHORELINE AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH SOME MID 50S JUST TO THE
EAST. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW MUCH OF THE FOG/STRATUS OFF SHORE HAS
DIMINISHED...BUT WAS STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF MILWAUKEE TO NEAR
SHEBOYGAN...BUT NOT AS THICK AS YESTERDAY. EXPECT LAKE FOG TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...BUT GRADIENT PREVENTS MUCH INLAND PENETRATION.

WILL MENTION SOME PATCHY FOG OVER AT LEAST THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT

GFS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE MORE PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. CRAS
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH UPPER LOW FARTHER SOUTH. THIS SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE THAN UPPER LOW GETTING CAUGHT IN MORE NORTH JET.

AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ADVANCING TROF/UPPER LOW
SHOULD MOVE IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT NOW MAY MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS CUT OFF SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

.LONG TERM...
WITH GFS MORE IN LINE WITH PROGRESSIVE ECMWF...IT NOW APPEARS
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...WARM SECTOR TO DOMINATE INTO SUNDAY. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. EXPECTING MAINLY MVFR FOG/HAZE
TNGT/ERLY SUN. LEADING EDGE OF THICKER FOG/STRATUS NOTED 5-10 MILES
OFFSHORE OF MKE COUNTY. SOME PUSH WNW NOTED...ESP TOWARDS NRN
MKE AND OZA COUNTY...SO FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAF.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 071951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
251 PM CDT SUN OCT 7 2007

.SHORT TERM...

WATER VAPOR/RUC SHOWS SHARP DEEP NORTH TO SOUTH TROF OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PLAINS TO JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

UPPER JET NOW WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
TROF...SO TROF SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD.

SURFACE TO 700 MB MOIST WITH MODIS DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES. TCU FIELD ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
GENERATED SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. RUC HAS CAP AROUND 600 MB WITH
CAPE AROUND 700 J/KG. CURRENT RUC FORECAST MIXES THE SURFACE TO
700 MB LAYER. APPEARS THIS IS HAPPENING AS CU MORE FAIR WEATHER
TYPE. STILL ENOUGH CAPE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

STILL CONCERN FOR FOG WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING ACROSS THE
COOLER LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS. MODIS SHOWING SHORELINE AREAS IN THE
UPPER 50S WITH SOME MID 50S JUST TO THE EAST. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW A SMALL PATCH OF FOG/STRATUS OFF SHORE OF SHEBOYGAN COUNTY
AREA.

LIFT FROM UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT WILL INCREASE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST AND NORTHWEST OF MADISON TONIGHT.

NAM SHOWS SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE
RATES ABOVE 950 MB.  AS SUCH THUNDER THREAT WILL REMAIN LATE TONIGHT.

GFS AND RUC FAIRLY CLOSE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH GFS JUST A
BIT SLOWER WITH EVENTUAL UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA TO NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MANS BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING EAST...UNTIL DRY SLOT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. CAPE AROUND 100 J/KG WITH SHEAR VALUES. WITH UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT...IN TIME OF MAX HEATING...SOME
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS IS SLOWER AND
FARTHER WEST...WITH UPPER LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...WHILE ECMWF IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OVER NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA.

WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF DUE TO UPSTREAM KICKER...BUT HANG THE
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY. NOT WILLING TO PUSH
SHORTWAVE EAST AS QUICK AS GFS FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH
UPPER RIDGE. PREFER THIS SO WILL GO DRY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR AC CIGS DIMINISHING ACRS SC WI...MEANWHILE SCT-BKN
VFR CU BUILDUP IN SE HAS RESULTED IN ISOLD CONVECTION. WILL PLAN ON
THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER KEEPING AN
EYE ON MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION HEADING TOWARDS SW WI FROM NE IA.
MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL STAY WEST OF KMSN TNGT...BUT WILL MONITOR.
THINK WE WILL SEE MORE OF THE MVFR FOG AGAIN TOWARDS MORNING.
DECIDED TO KEEP DYNAMICS RELATED CONVECTION OUT OF KMSN THRU 18Z...
FOLLOWING QPF SOLUTIONS MORE FROM THE GFS AND LOCAL WRF20 RATHER
THAN THE NAM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
HENTZ/COLLAR

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 100821
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT WED OCT 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. MODELS AND HPC QPF PATTERNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PUTTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA FOR BOTH PERIODS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN. I WILL
GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SAG
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN SECTIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH AROUND
-20 DEGREES. THERE WILL ALSO BE A STRONG SHORT WAVE AND GOOD ISENT
LIFT INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CIRCULATION IN THE CWA REMAINS
CYCLONIC. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE AS COMPARED TO EASTERN SECTIONS. I
WILL STAY CLOSE TO MAV POPS.

SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS LACKING AND THERE IS SUBSIDENCE.
HOWEVER...THE INVERSION IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5K FEET AND
DELTA-T SHOULD BE AROUND -14 TO -16 DEGREES. PERHAPS A BIT HIGHER
IF THE GFS H850 TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON
THE LIGHT AND SCATTERED SIDE. GFS HAS LAKE INDUCED CAPE OF AROUND
180. 

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK QUIET...THEN STRONG OVERRUNNING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SOMEWHERE ACROSS
THE SOUTH HALF OF WISCONSIN. THE GENERAL PATTERN IS SIMILAR
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. 

I WILL GENERALLY STAY CLOSE TO MAV TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 


&&

.AVIATION...EXPC MVFR CIGS TO CONT SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS SRN WI THIS 
MRNG AS STRONG UPPER LOW OVR UPR MI GETS NUDGED SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO 
UPSTREAM KICKER IN CENTRAL CAN.  IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE 
SHOULD PRODUCE PERIOD OF -RA OVER ERN AREAS THIS AFTN AND EVE.  
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOIST LOW LEVELS MAY RESULT IN 
IFR CIGS AT KMKE THIS EVE AS WELL. 

.MARINE...WL UPGRADE TO GALE WARNING FOR NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 
TONIGHT.  LATEST GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE 
RATES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH 1000-850MB WINDS OF 30 TO 35 
KNOTS LESS THAN 1000 FT OFF SURFACE AS STRONG UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH 
ACROSS LWR MI. SHIP ON LAKE SUPERIOR REPORTED 40KT SUSTAINED WIND 
JUST NORTH OF KEWEENAW PENINSULA AROUND 06Z. MODIS IMAGERY SHOWING 
EFFECT OF UPWELLING LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
NOW BETWEEN 45 AND 50 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WHICH IS A 
DROP OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES SINCE MON.  CORE OF STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED 
WITH UPR LOW SLIDES SOUTH OF AREA THU MRNG SO RETURN TO SMALL CRAFT 
ADVY LKLY TIL 00Z/FRI.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

35/11

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 130914
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
314 AM CST TUE NOV 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...150 KT JET STREAM OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND ASSOCIATED 980
MB SFC LOW OVER WRN SASK CANADA WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH THE LOW REACHING
JAMES BAY CANADA ON WED. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS AM WITH
SWLY WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS
NEAR 60 EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.

COLD FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE WED AM. 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
PROGGED TO FALL FROM 546-552 DM AT 12Z WED TO 534 DM BY 00Z THU
WITH 850 MB TEMPS COOLING TO -4C. HIGH TEMPS TO MOST LIKELY OCCUR
IN THE MORNING OR MIDDAY. UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO THEN DIG SEWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WED NT WITH NWLY FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED AND CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION ON BRISK WINDS. BRISK
NWLY WINDS TO CONTINUE ON THU WITH 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES ONLY
522-528 DM AND 850 MB TEMPS -8 TO -10C. SCT-BKN SC EXPECTED ON THU
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 40S. NO PCPN FCST DURING THIS
TIME DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT LIFT.

.LONG TERM...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON FRI WITH CONTINUED
COOL TEMPS. THE JET STREAM WILL THEN BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH SIGI DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BY MON. BEFORE THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ELY WINDS NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT OVER SRN WI...KEEPING TEMPS COOL.


&&

.AVIATION...LOW-MID LVL MOISTURE RMNS SPARSE DURING THIS FORECAST
PD.  STRENGTH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF CANADIAN SHORT WAVE
SHOULD RESULT IN SCT-BKN CI OVR SRN WI THIS AFTN AND TNGT...WITH PD
OF AC LATER TNGT VCNTY OF LOWER LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  TIGHTENING PRES
GRAD AND ADEQUATE MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN 20 TO 25KT WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTN BFR SUNSET.

&&

.MARINE...WL HOLD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTN. MODIS
IMAGERY INDICATING SST BETWEEN 44 AND 48 DEGREES.  THINKING THAT LOW
LEVEL INVERSION WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT GUSTINESS EXCEEDING 22KT AT
SURFACE AND WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARS BRIEF.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION/MARINE...MBK

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 142114
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 PM CST WED NOV 14 2007

FORECAST FOCUS ON GUSTY WEST WINDS SPREADING COLDER AIR OVER SRN WI
TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG CAA BEHIND SFC FRONT MIXING DOWN
30-35 KT WINDS WITH SFC W-NW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. POCKET OF MAXIMUM
3 HRLY SURFACE PRES RISES PASSING BY WELL TO THE NORTH...BUT RUC AND
NAM FCST 3 HRLY RISES OF 2 TO 4 MB BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OVER CWA
INDICATE WINDS WILL STAY UP EARLY...THEN GRADUALLY EASE OVERNIGHT
WITH SLACKENING GRADIENT.

LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN NE IL TO W CNTRL IL AHEAD OF BAND OF
CHANNELED VORTICITY THAT WATER VAPOR LOOPS AT 20Z SHOW EXTENDS FROM
SHORT WAVE TROF NR JAMES BAY ACROSS NRN LWR MI...SE WI TO S CNTRL IA
DRIFTING SE. STRATO CU DECK MARKING MID-LVL COLD POCKET HAS SPREAD
OVER ALL OF SRN WI EXCEPT FAR SE WI...WHICH SHOULD BE CLOUDY BY 00Z.
CLOUDS WILL HELP HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT...BUT TRAJECTORIES MATCH UP
WELL WITH A BLEND OF WARM MAV AND COOL MET.

MAIN MID LVL TROF STILL TO SWING THROUGH STATE TONIGHT...WITH LIFT
FROM CVA AHEAD OF VORT LOBE IN AXIS OF TROF AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TRIGGERING LIGHT SPRINKLES/FLURRIES OVER SE MN AND WRN
WI...WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OVER NRN MN CLOSER TO THE VORT LOBE
CENTER. WILL CARRY SCT FLURRIES IN FCST FOR TONIGHT PER CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS MATCHING WELL WITH LOCAL WORK STATION WRF MODEL
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT THAT TAKES SCT NON-MEASURABLE PCPN
OVERNIGHT.

THERMAL TROF OF COLDEST 850 TEMPS MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
CLOUDS LINGERING UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WAA FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THO PLENTY OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
FROM 850 MB TO 500 MB...EXPECT ONLY VIRGA OR A FEW FLURRIES AS
CRYSTALS EVAPORATE AS THEY FALL THROUGH DRY LAYER BELOW 7K FT
DEPICTED ON FCST SNDGS.

QUIET SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER WRN GREAT LAKES...WITH
TEMPS A BIT HIGHER THAN MEX GUIDANCE AS SRLY FLOW SETS UP IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CWA...AND SE FLOW OFF RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN (MID 40S TO AROUND 50 PER LATEST MODIS SEA-SFC
TEMPERATURE IMAGE) HOLD TEMPS UP IN LAKE SHORE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...
MODEL VARIABILITY IN THE EXTENDED ESPECIALLY BEYOND MONDAY CONTINUES.
00Z ECMWF BRINGING 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WELL INTO WI WITH +8C
REACHING A MSP TO GRB LINE AT 00Z MON. GFS BARELY BRINGS +6C INTO
THE FAR SOUTH. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW BETWEEN WARM
BLENDED HPC GUIDANCE AND COOLER MEX.

PCPN CHANCES LATE IN THE EXTENDED A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS ON
BASED ON PLACEMENT OF STALLED SFC/850 BAROCLINIC ZONES AND
SUBSEQUENT WAVE MOVING ALONG TEMP GRADIENT TUE INTO WED. BOTH 00Z
AND NEW 12Z GFS PUSH SFC FRONT THRU MOST OF WI BY 00Z WED...THEN
STALLING IN NRN IL (00Z RUN) OR PUSHING IT FRTHER SE ALONG A SRN LWR
MI TO KSTL LINE(12Z RUN). ECMWF KEEPS AN INVERTED TROF POINTED AT
FCST AREA WITH MOIST FLOW FROM THE GULF FEEDING INTO RGN THRU WED
NGT AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES UP ALONG STALLED BNDRY. WILL KEEP CHC POPS
FOR NOW UNTIL PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF BNDRYS/WAVES BECOMES MORE
CONSISTENT. DIFFERENCES ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON PCPN TYPE...SO WILL
GO WITH A RAIN OR SNOW MIX TUE NGT THRU WED.

&&

.AVIATION...TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS HOWLING OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THU MRNG. WIDESPREAD SC SHIELD OVERSPREADING SRN WI. HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP CIGS BARELY INTO VFR CATEGORY GIVEN UPSTREAM TRENDS
AND MOS OUTPUT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CIGS DROP INTO MVFR
CATEGORY LATE TNGT/ERLY THURSDAY BUT CONFIDENCE LOW ATTM FOR
INCLUSION INTO TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA TO OBVIOUSLY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY GIVEN TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT. HIGHEST WAVES EXPECTED FURTHER TOWARD OPEN WATER.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

09/09/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 250927
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
327 AM CST SUN NOV 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...
TODAY-
IMPRESSIVE UPPER LOW BURIED OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO APPEARS TO BE
READING TO GET KICKED TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN STATES HAS TEMPORARILY PUSHED DEEP MOISTURE
OFF TO THE EAST OF WISCONSIN.

MODELS SHOW WEAK WAVE AND SWATH OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT PRECIP
MOVING ACROSS ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE CAN BE SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER KANSAS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF
WISCONSIN.

MEANWHILE MODIS FOG PRODUCT SHOWS BLOB OF STRATUS OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THIS PROBABLY ADVECTION RELATED
AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVE ACROSS
THINNING SNOW FIELD. SHOULD ERODE BY MIDDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE THEREAFTER.

TONIGHT-
UPPER LOW ACCELERATES ACROSS TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. A WEAK COL
EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. WITH WEAK WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES DURING THE EVENING...SHOULD BE DECENT RADIATION NIGHT.

MONDAY-
TREND OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SURFACE LOW TRACK FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST. 03Z SREF HAS LOW TRACKING FROM NEAR MEMPHIS TO
PITTSBURG PA DURING THE DAY. MEASURABLE PRECIP IN MOST AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE BARELY CLIPS THE KENOSHA AREA. CRAS MODEL SHOWS DEEPEST
AND COLDEST CLOUD SHIELD STAYING SOUTH OF WISCONSIN.

CUT MOS POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...WITH PREFERENCE FOR MUCH DRIER
NAM. THESE DEFORMATION ZONES HAVE A SHARP CUTOFF AND GUT FEELING
IS THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL NOT GET MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
CHICAGO.

TUESDAY-
FAST WESTERLY FLOW RESUMES...WITH LEE TROUGH FORMING IN EASTERN
COLORADO. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM PLAINS INTO WISCONSIN MAY
RESULT IN MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY-
TIMING ISSUES ABOUND. GFS IS FASTEST AND HAS SURFACE LOW NEAR
SHEBOYGAN. NAM...ECMWF...AND GFSENSEMBLES ARE SLOWER AND RANGE
FROM IOWA TO NEBRASKA. LEANED SLOWER...THOUGH EVEN FASTER GFS
SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR PRECIP NORTH OF WARM FRONT AND WELL NORTH OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THUS...CUT POPS TUESDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE OF
RAIN/SNOW MORNING ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN CHANCE OF SNOW WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

ALTHOUGH OVERALL SYSTEM TRACK NOT FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH
LOW TRACK TO THE NORTH GFS HAS BROAD AND MODERATELY STRONG 500 MB
HEIGHT FALL CENTER GOING BY TO THE SOUTH WITH CYCLONIC LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN WAVE OF FRONT. ECMWF HAS ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
LIQUID POST FRONTAL SO COULD GET SOME LIGHT SNOW ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY-
SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND SURFACE POLAR RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR
QUIET BUT COOL WEATHER. SHOULD STAY BELOW FREEZING WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES BELOW -10C FORECAST ON AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS DUE TO ADVECTION OF HIER DEW POINT AIR OVER
REMNANT SNOW FIELD EXPECTED TO CLEAR MSN AROUND 13Z AND THIN/ERODE
OVER MKE BY 16Z. GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRES PASSING TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER TO THE NORTH AND HI PRES
TO THE SE WILL SUPPORT MODERATE SSWLY WINDS THRU THE DAY...THEN
BECOME WRLY AND SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS THRU 12Z
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO
THE NORTH ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND HI PRESSURE TO THE SE
WILL KEEP MODERATE SSWLY WINDS AND HIGHER WAVES THRU LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SLOWLY EASE DURING THE EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02
AVIATION/MARINE...09

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 172022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
222 PM CST MON DEC 17 2007

.SHORT TERM...

MODIS 1 KM SNOW/ICE IMAGE DID AN EXCELLENT JOB DEPICTING STRATUS
OVER THE SNOW FIELD. MUCH OF THE SHORT FORECAST PROBLEM WILL DEAL
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER/STRATUS ISSUES.

DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS CRAS FORECAST IMAGERY SEEMS TO GIVE HINT AT
STRATUS MODEL DISTRIBUTION WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER CLEAR AREAS. AS
SUCH CRAS WAS A LITTLE SLOW IN DISSIPATING STRATUS.

NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION IN LOWEST 500 FT. HOWEVER WITH
10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS...DOUBT FOG WILL BE AN ISSUE. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS NO INDICATION OF STRATUS...SO WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN A BIT
BELOW GFS MOS. CRAS MODEL HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING
PRECLUDE ANY INFO ON STRATUS.

WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CRAS DOES INDICATE A MORE WESTWARD STRATUS DECK TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH WARMER TEMPS OVER MUCH OF WI...E MN AND FAR E IA.
COLDER TEMPS OVER CLEAR SKIES AND SNOW COVER TO THE WEST OF THIS.
THE STRATUS IS PICKED UP WITH NAM/ETA MOS...BUT GFS MOS DOES NOT
HAVE STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. THIS IS IMPORTANT AS NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME FLIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL
MENTION SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD FOND DU LAC AND
SHEBOYGAN AND GO WITH MAINLY STRATUS OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THEN A SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY. GFS AND ECMWF VERY SIMILAR WITH A MORE OPEN TROF...WITH
GFS STILL SHOWING MORE OF A CLOSED SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH.
ECMWF SPREADS MORE QPF NORTH...ALTHOUGH LESS THAN YESTERDAY...UP
TO 0.08 INCH ACROSS THE IL BORDER...WITH SOME QPF EVEN ACROSS OUR
NORTH AREAS. WILL GO WITH A BLEND THE LESSER GFS PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...

STRONG DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH BOTH ECMWF AND GFS
HAVING A LOW TRACK THAT WOULD PUT A RAIN SNOW MIX POTENTIAL...OR
JUST RAIN AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHEAST. WILL ADJUST PRECIPITATION TYPE IN
GRIDS. WITH THIS TRACK SIGNIFICANT SNOW WOULD BE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ECMWF/GFS AND EVEN DGEX IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN KEEPING
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE U.S. INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AFFECTING THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR STRATUS DECK FINALLY ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH MIXING OF DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE THIN DECK. VFR
CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
TUESDAY POSSIBLE...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND
SHALLOW MIXING OF 22 TO 25 KNOT WINDS POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE FLOW
SUGGESTS HIGHEST WAVES WOULD BE TOWARDS THE OPEN WATERS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...06
AVIATION/MARINE...08

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 270905
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
305 AM CST WED FEB 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH NAM
AND ECMWF ARE A FEW HOURS SLOWER WITH THE MID LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME. STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENT LIFT SHOULD BEGIN IN THE FAR WEST
CWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL WAA WILL THEN RACE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SHOULD GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE STATE BY
AROUND 06Z...ALONG WITH THE OMEGA AND ISENT LIFT. THE SHORT WAVE
AND H850 THERMAL RIDGE WILL LAG BEHIND THE MAIN WAA EVENT BY
SEVERAL HOURS GIVING SOME SMALLER ACCUMULATIONS...AT HOUGH MODELS
DRY OUT THE MID LEVELS AFTER 06Z AS THE MAIN EVENT MOVES EAST OF
THE STATE.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE SPEED OF THE MAIN WAA
EVENT...AND ALSO BY RELATIVELY LOW RATIOS PRODUCED BY THE WARM
COLUMN. THE BEST SNOW GROWTH REGION LOOKS TO BE ABOVE THE BEST
OMEGA...ABOUT 600MB. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM...AL THROUGH A SHARP THETA-E
RIDGE IS INDICATED BY BOTH THE NAM AND GFS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH QPF...ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH. I USED A 12:1
RATIO WITH THIS EVENT...ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE MORE OF A 10:1 RATIO.
IT LOOKS LIKE 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
HPC PREDICTIONS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM...AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT...LOOKS LIKE A SATURDAY
NIGHT OR SUNDAY EVENT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING VAST DIFFERENCES IN
DYNAMICS AND COLUMN MOISTURE...BUT ALL MODELS INDICATE VERY STRONG
H850 WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF PRECIPITATION
DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE A RAIN...SNOW...FREEZING RAIN EVENT
SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN RAIN SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW HOWEVER
AS TO WHETHER ANYTHING WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION...BACK EDGE OF VFR STRATUS FIELD NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS
EWD BUT 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING BINOVC OVER NE
WI.  THINK BINOVC WL WORK THEIR WAY SOUTHWARD BUT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THERMAL TROF LINGER IN ERN AREAS INTO TNGT...HENCE BKN
VFR LKLY TO RETURN.  IN ADDITION...WEAK UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE VCNTY OF
MN ARROWHEAD PUSHES ACRS SRN WI LATER TDY.  WIDESPREAD CLEARING NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL UPR JET SHIFTS E TNGT.

&&

.MARINE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALLOW A FEW GUSTS TO 25
KNOTS OVER NEARSHORE AREA DURING WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
EXPECTED TODAY.  HOWEVER PREVAILING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY 15
10 TO 20 KNOTS SO WL HOLD OFF ON BRISK WIND/SMALL CRAFT ADVY AT THE
MOMENT.  NEARSHORE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 TO 80 PERCENT ICE COVERED FROM
LATEST MODIS HI RES VSBL IMAGERY FROM TUE. WL ADD CHANCE FOR
FREEZING SPRAY AS TEMPS AND WINDS CLOSE TO ADVY CRITERIA AS WELL.
WINDS WL DMSH TNGT.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...35
AVIATION/MARINE...11

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 272129
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
329 PM CST WED FEB 27 2008

FORECAST FOCUS ON UPCOMING WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EVENT.

.THE VERY SHORT TERM...STRATO CU ONCE AGAIN MAKING IT/S WAY SOUTH
THRU THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. UPR DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK VORT MAX
CREATING SOME WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS REGION ALONG WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS STILL HOLDING OFF
TO THE WEST...NRLY SFC FLOW HAS ALLOWED SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE OFF
OF LAKE SUPERIOR ONCE AGAIN. LOOP OF VSBY SATELLITE SHOWS
CONVERGENT LAKE BAND OVER ERN LAKE SUPERIOR CROSSING THE U.P. AND
RE-EMERGING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN AND RUNNING THE LENGTH OF THE LAKE.

WITH RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN BRINGIN LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES
EXPECT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE...CLOSER TO
MET DATA VS COLDER GFS.

MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF CLIPPER
TYPE LOW ACROSS LK SUPERIOR TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VERY MUCH
AN ISENTROPIC EVENT WITH LITTLE 2D FULL WIND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
OR INSTABILITY ALOFT TO INCREASE SNOW TOTALS. HPC AND MODEL QPF
PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH 0.2 TO 0.3 24 HOUR LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS.
RUNNING THE ROEBBER PROBABILITY FOR 6 HOURLY TIME PERIODS...SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS VARY FROM 15:1 TO 10:1 DURING THE EVENT...YIELDING
2.4 TO 3.5 SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE CWA FROM 18Z THURSDAY TO
18Z FRIDAY. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND
06Z FRI WITH BAND OF 6 TO 7 UBAR/SEC ISENTROPIC OMEGA CROSSING SRN WI.

SOME ENERGETIC Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE BETWEEN 700MB AND 300 MB WITH
VORT MAX ROTATING THRU STATE FRIDAY MORNING...BUT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE LACKING SO ONLY EXPECT FLURRIES OR A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWER AT BEST. TEMPS WONT FALL OFF MUCH FROM THURSDAY/S
HIGHS...WITH EARLY HIGHS ON FRI...THEN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
AFTERNOON TEMPS. NARROW RIDGE OF HI PRESSURE BRINGS A RETURN TO
QUIET WX FOR SAT.

.LONG TERM...ECMWF IS THE FAVORED MODEL FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE CANADIAN. THIS BRINGS
850MB WAA OVER SRN WI ABOUT 6 HOURS EARLIER THAN THE OPERATIONAL
GFS. EVEN SO...GFS 1000-500MB THICKNESSES AND BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
INDICATE PRECIP WILL START AS ALL RAIN IN THE SW SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING
...WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ELSEWHERE...THEN TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN
SUNDAY BEFORE GOING BACK TO A MIX THEN ALL SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW 500 TROF NOT CLEARING REGION UNTIL MON
NIGHT SO WILL KEEP CHANCE OF SNOW GOING THRU THE DAY MONDAY.

SOME CONCERN WITH ECMWF DEPICTING SECOND LOW RIDING UP BAROCLINIC
ZONE MONDAY...WITH A 1 INCH 6 HRLY QPF BULLSEYE OVER THE SE
CORNER OF WI ENDING AT 00Z TUE AND THICKNESSES HOVERING AROUND 540
DAM. HOWEVER IT IS AN OUTLIER SO WILL WAIT TO SEE IF THERE IS
SUPPORT FROM LATER RUNS.

SHORT WAVE RIDGING BRINGS QUIET WX TUE WITH ANOTHER SFC TROF FOR
WED. GFS AN OUTLIER WITH DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL
WI DURING THE DAY WED. WILL TREND WITH THE WEAKER AND DRIER ECMWF.
BLEND OF HPC AND MEX GUIDANCE NUMBERS FOR TEMPS THRU PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN ISSUE FOR TAFS THIS PERIOD IS BROKEN VFR DECK THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND FOG POTENTIAL. ANOTHER AREA OF VFR CUMULUS
EXPANDING RAPIDLY SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN...MOSTLY DIURNAL
IN NATURE. WILL ADD BROKEN DECK INTO TAFS THIS AFTERNOON...LASTING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A STRONG INVERSION BUILDS NEAR GROUND LATER
TONIGHT...AND WITH RIDGE AXIS PASSING NEARBY...MAY SEE SOME VFR FOG.

&&

.MARINE...NEARSHORE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 TO 80 PERCENT ICE COVERED
FROM LAST MODIS HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
TUESDAY. SO...WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION ICE FREE AREAS IN FORECAST.
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING OF 25
TO 30 KNOT WINDS TO SURFACE. GALES TO 35 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...09
AVIATION/MARINE...08

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 180722
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
222 AM CDT WED JUN 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
FOLLOWED BY A POSSIBLE STRONG WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE LOW HUMIDITIES AND COOLISH TEMPERATURES. THE MESOSCALE
COLD FRONT THAT PROPAGATED SOUTHWEST FROM LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN LATE TUESDAY EVENING...WILL CAUSE AN
ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. SSEC 1KM MODIS SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE PLOT SHOWS WATER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S JUST OFFSHORE
AND AROUND 50 OVER MID-LAKE. THE SOUTH MID-LAKE BUOY VERIFIES THIS
QUITE WELL. CERTAINLY QUITE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE
THE SUN BEING ALMOST AT ITS STRONGEST...EXPECT TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE
TO REBOUND ONLY INTO THE MID 60S AT BEST WITH 70S WELL INLAND. LOW
HUMIDITIES AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET INTO THE MID OR UPPER 40S IN MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN LAKES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY. NUMEROUS 
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE CONTINUING NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...NONE OF WHICH ARE EASILY PREDICTED. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING SOMEWHAT FOR SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH TWO OF THE STRONGER SHORT WAVES. GUIDANCE
INDICATES 30 TO 50 POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...THUS WILL RAISE
POPS TO NEAR 40 ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.

GFS...HI RES ECMWF...AND DGEX INDICATE A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN REMAINS ON THE FRINGES OF THIS MASSIVE RIDGE...WHICH
GENERALLY MEANS ONE OF TWO THINGS. EITHER WE ARE CAPPED WITH REAL
SUMMER HEAT FOR A CHANGE...OR WE ARE STUCK IN A VERY WET PATTERN
WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS MCS/S RIDE OVER THE RIDGE
AND TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DERECHO COUNTRY IN LATE JUNE
AND JULY AFTER ALL. WE CERTAINLY DON/T NEED THE LATTER WITH THE
ONGOING FLOODING. STAY TUNED...

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO 
WI BY TONIGHT. OTHER THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG UNTIL 13Z...EXPECT A DRY 
AIRMASS AND VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED CU 3 THSD FT AROUND 15Z 
BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 4 THSD FT BY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT NORTH SFC WNDS BECOMING NORTHEAST WITH A LAKE BREEZE 
DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.  SOME GUSTS APROACHING 25 KTS AROUND 
NOON...BUT MORE STABLE LAKE AIR SHOULD PREVENT LONG DURATION OF 
STRONGER GUSTS.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT/LONG/LONG LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 160936
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
436 AM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN CHANCES THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED WEST NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA. THE STORMS WERE
FORMING ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CONVECTION ALSO BEING AIDED BY
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF JET STREAK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS NOTED
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL DATA SEEMED TO HANDLE THE CURRENT
CONVECTION FAIRLY WELL IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THESE MODELS TAKE
THE CURRENT CONVECTION AND FORM A LINEAR STRUCTURE WHILE MOVING IT
CLOSE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OTHER CONVECTION BEHIND THIS AREA
TRIES TO MOVE INTO WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...BUT WEAKENS BEFORE REACHING THE AREA. THIS CONVECTION
WOULD BE PRIMARILY SUPPORTED BY THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE JET
STREAK...AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA.

MEAN LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG ARE EXPECTED...WITH A
WEAKENING CAP BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE...ONLY AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. HEAVY RAINFALLL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE IF TRAINING OF CONVECTION OCCURS OVER THE AREA NEAR THE
BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE MORNING...THEN CHANCE
POPS IN THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. MAY ISSUE AN HYDROLOGIC
OUTLOOK TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL OF TRAINING CONVECTION THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

WINDS SHOULD SHIFT ONSHORE TODAY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDING
TO THE SOUTH. GIVEN COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS MOVING INTO HIGHER DEW
POINT AIRMASS OVER LAND...MAY SEE SOME FOG FORM NEAR THE LAKE
NORTH OF NORTHPOINT LIGHTHOUSE THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
TOP OFF IN THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE SHORE...BEFORE ONSHORE WINDS
COOL THINGS DOWN INTO THE 60S. 

LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP TONIGHT...WITH MAGNITUDE INCREASING TO 30
TO 40 KNOTS. THIS MAY HELP INITIATE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. ELEVATED CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1200 J/KG
AND SLIGHTLY BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY COMBINE WITH LOW MBE
VELOCITIES TO ENHANCE THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN MEANDERS BETWEEN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHEN SHORT TERM MODELS
BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. AGAIN...LOW MBE
VELOCITIES COULD BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES WITH ANY
CONVECTION. 

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR OR NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. 

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ACTIVE PERIOD CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WITH
SEVERAL SYSTEMS PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES
PREFERRED BY THE HPC BLENDED FIELDS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. 

&&

.AVIATION...

BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION SHOULD PREVENT DENSE FOG...HOWEVER
MAY BE TIME FOR VSBYS TO DROP TO IFR FOR A TIME. OTHER FOG CONCERN
AT KMKE WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. COOL
ONSHORE WINDS INTERACTING WITH MID 60S DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN
PERIOD OF FOG. WDLY SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPCD ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPCD TO PUSH BACK TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST
THREAT NORTH OF TAF SITES. SECOND MCS DEVELOPING ALONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING MAY SLIDE SOUTHEAST ALONG THICKNESSES AND
AFFECT TAF SITES TONIGHT...HOWEVER TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
POINT TO ADD MORE THAN CB OR VCTS TO FORECAST.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK BOUNDARY VCNTY OF KMTW EXPCD TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST AND THEN
SOUTHEAST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT...LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...HOWEVER BRIEF GUSTINESS POSSIBLE AS BOUNDARY MOVES
THROUGH. PER LATEST MODIS SST IMAGES...NEARSHORE HAS WARMED
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM EARLIER UPWELLING EPISODE...NOW GENERALLY IN
THE