000
FXUS63 KMKX 301935
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT WED AUG 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING UPPER LOW AND STRONGER
UPPER LOW FOR NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM FIRST LOOK AT CRAS MODEL SATELLITE IMAGERY IS VERY
IMPRESSIVE.  SO MUCH MODEL INFORMATION IS BEING PRESENTED IN ONE
IMAGE THAT CAN BE EASILY DIGESTED. ESPECIALLY WITH SAY 700MB NAM
HEIGHT OVERLAYED.   CLOUD COVER AND CLOUD HEIGHTS...EASILY
IDENTIFIED STRATOCUMULUS SHIELDS.  ALSO EASY TO CONVERT TO
CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF SYSTEM TYPE.  DATA GOES OUT EVERY 3 HOURS TO
36 HOURS.  WOULD PREFER EVERY 6 HRS TO 60 OR 72 HOURS WITH AVAILABLE
BANDWIDTH.

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS EAST FLOW AND MARINE LAYER
INFLUENCE OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...AND DENSE FOG POTENTIAL IN THE
WEST.  THINK MOST OF THE DENSE FOG WOULD BE IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS...WITH A TENDENCY FOR PATCHY FOG AND SOME STRATUS AGAIN IN
THE EAST WITH MORE OF A GRADIENT.  MODIS 1 KM IMAGERY LAST NIGHT
SHOWERED THE DENSE FOG IN LONE ROCK AND BOSCOBEL WAS CONFINED TO THE
IMMEDIATE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY...IMPORTANT INFORMATION.  THE LOCAL
RIVER VALLEY DENSE FOG IS NOT SEEN IN THE NORMAL 2 KM GOES.

UPPER TROF AXIS LOCATED FROM E IL TO S TIP OF LAKE MI. PREVIOUS
SHOWERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN PUSHED INLAND INTO NORTHERN IL.  NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOW SHOW A LOW LEVEL CAP AND LESS MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...SO WILL KEEP ANY SHOWERS OUR OF THE FORECAST. THEREFORE
ISOLATED SHOWER OVER FAR SE/SC WI SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING.  MAY
HAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AGAIN THURSDAY.

WITH THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW TO SOUTHERN WI WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR ANY INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS IS CONSISTENT IN BRINING STRONG UPPER TROF
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...THEN INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.  TROF TO BECOME CLOSED AND CUT OFF...THEN IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT OVER WI LATER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A COOL AND
SHOWERY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASED POPS
OVER MOS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 311935
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
235 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW SITUATED OVER INDIANA AT THIS TIME...WITH
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. LARGE CLOUD SHIELD
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CUTOFF LOW OVER INDIANA...WITH EDGE CLIPPING
SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE THE CUTOFF LOW SLOWLY SINKING TO THE 
SOUTHEAST...AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z
SATURDAY. WITH THIS PROPAGATION OF THE UPPER LOW...FEEL THAT A
MAJORITY OF THE CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS...THOUGH...MAY
STRAY INTO THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. CRAS
IMAGERY FROM SSEC APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SHIELD AT 18Z
THURSDAY. SO...WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...WITH
MAYBE LESS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST.

COOL AIRMASS TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO BRING IN AIRMASS
FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT...WERE LOWS THIS MORNING
WERE IN LOWER TO MID 50S. USED BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR NEAR TERM
TEMPERATURES...WITH NEAR MAV MOS DEW POINTS.

12Z GFS RUN APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE APPROACHING CUTOFF
UPPER LOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. IT USUALLY
HAS A GOOD AND CONSISTENT DEPICTION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES. ALSO
LIKE THE DRIER LOOK FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO THE 
NAM-WRF...WITH THE DRY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. IT APPEARS THAT A
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ANY REMNANTS OF ERNESTO
WILL STAY OFF TO THE EAST...AND WILL NOT BE INGESTED BY THIS UPPER
LOW.

THE UPPER LOW WILL PROPAGATE SLOWLY TO THE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH DRIER GFS
LOOK...WILL REDUCE POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE EAST DRY. WILL MAINTAIN POPS FOR SUNDAY.

FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING THE EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
CUTOFF UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. IT THEN GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE...AND
A QUICKER PROPAGATION EASTWARD RESULTS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF
IS QUICKER WITH THIS EVOLUTION TO AN OPEN WAVE THAN THE GFS.

THUS...A MOSTLY CLOUDY AND WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THIS REGIME.
KEPT POPS IN THIS PERIOD MAINLY THE SAME AS PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 012009
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
309 PM CDT FRI SEP 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON BEGINNING PRECIP CHANCES AS UPPER 
LOW APPROACHES THIS WEEKEND.

IN THE NEAR TERM...CLOUDS AND PCPN OVER LOWER MI MOVING WESTWARD 
WITH SHRT WAVE THAT IS ROTATING AROUND NRN PERIPHERY OF UPR LOW THAT 
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS PLACES IN W CNTRL IN. LGT SPRIKLES/VIRGA FROM 
SIMILAR WAVE THIS MORNING EVAPORATED AS THEY RAN INTO DRIER AIR IN 
THE SFC TO 850 MB LAYER OVER SRN WI. WHILE BOTH NAM WRF AND GFS 
MODELS BRUSH SRN WI WITH WEAK OMEGA AND SLIGHTLY HIER MID LAYER RH 
THIS EVENING...NEITHER ARE PRODUCING ANY PCPN...PROBABLY AIDED BY 
SOME SUBSIDENCE FROM EARLIER WAVE. RUC PRODUCES A POCKET OF .02 TO 
.03 INCH IN N CNTRL IL IN THE HIER DEW POINT AIR SOUTH OF A PIA TO 
CHI LINE.

CIMSS CRAS MODEL...THAT DID CAPTURE SOME OF THE LIGHT PCPN/VIGA THIS 
MORNING...SHOWS AFTERNOON PCPCN OVER LWR MI DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES 
WEST. HAVE NO PCPN FOR THIS EVENING...BUT WITH SOME WEAK Q-VECTOR 
CONVERGENCE IN THE 1000-850 AND 850-700 MB LAYERS AND PERSISTENT SFC 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER ERN CWA...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON 
RGNL RADAR COMPOSITE TO ADD PCPN BEFORE ISSUANCE IF THERE ARE 
INDICATIONS OF PCPN HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT CROSSES LAKE.

ATTENTION TURNS TO TROF CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE NRN PLAINS THAT 
ALL MODELS CUT OFF OVER THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. WHILE MODELS ARE IN 
FAIR AGREEMENT TNT WITH 500 MB FEATURES...WILL FOLLOW THE PREFERRED 
GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES WHICH DO NOT RETROGRADE THE SFC LOW ASSOC WITH THE 
REMAINS OF ERNESTO AS FAR WEST AS THE NAM/WRF SAT NGT/SUN...WHICH IS 
UNREALISITICALLY TRYING TO MERGE THE TWO 500 MB LOWS OVER THE GREAT 
LAKES RGN.

THUS WILL KEEP SATURDAY DRY WITH SHRT WAVE RIDGING IN PLACE...AND 
FOLLOWED WARMER MAV MOS TEMPS WITH EXPECTED THINNER SKY COVER. 

HAVE HELD OFF PCPN WITH PLAINS UPR LO UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING IN WRN 
CWA AND SUN AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS GFS DOESNT ROTATE LEAD SHRT 
WAVE INTO THE WEST UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. FCST SNDGS SHOW SKINNY CAPE 
OF AROUND 400-500 J/KG BETWEEN 900MB AND 300 MB...AND SFC LI/S 
BETWEEN -1 AND -2 SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF 
ISOLATED THUNDER. 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF ARE SIMILAR IN TIMING OF UPR 
LOW...BRINGING IT TO ERN/NE IA BY 00Z TUE...THEN WRN/CNTRL IL TUE 
AFTERNOON BEFORE SLOWLY OPENING UP LOW AND PUSHING IT EWD TO WRN PA 
BY WED EVENING. 12Z ECMWF APPEARS TO HAVE SPED UP EWD MOTION...AND 
TRACKS 500 LOW ACROSS NRN IL MON NGT BEFORE RAPIDLY OPENING UP LO 
WITH TROF AXIS REACHING WRN PA 12 HOURS SOONER THAN PREV RUN. WILL 
STAY WITH THE SLOWER SLOUTION AND KEEP SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDER DURING THE DAY...SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WED. NO ALL DAY 
RAINS...BUT PDS OF SHRA/TSTMS AS SHRT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES AROUND 
LOW.       

WILL BRING PCPN TO AN END WED EXCEPT IN THE SE...BUT EXPECT 
DIFFICULTY CLEARING SKIES WITH WEAK SFC HI BUILDING IN AND NW FLOW 
SHRT WAVES DROPPING THRU RGN THUR AND FRI. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO 
WATCH FOR ANY SLOWING TREND TO UPR LO AND/OR SHRT WVS IN NW FLOW 
BRINGING PCPN TO RGN THE END OF THE WEEK. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 191937 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT THU OCT 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON HOW QUICK STRATUS WILL ERODE
TONIGHT...THEN ON MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER SHORTWAVE FOR
SATURDAY.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH BACK EDGE
ROUGHLY ALONG SURFACE RIDGE.  RIDGE AXIS BISECTS OUR FORECAST AREA
BY MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER WITH LOSS OF HEATING THE SLOW EROSION MAY SLOW
EVEN MORE.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW POTENTIAL CLEARING AROUND 10Z AT
MADISON...AND LATE MORNING AT MKE.  PREFER THE SLOWER CLEARING ON
NAM VS A QUICK CLEARING ON GFS.

CRAS MODEL IR IMAGERY IS A BIT FAST ON CIRRUS FROM SHORTWAVE OVER E
DAKOTAS/W MN...AND OBSCURES THE LOW CLOUD FORECAST...BUT IT APPEARS
CRAS KEEPS LOW DECK IN AND ERODED CLOUDS A BIT ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN.
CHANGED DEFAULT IR ENHCNACMENT TO THE GOOD OLD CC CURVE...WHICH
SHOWED LOW CLOUD TRENDS WELL ON CRAS OUTPUT.

ON FRIDAY...SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION...ALONG WITH SOME PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS RISE
TO AROUND 50F IN MOST LOCATIONS.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS ON ON HOW QUICK CYCLOGENISIS OCCURS
SATURDAY.  12Z RUNS OF THE WRF AND GFS STILL SHOWING SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO AMPLITUDE OF UPPER TROF AND
CORRESPONDING STRENGTH/TRACK OF SURFACE LOW. THE WRF SHOWS A MORE
DISTINCT S/W EJECTING THROUGH MS RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY...WITH A
DEEPER AND MORE COMPACT SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS NRN IL INTO SE WI
AND INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI. ON THE OTHER HAND...12Z GFS SHOWING A
RATHER FLAT 500MB PATTERN (WITH MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS)
AND CONSEQUENTLY A MUCH WEAKER SFC LOW (ACTUALLY JUST AN INVERTED
TROUGH).  THE ECMWF ALSO ARE TRENDING TOWARDS THE WEAKER GFS
SOLUTION.  WILL TREND FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS.  THE CRAS MODEL
APPEARS CLOSER TO THE NAM.

TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE PREDICATED ON OVERALL STRENGTH OF SYSTEM
AND EVENTUAL TRACK OF SURFACE LOW...BUT ALL SOLUTIONS STILL SHOWING
RELATIVELY COLD AIRMASS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WI IN WAKE OF LOW.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL ON SUN/MON AS
850MB TEMPS FALL TO -6C TO -8C.  GFS ALSO SHOWS EXTENSIVE
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS WITH UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW.

DRY CONDITION THEN EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES.  WILL FOLLOW CLIMATOLOGY AND BE SLOW IN BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 221954 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT SUN OCT 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FOR
MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS CLOUD COVER.  PATCHES OF SOLID
CLOUDS BUT MAINLY CELLULAR TYPE ELSEWHERE.  AS RESULT THINK MANY
AREAS WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR A TIME.  MAIN STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN WILL COME IN
EARLY THIS MORNING.  AS RESULT TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP...ESPECIALLY
IN SHELTERED AREAS. LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW HAS SOMEWHAT HIGHER RH AROUND
850 MB THAN NEW NAM AND RUC.

ON MONDAY AS UPPER TROF AXIS SWEEPS SOUTH IT INCREASES LOW/MID LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...ALONG WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 650
MB...WHICH HAS MORE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WITH
A HUNDREDTH OR SO OF QPF. TROF AXIS DOES NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST
UNTIL EVENING. LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW SHOWS ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
UNTIL TROF AXIS DEVELOPS QPF OF AROUND 0.05 IN BROKEN BAND OF
CONVECTION. THE EXPLICIT CONVECTION IN THE MODEL DID A VERY GOOD JOB
AGAIN ON EXITING PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING.

4 KM IR FROM 00Z CRAS MODEL HAS DONE A REASONABLY GOOD JOB IN
BREAKING UP THE STRATOCUMULS SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SHOWS THE ADVANCING THICK STRATOCUMULS DECK LATER TONIGHT.  HOWEVER
IT MAY BE A BIT FAST.

DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHES.  STILL PREFER THE SOMEWHAT SLOWER 00Z ECMWF OVER THE NEW
12Z GFS IN DEVELOPING UPPER LOW INTO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.  STILL MODEL DIFFERENCES...BUT THEY ARE
NOW AT LEAST SIMILAR. HAVE REFLECTED THINKING MODELS MAY STILL BE A
LITTLE FAST...AND CONTINUE THE CLOUDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 231934
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
235 PM CDT MON OCT 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING WITH APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WITH TWO
SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
MOIST LOW/MID LEVELS...ALONG WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES TO 650
MB...RESULTING IN CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF TROF AXIS. TROF
AXIS DOES NOT REACH FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN UNTIL LATE EVENING.
LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW SHOWS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE ENDING.

4 KM IR FROM 00Z CRAS MODEL HAS DONE A REASONABLY GOOD JOB IN
PICKING UP THE MAIN SHORTWAVE...BUT MAY BE JUST A BIT FAST.

NEXT FORECAST PROBLEM IS WHEN TO BREAKUP THE STRATOCUMULS DECK. NAM
AND LOCAL WRF_ARW INDICATES ENOUGH DRYING BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE AND DEPARTING UPPER LOW TO BRING PARTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CRAS MODEL APPEARS TOO FAST SCATTERED OUT LOW
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.

WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MONTANA TO WEAKEN AS IT MERGES INTO CONFLUENT
UPPER JET ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW WHICH WILL BE OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.  SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SINCE PRECURSOR JET MAX WITH THIS
TROF IS STILL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC...TIMING AND TRACK STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.  12Z GFS AROUND 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUN.  THINK
THIS TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS WITH SLOWER 00Z ECMWF.  LATEST
12Z ECMWF JUST A LITTLE SLOWER YET...WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.
ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE CYCLOGENISIS WITH STRONG LOW AFFECTING
UPPER MIDWEST. WILL LINGER PRECIPITATION CHANGES LONGER AND DROP MAX
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOWER ECMWF.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 241914
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
215 PM CDT TUE OCT 24 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WEAK
SHORTWAVE EXITING MINNESOTA GETTING SHEARED OUT AS IT MERGES INTO
CONFLUENT UPPER JET ON BACKSIDE OF UPPER LOW JUST OFF NEW ENGLAND
COAST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE.  4 KM
IR FROM CRAS MODEL SHOWERS MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTERER OUT BY
06Z.

LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW DROPS KEEPS LOWS TONIGHT AROUND 4 OR 5 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 12Z GFS MOS.  THIS DESPITE CLEARING MID CLOUDS EARLIER
THAN 12Z NAM. PREFER COLDER GFS WITH SURFACE RIDGE AND CLEARING
SKIES.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  SINCE JET MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROF IS STILL OUT OVER THE PACIFIC...TIMING AND TRACK STILL SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN.  06Z AND 12Z GFS HAVE DONE A MAJOR FLIP...AND ARE NOW
TRACKING MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...MORE IN LINE WITH
EARLIER ECMWF. HOWEVER 00Z AND NEW 12Z ECMWF AREA FARTHER NORTH MORE
IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS GFS`S JUST SLOWER.  12Z UK MODEL CUTS OFF LOW
AND IS MUCH SLOWER.

ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE CYCLOGENISIS WITH STRONG LOW EVENTUALLY
AFFECTING MIDWEST. WILL BACK OFF POPS A BIT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT HIGHER THAN CURRENT MOS. WILL ALSO LINGER PRECIPITATION
CHANGES LONGER AND DROP MAX TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR
LINGERING UPPER TROUGH. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS GFS MAY FLOP
BACK TO IT ORIGINAL TRACK.  EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS IT WOULD LIKELY BE
A LITTLE SLOWER...WHICH IS ABOUT THE ONLY CONSISTENT THING GOING IN
THE MODELS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 251914
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
215 PM CDT WED OCT 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
UPPER TROUGH NOW OF OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...AS IT MOVES
EAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS ON APPROACHING MID DECK AND IT`S
POSSIBLE EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. NAM IS SLOW TO PUSH MID
CLOUDS INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.  THIS DUE TO SPLIT FLOW AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN NORTHWEST FLOW.  4 KM IR FROM
CRAS MODEL HAS THESE CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA SOONER.
AT THE PRESENT TIME SATELLITE TRENDS WOULD SUPPORT A QUICKER PUSH.

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS THE NEXT STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.  NOW THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
WITHIN THE HIGHER DENSITY OFF NORTH AMERICAN UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS...THE MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER IN THE STRUCTURE...EVOLUTION
AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.

ALL MODELS STILL INDICATE CYCLOGENISIS WITH STRONG LOW EVENTUALLY
MOVING ACROSS THE KENTUCKY AREA.  THIS WOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUT SOUTH.  NAM MOS IS HIGHER THEN A MAINLY DRY GFS
MOS.  DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THINK AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS IN ORDER BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  THIS WOULD ALSO FIT NICE WITH
COLLABORATION WITH ADJOINING FORECAST OFFICES. LOCAL 4 KM WRF_ARW
BRINGS SOME LIGHT QPF INTO THE S TIER OF COUNTIES LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

WILL ALSO LINGER PRECIPITATION CHANGES AND DROP MAX TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY ACCOUNT FOR DEEPENING NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
UPPER TROUGH.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK...BUT A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY.  MOISTURE
APPEARS LIMITED SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 010236
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
836 PM CST THU NOV 30 2006

.UPDATE...UPON EVALUATION OF CURRENT TRENDS IN REAL WORLD AND QUICK
PEEK AT 00Z NGM/RUC PROGS...HAVE DECIDED THAT NO ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED FOR ONGOING WINTER STORM WARNING AND SNOW ADVISORY ACROSS
CWA AT THIS TIME. SOME CONCERN THAT TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEW POINTS
REFLECT ESTABLISHMENT OF DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER CWA. HOWEVER
THESE COOL TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE REFLECTED IN COBB NUMBERS FOR
BOTH NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS WHICH START WITH RELATIVELY HIGH 14-18:1
SNOW RATIOS WITH ONSET OF SNOW...THEN RATIOS TREND TOWARD 10:1 BY
END OF SNOW EVENT. IN ADDITION CRAS IR HAS VERY GOOD INITIAL
DEPICTION OF BAROCLINIC LEAF SIGNATURE DEVELOPING OVER KANSAS AND
PROGS SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS SIGNATURE OVER WARNING AREA BETWEEN
12Z AND 15Z FRIDAY...THE BEST TIME WITH EXPECTED GFS PLACEMENT OF
SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA. AT THIS TIME AMOUNTS AND
TIMING OF SNOWFALL EVENT LOOK TO BE ON THE MONEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...SOME LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE IN UPCOMING ZONES.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SNOW ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ051-WIZ058-
WIZ063-WIZ068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ052-
WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072.

&&

$$
ZAJDEL

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 081000
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
400 AM CST MON JAN 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS IS ON HANDLING PCPN CHCS WITH CLIPPER
TYPE SYS FOR LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

FOR THIS SYSTEM WE HAVE THE NAM...NGM AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWING
THE CLIPPER WILL MEASURE FOR US WHILE THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN
ARE SHOWING NO QPF. CERTAINLY NO CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS ON
THIS ONE.

THE UPPER JET AXIS CONTINUES TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ANY
APPRECIABLE DVRG ASSOC WITH THIS AXIS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NRN WEAK VORT MAX COMING ACRS
THE CWA BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z TUE.

00Z NAM SHOWS MAX OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AROUND 18Z THEN
NOTHING THEREAFTER WHILE THE GFS JUST INFERS A GLANCING SHOT ARND
18Z AND THEN THAT IS IT. 00Z GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING DECENT Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PEAKING TODAY ARND
18Z...HOWEVER THIS IS WITHIN A RATHER DRY COLUMN WITH HIGHER COND
PRES DEFICITS.

A LOOK AT THE CRAS DATA SUGGESTS COOLING CLOUD TOPS COMING ACRS
TOWARDS MIDDAY PROBABLY LATCHING ONTO STRONGER WAA TYPE
FORCING...AND THEN IT ALSO SHOWS A PRETTY WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION
COMING ACRS THIS EVENING...PROB ASSOC WITH THE VORT MAXIMA THE GFS
AND NAM ARE INDICATING. THIS WOULD ALL TEND TO LEND CONFIDENCE
TOWARDS GOING WITH POPS AT LEAST A SMIDGE HIGHER THAN THE PALTRY
GFS MOS FOR TONIGHT.

6Z NAM COMING IN HAS SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF SYS DOWN UNTIL TNGT.
WILL HAVE JUST A SML CHC IN THE SW PART OF THE CWA LATE THIS AFTN
AND ONLY GO ABV GFS MOS GUID FOR THE OVERNGT PORTION OF THE FCST.

COLDER H8 TEMPS AND GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER SO TUE WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A WINTER FEEL TO IT. SFC RDG
AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON WED SETTING UP A WRMR RETURN FLOW WITH
MODIFYING H8 TEMP.

NEXT CHC OF PCPN SHAPING UP FOR THU AND BEYOND AS SW UPR FLOW
SETS UP LEADING TO HIGHER POPS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
UPPER FLOW REGIME HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE HIGHER END CHC POPS IN
THE MEX MOS GUIDANCE. POSITION OF TIGHT H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
EVENTUALLY BE KEY ON PCPN TYPE WITHIN CWA BUT FOR NOW GOING
PLACEMENT OF SNOW VS. RAIN/MIXY PCPN NOT TOO BAD.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 081951
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
151 PM CST THU FEB 8 2007

.DISCUSSON...FCST CHALLANGES/IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL FOR THIS CYCLE AS
THE GENERALLY QUITE BUT COLD PATTERN CONTINUES.

.SHORT TERM...TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWING SOME DIURNAL RESISTANCE
TO WARM...DESPITE SUNSHINE. WAA AT H8 WAS NEUTRAL AND GIVEN DEEP
SNOW PACK...IT ISN/T SURPRISING TEMPS DIDN`T WANT TO RECOVER.
DEWPOINTS ALSO VERY LOW...MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. GIVEN ALL FACTORS...LOOKS LIKE PERSISTENCE
A PRETTY GOOD FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. DROPPED IN OBSERVED MIN GRID
FROM THIS MORNING FOR TONIGHT/S LOW AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEEKS.
THIS IS COLDER THAN AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE...BUT FITS PROG
SOUNDINGS A LITTLE BETTER.

.LONG TERM...FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC TROF
HOLDS TO OUR EAST AND RIDGE DOMINATES FROM THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY. GUIDANCE STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH THE COLD TEMPS.
MAV MOS THE COLDEST OF THE SUITE OF GUIDANCE AVAILABLE AND HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO THIS OR A NOTCH COLDER.

H5 S/W HITTING THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS
IMPRESSIVE ON THE WV IMAGERY. I LIKE THE WAY THE GFS HANDLES THIS
AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT...H7-H3 LAYER Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE AND WEAK FRONTOGENESIS THAT CLIPS THE AREA. SEEMS
WORTHY OF A SMALL POP. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A SLGT CHC
ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA AS THE S/W PASSES BY TO OUR
SOUTH.

SMALL POPS CONTINUE SUN NGT INTO MON AS ANOTHER WEAK TROF DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NW. ALTHOUGH...THIS WAS LOOKING BETTER
ON THE 00Z RUN VS THIS MORNING/S 12Z RUN. COULD SEE SOME LAKE
EFFECT NEXT WEEK TUE/TUE NGT AS LOW PRES PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND
RIDGE HOLDS ACROSS THE NRN GRT LAKES. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT...AND THE FACT THAT ICE IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG OUR SHORE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED
MID LEVEL CLOUDS MAY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY...AS SHOWN ON GFS AND CRAS MODELS. THESE MODELS MAY BE A BIT
TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
MID LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS...WITH THE CURRENT VERY DRY
AIRMASS THAT WOULD HAVE TO BE OVERCOME. SO...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY
CEILING MENTION FOR NOW.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

99/99

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 170909
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
409 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...SHORT TERM FCST FOCUS ON PRECIP CHANCES AND P-TYPE 
SUNDAY...THEN A MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE OF 
NEXT WEEK.  

00Z 500/300MB ANALYSIS INDICATED AN IMPRESSIVE NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH 
/AND CORRESPONDING SNOWSTORM/ ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH A MEAN RIDGE 
CENTERED OVER THE WRN CONUS. 300MB JET DRAPED OVER THE WRN GREAT 
LAKES...WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF CIRRUS UPSTREAM OVER MN/IA. AT 
850MB...DEEPENING LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT NEWD INTO NEW 
ENGLAND...WITH 850MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH WI 
REMAINING IN A COOL NWLY FLOW REGIME. AT THE SFC...MSAS ANALYSIS 
INDICATING SFC HIGH PARKED RIGHT OVER THE WI...RESULTING IN GNRLLY 
LIGHT WINDS OVER THE CWA. 

TODAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER SRN WI AS BROAD SFC HIGH REMAINS 
OVER THE REGION. EXPECTING SKIES TO REMAIN PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH 
4KM CRAS MODEL SHOWING THICKEST JET CIRRUS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA. 
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CU DEVELOPING AT TOP OF 
MIXED LAYER...BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE A DECENT...ALBEIT COOL DAY. MAX 
TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN MID/UPR 30S...STILL A BIT BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AS SFC HIGH LINGERS OVER THE 
AREA. 850MB RIDGE AXIS TO SLIDE EWD IN CENTRAL WI BY 12Z SUN...WITH 
WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING W/SWLY.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOL...ALTHOUGH 
INCREASING HI/MID CLOUDS MAY TEMPER LOWS A FEW DEGREES.  

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GFS/WRF-NMM FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TRACKING 
NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THRU THE NRN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...AND 
ACROSS WI ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
INDICATE STRONG LOW LVL WAA PATTERN TO KICK IN SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH 
MODERATE ISENTROPIC LIFT NOTED ON 290-295K SFCS AFTER 18Z. BEST 
SATURATION...AND THUS BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP TO OCCUR ACROSS SRN WI 
FROM 00Z MON-12Z MON WHEN COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND LOW 
LEVEL FRONTOGENISIS WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT. 
PRECIP TYPE REMAINS IN QUESTION...AS TOP DOWN APPROACH FROM MODEL 
SOUNDINGS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POTENTIAL MIX OF RAIN OR 
SNOW...WITH THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE WRF-NMM FAVORING RAIN...WHILE 
THE COOLER GFS FAVORS MORE SNOW/SLEET...AT LEAST AT THE ONSET 
/MAINLY DUE TO WET BULBING EFFECTS/.  PREFER THE COOLER GFS SOLUTION 
ATTM...BUT WILL KEEP MIXY MENTION GOING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.  QPF 
AMOUNTS FROM THE GFS IN THE 0.1-0.2" RANGE...SO COULD SEE AROUND AN 
INCH OF WET SNOW...MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS.

MAY SEE SOME PRECIP LINGER IN THE EAST EARLY ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE 
SFC TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A 
DRIER NWLY FLOW TO RESUME.


EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT TO PRODUCE QUIET WEATHER ON 
TUESDAY. GFS/UKMET/ECMWF THEN INDICATING A PATTERN CHANGE TO A BROAD 
S/SWLY FLOW ALOFT BY MIDWEEK...LEADING TO A POTENTIALLY WET AND 
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE TO STREAM NWD 
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE...THE MEDIUM 
RANGE SOLUTIONS ARE TRENDING SOMEWHAT SLOWER WITH THE INITIAL TROF 
MOVING THRU THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUE-THU...SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN 
EYE ON TIMING OF PRECIP.  TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK WELL 
ABOVE NORMAL ON THU-FRI AS GFS/ECMWF INDICATING 850MB TEMPS RISING 
BACK INTO THE 8-10C RANGE. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND PRECIP 
WATER VALUES EXCEEDING ONE INCH WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER IN 
THE FORECAST...AS MODELS INDICATING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 250 J/KG.
IF WERE TALKING MUCAPES...HOPEFULLY SPRING IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS OVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WI FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MF/TZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 242016
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
316 PM CDT SAT MAR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT
48 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...HAVE PULLED BACK ON TIMING OF NIGHTTIME
PRECIPITATION AS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA TO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS SLOWED BY CONVECTION
OVER IOWA. ALSO MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AS PER RUC PROGS
CONTINUE TO HOLD BACK PRECIPITATION APPROACHING CWA FROM
NORTHEAST IOWA. HOWEVER PROGS EVENTUALLY BRING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CLOSE ENOUGH TO CWA AND MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN
ENOUGH TO ALLOW SHORT WAVE OVER WESTERN IOWA TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION OVER CWA LATER TONIGHT. GUIDANCE AGAIN GENERATING
AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AGAIN
IF APPROACHING PRECIPITATION IS DELAYED FURTHER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.
HOWEVER WILL ONLY MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN BODY OF FORECAST AS
BELIEVE THE COMBINATION OF ARRIVING RAIN AND ENOUGH STIRRING OF
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL PREVENT DENSE FOG FORMATION.

.LONG TERM...PROGS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ALLOWING A FAIRLY
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY. RESIDUAL
MORNING CONVECTION WILL RAPIDLY EXIT CWA. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WHICH WILL ALLOW MOIST AIRMASS OVER CWA TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE WITH TIME. NOT MUCH ARGUMENT WITH SPC MODERATE/SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE FOR CWA WITH BEST TIMING EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE TO
LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH
MIDNIGHT. CRAS MODEL REFLECTS INITIAL TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH
COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT NEAR MISSISSIPPI
RIVER AROUND 21Z SUNDAY. HAVE INCLUDED SEVERE AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WORDING IN ZONES AS SEVERAL SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOCUS OVER
CWA. AMONG PARAMETERS INCLUDES 0-1KM EHI OF 1-2, 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
50-60 KNOTS, MLCAPE OF 1200-1700 J/KG, 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
APPROACHING 7C/KM.

.LONG LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS MONDAY TO BE A QUIET
WEATHER DAY...BUT THEN ANOTHER WET AND UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
BEGINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF BUBBLE OF HIGH PRES SCOURING OUT LOWER LEVELS A
BIT THIS AFTN. HOWEVER CONCERN IS HOW EXTENSIVE FOG WILL GET TNGT.
WITH BOUNDARY PROGGD TO MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH TNGT WILL INCREASE AT
LEAST SOME CONFIDENCE IN MOISTURE ADVECTION FAVORABLE OF FOG
FORMATION. WHAT CONCERNS ME THOUGH IS THE WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE A BIT SREONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AND POSSIBLE CONVECTION ASSOC
WITH APPCH WRM FNT....WHICH LESSENS CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER ANALYSIS OF
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOWS STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPING IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS WHICH LEADS TO NEAR SATURATED CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE
SURFACE. FOR NOW WILL NOT BUCK THE CONSENSUS OF THE MET/MAV/FWC MOS
AND GO WITH BRINGING BACK THE VLIFR CIGS/VSBYS NEAR AND AFTER 6Z.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 022003
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CDT MON APR 2 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON WEATHER SYSTEM FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...EFFECTS OF PASSING OF SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...AND LONG TERM TREND OF MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/GFS/CANADIAN PROGS CONTINUE IN QUITE CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH 1-2 PUNCH WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER EASTERN
ROCKIES. RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET AS
NOSE OF 850 MILLIBAR JET PERFECTLY ORIENTED FOR CWA BY 06Z WITH 40
TO 50+ KNOT CORE OVER EASTERN IOWA SHOWN NOW ON ALL PROGS. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS STILL IN LINE WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION AND HAIL
SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE SMALL HAIL IN FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. RAPIDLY RETURN OF MOISTURE REFLECTED IN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY TIME RAIN EVENT COMMENCES.
GOES SOUNDER DATA ALREADY SHOWING POOLING OF PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES JUST SHY OF 1 INCH OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THUS WILL ALSO
INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL IN FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CRAS LOOP BLOSSOMS
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER EASTERN IOWA BY 03Z AND TRANSLATES ACROSS
CWA AROUND 06Z. WILL KEEP HIGH RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AS EXCELLENT
ISENTROPIC/OVERRUNNING CONDITIONS TO FEED COMPLEX OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY PROGS SHOWING VALUES OVER 1
WHICH IS TOP OF CHARTS FOR APRIL. THIS EFFICIENCY EXISTS AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY OVER CWA WITH PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SO HIGH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. WILL FOLLOW PROGS AVERAGE TRACK OF
SURFACE LOW WHICH TAKES LOW OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST ILLINOIS BY
18Z. THIS BIT OF A DELAY FROM PREVIOUS PROG RUNS MAY ALLOW SOME
WARMER AIR TO SEEP INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SO WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TEMPERATURES THERE. ANY THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR REGION
SHOULD BE LATER TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY WITH
HAIL AS MAIN THREAT.

.LONG TERM...SURFACE LOW INTENSIFIES AS IT PASSES EAST OF CWA.
TOYED WITH HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW WINDS AROUND CRITERIA. HOWEVER WITH EXPECTED
CLOUDS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD HAVE OPTED TO
JUST MENTION WINDY CONDITIONS FOR NOW WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH
EXPECTED. LIKE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST TO KEEP LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER FAR NORTHEAST PART OF CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. STAYED
CLOSE TO TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE.

.LONG LONG TERM...AFTER PASSAGE OF WEATHER SYSTEM
GFS/DEGEX/ECMWF/CANADIAN PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A PROLONGED
COLD PERIOD OF WEATHER AS NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES DOMINATE
IN VIRTUALLY ALL LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AND LASTS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT VFR CONDS TIL ARND 06Z. AREAS OF -SHRA FM BKN080
TIL ARND 03Z...THEN SCT -TSRA FM BKN050 TIL 06Z. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS
FM 06Z-11Z WITH WDSPRD TSRA. XPCT WDSPRD IFR CONDS AFT 11Z WITH
AREAS OF -RA AND SCT -TSRA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 131942
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
242 PM CDT FRI APR 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE OVER TEXAS PAN
HANDLE REGION. CLOSED LOW OPENS UP AS SHORTWAVE PUSHES NORTHEAST
AND PHASES WITH LOW NOW JUST NORTHEAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
CYCLOGENISIS FROM THIS HAPPENS WELL EAST ALONG EAST COAST OF U.S.
LATE SUNDAY. DRY AIR WITH SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST ALONG THE
ILLINOIS BORDER. SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD COME AS TROUGH
PHASES WITH NORTHERN SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH JUST SOME VERY LIGHT QPF.

UPWARD OMEGA IS SMALL...SOME Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE MAINLY AROUND
700MB...BUT THIS IS ALSO WEAK. LOCAL WRF_ARW 20KM MODEL BASED ON GFS
TILES IS MUCH DRIER...AND IS PREFERRED.

4KM WRF_ARW WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION DOES BRING SOME QPF JUST ALONG
IL BORDER BY 16Z SATURDAY...BUT IS DRY BY 19Z. HOWEVER THIS IS
BASED ON 06Z GFS.  THE 20KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 12Z GFS IS DRY.

MODIS DATA SHOWING LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE WATER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
40S...WITH INLAND LAKES MAINLY IN THE MID 40S.

12Z CRAS IR MODEL INDICATES A MORE NORTHERN SHIFT OF ENHANCED
CLOUDS. CLOUD PATTERN SUGGESTS PRECIP MAY BE A BIT FARTHER NORTH
THAN NCEP MODELS.

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING RAPID SNOW MELT...WITH REMAINING SNOW COVER
MAINLY IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI...AND IN N-S AXIS
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL AROUND 10-15 MILES INLAND FROM LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORE.

.LONG TERM...

FAIRLY QUIET PATTERN WITH MAIN TROUGHS OVER THE WEST AND
EAST...WITH GENERAL RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. PREFER ECMWF
SOLUTION. GFS SEEMS TO PUSH SHORTWAVE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. TOO
EARLY.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY OVER SRN WI AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS EWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. THE NRN PERIPHERY OF VERY LGT RAIN MAY
REACH THE WI/IL BORDER ON SATURDAY BUT CIGS AND VSBYS WOULD REMAIN
VFR.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

20/06/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 151955
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
255 PM CDT SUN APR 15 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE WEAK INVERSION AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER UPWARD
MOTION IS WEAK...AND CU IS SHALLOW...ONLY AROUND 100MB DUE TO DRY MID
20 DEW POINTS AT SURFACE. CELLULAR PATTERN ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...SO
EXPECT CU TO DISSIPATE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING. USED BIAS
CORRECTED GFS40 TEMPS FOR LOWS...WITH MINOR CHANGES.

LOCAL 4KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 06Z GFS WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION
ACTUALLY VERIFIES WELL WITH ONLY ECHOES ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.
YESTERDAYS MODEL OVERDID SHOWERS OVER WI DUE TO TOO MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

LOCAL 20KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 12Z GFS HAD BEST DEPICTION OF WIND
PATTERN ALONG LAKE BREEZE AND WEAK TROF MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST WI.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO DOMINATE MONDAY. LAKE BREEZE TO KEEP SHOWER
AREAS RATHER COOL...DUE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS AS EAST COAST
STORM INTENSIFIES AND INCREASES PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN. INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

ECMWF ANS GFS DOES PUSH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THAT APPEARS TO PHASE
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF NEW
ENGLAND. WILL KEEP MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH
THIS. U.W. CRAS IR FORECAST INDICATES WEAKENS SHORTWAVE WITH
WARMING CLOUD TOPS...AND CLOUDS FROM EAST COAST SHORTWAVE NEVER
REALLY REACHING MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...
PREFER ECMWF SOLUTION THAT REESTABLISHES UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THURSDAY...GFS APPEARS TOO FAST IN BRINGING
NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

ECMWF BRINGS SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MINNESOTA ON
FRIDAY...THEN REESTABLISHES RIDGE AGAIN. THIS DIFFERENT THAN GFS.
PREFER ECMWF. THIS WOULD REDUCE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEKEND FROM GFS SOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT SRN WI BY LATE SUN AFTERNOON WITH NLY
WINDS OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER MN AND IA WILL THEN MOVE EWD
INTO WI TNT AND MON WITH LGT SFC WINDS.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/GEHRING

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 162001 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT MON APR 16 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN. BIAS CORRECTED NAM12 AND GFS40 TEMPS BOTH SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL TEND TOWARD THE COOLER MOS.

LOCAL 4KM WRF_ARW BASED ON 06Z GFS DID A VERY GOOD JOB WITH LAKE
BREEZE PLACEMENT.

EXCELLENT DAY FOR MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP. UPWELLING HAS COOLED
NEAR SHORE WATERS TO THE MID AND UPPER 30S. INLAND LAKE AND RIVER TEMPS
SEEM TOO WARM.

ECMWF ANS GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL KEEP MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH THIS
DUE TO COLLABORATION AND CONSISTENCY. U.W. CRAS IR FORECAST
INDICATES THAT THE PRIOR PHASE WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL OCCUR AFTER SHORTWAVE
WEAKENS. RETROGRESSION OF CLOUDS FROM EAST COAST SHORTWAVE OCCURS
WEDNESDAY. SOME HINT THAT A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR FROM
THIS...BUT POPS SHOULD BE LOW.

.LONG TERM...
GFS NOW IN LINE WITH PRIOR ECMWF SOLUTION THAT REESTABLISHES UPPER
RIDGE ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY...GFS JUST A BIT FASTER IN NEXT
SHORTWAVE FOR SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS BEEN BETTER...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH SLOWING DOWN SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM EAST CENTRAL WI SWWD TO
ERN IA AND NRN IL BY 00Z WED. VFR CIGS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 261958
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
258 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING STORM
AND EFFECTS OF WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...HAVE ADJUSTED ZONES TO REFLECT NATURE OF PRECIPITATION
AS IT RELATES TO MINOR DRY SLOT AFFECTING CWA ASSOCIATED WITH
ILLINOIS STORM SYSTEM. FEEL SCATTERED SHOWERS THE WAY TO GO EVEN
WITH PIVOTING OF RAIN BAND ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF CWA. WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS ON CURRENT INFRARED
SATELLITE LOOP CONFIRMED BY CRAS MODEL. RUC/NGM/NAM/GFS PROGS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ILLINOIS LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SO ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE
OUT OF CWA BY EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...PROGS TRACK WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS CWA SATURDAY. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT WILL BE A
CLOSE CALL FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS SHOWN BY WRF MODEL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LACK OF DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAIN FACTOR
IN CONTINUING DRY FORECAST.

.LONG LONG TERM...GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATING A DECENT WARM UP
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PASSING NORTH OF CWA.
VERY DRY AIRMASS AND +18C 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY
MODELS ALONG WITH 50+ 850 MILLIBAR WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE A VERY
WARM AND DRY DAY WITH POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE OVER ERN IL WILL MOVE NEWD INTO LOWER MI
TNT AND INTO CANADA ON FRI WHILE A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE
INTO WI FRI AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH TNT AND INTO FRI MORNING WHILE SCT TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN FAR SE WI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MAINLY
IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TNT WITH
AREAS OF IFR VSBYS AS WELL. DENSE FOG NEAR LAKE MI FROM KMKE SWD INTO
IL WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING
WHEN WINDS TURN FROM NELY TO NLY. VLIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL
WITHIN THE DENSE FOG. CIGS WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SRN WI ON FRI FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 311957
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
257 PM CDT THU MAY 31 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON EFFECT OF DAKOTA/S SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW ON RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...BACK EDGE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEPICTED WELL BY
NGM/RUC/NAM/GFS PROGS TO EXIT STATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BACK EDGE OF
CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN LINE WITH CRAS MODEL MOVEMENT WHICH PROJECTS
DRIER AIRMASS SWEEPING OUT LINGERING CLOUD DECK OVER CWA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WITH CALM WINDS AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS OVER CWA EXPECT
AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HARD TO PIN DOWN
POTENTIAL AREAS OF DENSE FOG BUT FEEL THAT CURRENT CONVECTION
FROM FOND DU LAC COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO WALWORTH COUNTY WILL ADD
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE LOWER VISIBILITIES. WILL SLOWLY RAISE RAIN
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT AFTER A RAIN FREE FRIDAY
MORNING AS SMALL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATE NEAR CWA IN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS HEAD OF APPROACHING DAKOTA/S UPPER LOW SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN NAM AND GFS PROGS WITH HANDLING
OF LOCATION OF DAKOTA/S UPPER LOW BEGINS FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH EASTERLY MOVEMENT TOWARD CWA THAN NAM. BY SUNDAY
NIGHT GFS HAS UPPER LOW OVER GREEN BAY WHILE NAM POSITION IS OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA. CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS COMPROMISE WITH LOW
LOCATION OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN. FOR NOW WENT WITH COMPROMISE
SOLUTION OF UPPER LOW WHICH KEEPS HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN FORECAST
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE ZEROED IN ON HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY VALUES TO PUSH RAIN CHANCES INTO LIKELY
CATEGORY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
REMAIN OVER 1 INCH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SO SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY WITH STRONGER STORMS FOCUSED ON A BOUNDARY
OR LIKELY TRAINING OF ECHOES AS WINDS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL UNTIL
PASSAGE OF LOW. LEANED TOWARD 3 HOURLY TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY
AS COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOIST AIRMASS TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON FOG POTENTIAL TNGT. FAIRLY LIGHT 
WIND REGIME SETTING UP TNGT WITH AN EXPECTED DECREASE IN CLOUD 
COVERAGE. WOULD EXPECT MOISTENING OF THE BL WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT 
IN IFR VSBYS AND POCKETS OF LIFR VSBYS. SHOWER POTENTIAL IN ERN WI 
THIS EVE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 092026
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
325 PM CDT SAT JUN 9 2007

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER EXTENDING INTO NEXT WEEK AS 
BLOCKING PATTERN SLOWS SYSTEMS.

.IN THE SHORT TERM...MID/HI LVL CLOUDS ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE CROSSING SRN HALF OF MN IN ZONAL FLOW 
OVER NRN CONUS. ACCAS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...PER LGTNG STRIKES 
ON 15-MINUTE LIGHTNING PLOTS...IN TIGHT POCKET OF 305K ISENTROPIC  
LIFT WITH LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. THIS POCKET OF LIFT 
AND BETTER 850-700 MB RH WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH. 

WILL INCREASE CLOUDS OVER CWA FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TONIGHT AS MID/HI 
CLOUDS IN NRN IA ON SRN PERIPHERY OF SHRT WV PASS THRU...WHICH IS 
WELL DEPICTED ON CRAS IR FORECAST IMAGERY.

WELL MIXED OUT DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 40S WILL COME UP WITH 
OVERNIGHT STABILIZATION OF BNDRY LAYER. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A ONLY 
FEW DEGREES FROM LAST NIGHT'S LOWS ALONG THE LINES OF THE COOLER MAV 
GUIDANCE. SOME PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS POSSIBLE.

ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO BACK AS RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER CNTRL U.S. LATE 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WITH MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED
...AND THE AXIS CENTERED OVER WI... RETURN MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO 
SPREAD INTO CWA WITH 850 MB DEW POINTS UNDER +10 C THRU LATE TUESDAY 
AS BETTER LOW LVL FLOW REMAINS WEST OF CWA. SHORT WAVE ENERGY 
DEPICTED ON MODELS TRYING TO BREAK THRU ARE REMNANTS FROM NOCTURNAL 
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO FIRE IN LOW LVL JET TO OUR WEST AND APPEAR 
OVERDONE. WILL LEAVE FCST DRY UNTIL WEAK SFC TROF APPROACHES FOR 
THURSDAY. 


.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ALL MID/LONG RANGE MODELS NOW ADVERTISING A STRENGTHENING OF OMEGA 
BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THRU MOST OF NEXT WEEK. 00Z 
ECMWF TRIES TO BRING A STRONGER SHRT WV TROF THRU UPR MIDWEST LATE 
THURS/FRI THAN THE 00Z GFS ENS AND 06Z GFS OPERATIONAL MODELS. 00Z 
GEM SUPPORTS THE ECMWF...WITH THE 12Z GFS NOW BRINGING A WEAK 
BOUNDARY ACROSS. WILL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THURSDAY AS WEAKENING SFC 
FRONT/TROF MOVES INTO CWA...THEN SLGT CHC FRI IN EAST WITH HINT OF 
LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG INVERTED TROF. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BLEND 
OF MOS GUIDANCE AND HPC FOR TEMPS WITH TWEAKS FOR LAKESHORE 
COOLING.    


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN 
IN PLACE OVER THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH A LGT SLY 
WIND FLOW OVER SRN WI.  

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

09/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 112041
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
341 PM CDT MON JUN 11 2007

FORECAST FOCUS ON CONTINUATION OF DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER...WITH AN 
EYE ON MOISTURE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH.

PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE BEST FORECAST TOOL FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 
DRY HI PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL...AND SUBSIDENCE FROM BUILDING 
UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION OVER SRN WI.

EXTENDED IR LOOPS SHOWED BANDS OF MID/HI CLOUDS OVER SRN WI THIS 
MORNING WERE DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION IN CNTRL/NRN MN AND SRN ONTARIO
LAST NIGHT THAT TRACKED DOWN FRONT SIDE OF BUILDING UPR RIDGE. GRB 
AND DVN SOUNDINGS AT 12Z SHOWED ANOTHER 20-30 DM HEIGHT RISE FROM 
00Z RAOBS.

GOES SOUNDER PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW PW/S OVER SRN WI HAVE 
FALLEN FROM 1-1.2 INCHES TO AT OR BELOW 0.8 INCH AS SFC HI CENTERED 
OVER LK HURON BROADENS OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES. MKX 88-D 0.5 
REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT TRACKED A DENSITY BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHEAST TO 
NORTHWEST ACROSS CWA OVER THE MID DAY HOURS AS DRIER AIR FROM THE 
SOUTHEAST SPREAD OVER THE REGION AROUND THE STRENGTHENING HIGH.

PW FORECASTS SHOW LOW VALUES OVER SRN WI INTO THURSDAY WITH MOIST 
AXIS WELL TO THE WEST OVER WRN MN ERN DAKOTAS. 

SO PERSISTENCE IN FCST AS OMEGA BLOCK PREVENTS ANY SERIOUS MOISTURE 
OR TEMPERATURE ADVECTION OR FORCING THRU THE WEEK. WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE IN 850 TEMPS OVER SRN WI WILL STAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPS THRU 
THE WEEK CLOSE TO WARMER MAVMOS NUMBERS.

SOME CONCERN WITH 500 MB LOW OFF BAJA COAST...THAT IS FIRING 
CONVECTION IN THE SW U.S. THIS AFTERNOON... BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND 
AFFECTING WRN GREAT LAKES RGN AS IT MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS EARLY 
THURSDAY...BUT ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS BREAK OFF AND WEAKEN THIS LOW 
IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. CRAS FORECAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO 
INDICATING THIS SCENARIO. BULLSEYE OF LIGHT QPF OVER SRN WI IN 
RESPONSE TO INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS IN MODELS...WITH INCREASED SFC 
BASED INSTABILITY. MSN BUFKIT SNDGS FOR BOTH GFS AND NAM INDICATE 
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HOLDS THRU THE DAY.

.EXTENDED...GFS STILL TRYING TO BRING WEAK FRONT THRU STATE LATE 
FRI/SAT WITH ECMWF AND GEM TAKING WEAKENING 500 MB TROF FAR ENOUGH 
TO THE NW THAT SFC TROF WASHES OUT BEFORE REACHING CNTRL/SRN WI. 
WILL KEEP END OF WEEK AND EARLY WEEKEND DRY UNTIL MAIN 500 BM TROF 
SWEEPS ACROSS US/CAN BRDER WITH STRONGER FRONT MOVING THRU SUN NGT 
AND MONDAY.    


&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

09/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 131930
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
230 PM CDT WED JUN 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO TO DOMINATE THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CU WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY...GIVEN THE SHALLOW
LAYER OF MOISTURE ON CURRENT RUC SOUNDINGS AND NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. SOME CONCERN ON FOG. HOWEVER LOW LAYERS DRY...AND WITH
SHORT NIGHTS...ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE IN RIVER VALLEYS. LAST NIGHTS
MODIS 11UM - 3.9UM 1 KM RES FOG IMAGE DID NOT SHOW ANY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS. TODAYS GOES SOUNDER PRECIP WATER IMAGERY SHOWS DRIEST
AIRMASS HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE WEST ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION. WITH MORE MOISTURE...MAINLY AROUND 200-300 MB...EXPECT
SOMEWHAT LESS RADIATION AL COOLING. GOES SOUNDER DATA IS MUCH DRIER
IN THE MID LEVELS THAN RUC. GOES SOUNDER IS MORE IN LINE WITH NAM SOUNDINGS.

1 KM MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMP SHOWING MID 50 TO NEAR 60 MID LAKE
SURFACE TEMPS...WITH NEAR SHORE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S. WITH CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES 15Z MODIS IMAGE IS AN EXCELLENT DATA SOURCE.

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE TRANSITION FROM OMEGA BLOCK
PATTERN TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION SATURDAY IS THE QUESTION. GFS HAS A
MORE SOUTHERLY POSITION...ACROSS SOUTHERN WI...WITH THE NAM SLOWER
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH SOME RIDGING STILL EVIDENT...WILL
TAKE MORE OF A NAM APPROACH FOR NOW...BUT WILL STILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR THE MORE SOUTH
POSSIBILITY.

GFS ALSO BRINGS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO PLAY SUNDAY ...AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING 850 MB FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF
NEXT MAIN SHORTWAVE. OF COURSE IF NAM IS CORRECT...THIS PRECIP
WOULD BE MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
NOW SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND WAIT FOR FURTHER TRENDS IN THE
NEW MODEL RUNS.

12Z ECMWF IS SIMILAR TO THE QUICKER GFS. ENSEMBLES WOULD ALSO
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE POPS. CRAS MODEL APPEARS TO SUPPORT THE
NAM.

.LONG TERM...

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS SHORTWAVE PUSHING WEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS IS FASTER THAN ECMWF. PREFER
THE SLOWER MOVEMENT SO WILL LINGER A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO
TUESDAY. 

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS NEXT 48 HOURS. NO CIGS AND VSBYS AOB 6SM.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 171936
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
240 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM CHALLENGE IS THREAT OF CONVECTION 
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITH EMPHASIS THEN SHIFTING TO 
LIKELY CONVECTION MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE 
WEAK EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT ATMOSPHERE UNCAPPED WITH LATEST SPC 
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING 1000 MLCAPE AND BULK SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.  
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/LAKE BREEZE MAY ACT AS FOCUS FOR ISOLATED 
CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT EXPECT THREAT TO DIMINISH 
RAPIDLY AFTER 00Z AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AHEAD OF UPSTREAM SHORT 
WAVE. FOCUS FARTHER NORTH WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE 
JOINING WITH NOSE OF INCREASING 85H LOW LEVEL JET.  GFS AND NAM IN 
RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON FILLING BUT STILL POTENT SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WISCONSIN LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL DEEPER 
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT AND 
MONDAY AS SHOWN BY CRAS FORECAST IR AND WV IMAGERY. THINK NAM-WRF 
MAY BE OVERDOING AMOUNT OF FORCING MONDAY MORNING AS IT TRIES TO 
BREAK AWAY PIECE OF ENERGY FROM CENTRAL PLAINS CIRCULATION AND SPIN 
IT INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE MORNING.  WILL MAINTAIN DRY 
WORDING IN THE EAST IN THE MORNING...AND THEN CONTINUE THE SPIN UP 
TO LIKELY WORDING ACROSS THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.  AXIS OF STRONG 
SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 100KT 25H 
JET PASSES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH 
06Z/19.  MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED TO BE OVER AREA WITH PWAT VALUES OF 
1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES.  MBE VELOCITY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT ONSET SO WL 
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WORDING MONDAY EVENING.

RAPID POST FRONTAL DRYING LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING 
WITH PERIOD OF SCT-BKN STRATOCU LIKELY IN IMPRESSIVE COLD AIR 
ADVECTION AND LINGERING THERMAL TROF THROUGH 18Z/19.  LEANING TOWARD 
DRIER GFS SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AS AXIS OF WEAK Q-VECTOR 
CONVERGENCE PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND LOW LEVELS REMAIN 
QUITE DRY.  

FOR EXTENDED PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME 
INCONSISTENCIES BEING INTRODUCED BETWEEN EXTENDED GUIDANCE IN 
REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION THREAT LATER IN THE WEEK.  LAST SEVERAL 
RUNS OF GFS SHOWING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN FAST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW 
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MS VALLEY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY 
TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER GFS SHOWING ALOT OF INCONSISTENCIES ON STRENGTH 
AND EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE.  LENDING VALIDITY IS THAT THE 
ECMWF IS ALSO SHOWING 500HPA SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS IA/WI BORDER 
AREA FRI NGT.  GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ABOUT ON 50/50 SPLIT FOR SHORT 
WAVE AT THIS PERIOD.  ENSEMBLE PERCENT OF PRECIPITATION ALSO 
INCREASES TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT.  HENCE WL ADD SCHC WORDING TO FRI AND 
FRI NGT...AND LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ADD TO SAT AS WELL.  

GFS 5 DAY 500HPA MEANS CONTINUING TO SHOW ZONAL FLOW OVER NRN CONUS 
FOR FIRST PART OF FORECAST PERIOD TRANSITIONING TO MORE BROADSCALE 
RIDGING ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST CENTERED AT 00Z/24 AS FILLING LONG WAVE 
TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO FLATTEN 
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  HENCE RESULTING IN TYPICAL LATE JUNE WEATHER... 
WARM AND OCCASIONALLY UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA PSBL INTO EVE HRS AS ATMOS UNSTBL THO 
FORCING DUE TO WRM FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTING NORTHWARD...SO WHILE 
SLGT CHC EXISTS FOR ONE TO POP YET INTO THE EVE HRS...WILL LEAVE OUT 
OF TAFS FOR NOW. WITH WRM FRONT LIFTING NWD BROAD SRLY FLOW WILL 
BECOME ESTABLISHED. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURG FCST PERIOD. 
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MVFR HAZE DURG THE NGT AND ERLY MRNG HRS. SSW 
WINDS WILL PICK UP MONDAY MRNG AND WILL BECOME GUSTY AS BETTER 
MIXING EVOLVES DURG THE MRNG HRS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
11/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 211946
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
246 PM CDT THU JUN 21 2007

.SHORT TERM...

MAIN CONCERN IS ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. VERY UNSTABLE LIFTED
INDEX`S NEAR MINUS 10 OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA IN MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION PUSHED BOUNDARY
WELL WEST INTO EASTERN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL. ACTUAL CLOUDS ON
BOUNDARY HAVE DISSIPATED BUT LACK OF CU SEEN IN MORE STABLE AIRMASS.
LITTLE IN WAY OF SURFACE BASED MOIST CONVECTION EXPECTED. HOWEVER
MODERATE ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS STILL PRESENT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
WI.

LOCAL 4 KM WRF4 BASED OFF 06Z GFS IS HANDLING CURRENT
THUNDERSTORM TRENDS THE BEST. THIS TAKES ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
SOUTHERN MN INTO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH WEAKENING
CONVECTION OVER THE THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
THE WRF4 TAKES THE MCS OVER NORTHEAST IA AND DRIVES IT SEWARD
JUST SOUTHWEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS IS THE MCS WHICH WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL.

GOES SATELLITE DERIVED LI-S SHOW A STRONG LI GRADIENT WITH -7 OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO PLUS 7 OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. IN
ADDITION GOES SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO SHOW A STRONG
GRADIENT WITH 1.5 OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO AROUND 0.75
NEAR SHEBOYGAN. CI FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA WHICH WILL SHIELD THE VALUES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. 1757 Z MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS SHOW VERY COOL
WATERS ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF LAKE MI...WITH ONLY LOWER 50
TEMPS. THIS WILL ADD TO THE LAKE SHORE COOLING...AND INLAND TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. THIS FROM PREVIOUS UPWELLING. NOW WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST...EXPECT THESE WATERS TO WARM A LITTLE. JUST BEFORE CI
PUSHED EAST WAS ABLE TO GET GOES SOUNDER FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE IL
BORDER WITH LI OF -4 WITH 2.3 OVER SHEBOYGAN. SOUNDING SHOWS ANY
SHOWERS OVER THE SHEBOYGAN THIS EVENING WOULD BE FROM DYING
UPSTREAM CONVECTION...AND DRY LOW AND MID LEVELS WOULD EVAPORATE
THESE RATHER QUICKLY.

PREFER GFS FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS
HAS SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVE INITIATION FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE NAM AND U.W. CRAS MODEL. AS SUCH WILL HAVE POPS LOWER THAN
NAM MOS POPS.

.LONG TERM...

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER WISCONSIN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. BY WEDNESDAY JET BECOMES
MORE ZONAL...INCREASING MOIST CONVECTION POTENTIAL AS BOUNDARY
GETS CLOSER. NOSE OF WEAK LOW LEVEL JET IMPACTS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
MODEL TRENDS ON THIS.

&&

.AVIATION...CURRENT SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AROUND KMSN THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SLOW MOVING SURFACE AND 850MB CONVERGENT BOUNDARY
SAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST. SO WILL CARRY VCTS THERE TROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. ALSO...MESOSCALE MODELS POINTING AT SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA FOR BEST CHANCE FOR MCS TONIGHT...AS
BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THAT AREA. STILL...WILL CARRY TEMPO FOR THUNDER
AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AT KMSN INTO THE EARLY EVENING...AS KMSN MAY
BE ON FAR EASTERN END OF MCS. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND THIS IN LATER TAFS.
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS FOR LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY FOR
NOW...UNTIL HIGHER CONFIDENCE CAN BE ATTAINED ON CONVECTION
PLACEMENT AND TIMING.



&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/WOOD

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 252006 CCA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
227 PM CDT MON JUN 25 2007

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
EXPECT AFTERNOON CU TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LACK OF
HEATING. PREFER RUC SOUNDINGS THIS EVENING THAT HAVE A BIT MORE
CAP WITH CAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. WITH LACK OF TRIGGER...AND
MODERATE CAP...POTENTIAL FOR MOIST CONVECTION IS LOW.

LOW LEVELS MORE MOIST...BUT WINDS PICK UP JUST ABOVE SHALLOW
SURFACE INVERSION. STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND SOME
STRATUS...BUT NO ADVISORY DUE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW.
LATEST MODIS SEA SURFACE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S ALONG THE
SHORE...STILL COOLER THAN ADVECTING DEW POINTS.

LOCAL 4KM WRF BASED ON NAM TILES SHOW SOME DECREASE IN MEAN RH IN
THE 1000 TO 850 MB LAYER...SO STATUS SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE. 12Z

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY IN MOIST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. NAM SOUNDING SHOWS SOME AROUND 700MB. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT TOO UNSTABLE...AND SHEAR IS WEAK. HOWEVER NAM CONTINUES
TO BRING CAPES TO 2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER...EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ISOLATED.

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS AFFECTS OF RATHER STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING JUST NORTH OF THE LAKE SUPERIOR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKING ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. GFS AND ECMWF REMAINS VERY SIMILAR.

ON GFS AND NAM...COLD FRONT REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXITS THE SOUTHEAST LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS SHOW MOIST CONVECTION DIMINISHING DURING
DIURNAL LULL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN...THEN AS FROPA COMES
DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH 2500 J/KG AVAILABLE ON
NAM...MOIST CONVECTION AND QPF INCREASE. WIND SHEAR IS FAIRLY
WEAK...HOWEVER RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF INCREASING UPPER JET MAX
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN UPWARD MOTION WITH FROPA IN THE
SOUTHEAST. CRAS DOES SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT ALONG FRONTAL BAND IN
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...BUT MAIN COLD THUNDERSTORM TOPS OCCUR ACROSS
NORTHERN ILLINOIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...

WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR AN INCREASE IN NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND FRONT.

MAIN LONG TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS THEN WITH THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. GFS WEAKENS THE RIDGE...BUT
PREFER STRONGER RIDGE ON ECMWF. AS RESULT WILL STAY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...LK FOR AREAS OF MVFR VSBYS 4-5SM HZ TIL ARND 03Z...THEN
MVFR VSBYS IN BR HZ WL BCM WDSPRD. XPCT IFR VSBYS BTWN 1-3SM IN FOG
AFT 06Z AND CONTG TIL 14Z. 3-5SM HZ FM 14-17Z TUE BCMG VFR CONDS FOR
TUE AFTN. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLD LIFR CIGS DVLPG BTWN 08-14Z.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

HENTZ/KOCHIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 042023
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
320 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON THREAT OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THURSDAY.  TERMINAL DOPPLER SHOWS LAKE BREEZE PUSHING INTO WESTERN
MILWAUKEE...CENTRAL RACINE AND KENOSHA COUNTIES.  WINDS ON EITHER
SIDE OF LAKE BREEZE AROUND 10KTS.  MUCAPE 1500 TO 2000 JOULES IN
THESE AREAS.  THINK MAY BE JUST ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO STILL SET OFF
ISOLATED CONVECTION NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DESTABILIZE FROM MORNING SC FIELD...HOWEVER WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION THIS EVENING AS EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NORTH WHERE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDS
FROM NORTHERN TIP OF GREEN BAY TO NEAR STANLEY.  SEVERAL
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS TO THIS LINE BUT MAINLY APPEARS TO BE FOCUS OF
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DENSITY DISCONTINUITY BOUNDARY.  BOUNDARY
WEAKENS THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION BUT ENOUGH OF THE
CONVECTION MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO SPREAD INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
CWA. CRAS FORECAST IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS WEAKENING AREA OF ENHANCED
TOPS PUSHING INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.

FARTHER NORTHWEST...VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ND/NORTHWEST MN AREA SOUTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG.  HAVE TRACKED WAVE ON STEADY EAST TO SOUTHEAST PATH FOR
LAST 24 HOURS AT A STEADY 40 KTS.  THIS TRACK AND SPEED WILL CARRY
WAVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND INTO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  NAM-WRF HANDLING
THIS FIRST WAVE A BIT BETTER THAN GFS.  WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING
INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY DURING THE NIGHT AND A SURGE OF LOW
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION...WILL ADD SCHC POPS TO ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE
TONIGHT.

LAST SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROUNDING RIDGE IN VICINITY OF ALBERTA
PROVINCE AT THIS TIME.  GFS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THIS SECONDARY SHORT
WAVE BUT NOT SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT CIRCULATION IN WV IMAGERY AT
THIS TIME.  AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES ON THURSDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN 6 TO
7 DEGREE RANGE. BULK SHEAR MORE IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY WITH LOWER
WET BULB ZEROS.  WL CONT CHC POPS FOR CONVECTION AT THIS POINT BUT
HOLD OFF ON SCT MENTION.  GFS DID SHOW IMPRESSIVE AREA OF 400MB
POTENTIAL VORTICITY AREA THAT PASSES BY ON THURSDAY.  IF THIS IS
REALIZED...THEN BETTER CHANCE FOR SCT ACTIVITY.  BUMPED TEMPERATURES
UPWARD ON SATURDAY AS DRY SOUTHWEST WINDS SET UP UNDER LOTS OF
INSOLATION.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
EMPHASIS ON TIMING OF BREAKDOWN OF UPSTREAM RIDGING WHICH ALLOWS
COOL FRONT TO SAG THROUGH WISCONSIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  MAJORITY
OF LONG TERM GUIDANCE INCLUDING ECMWF AND GFS SHOWING HIGHER
AMPLITUDE TROFFING DEVELOPING OVER ERN CONUS DURING THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO.
HOWEVER LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS SLOWING DOWN FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL MONDAY...AND ECMWF ABOUT A DAY LATER WITH THE DEVELOPING
NORTHWEST FLOW.  HENCE DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING...WL CONTINUE
CHC POPS ACROSS CWA BEGINNING SUN NGT AND CONTG THROUGH MON NGT.
WITH SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE MUCH OF
SUNDAY...WL CUT BACK TO SCHC POPS AND ONLY IN NRN HALF OF CWA.  DRY
SWLY WINDS AND DEWPTS IN THE 60S...BUMPED UP HIGH TEMPS SUN IN THE
90 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE AS 850HPA TEMPS CLIMB TO 21-22C.  GFS
ENSEMBLES SPLIT ABOUT 50/50 WITH AMOUNT OF NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
TUE AND WED. WL CONTINUE WITH DRY LATER PERIODS FOR NOW.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GFS 5 DAY 500HPA MEANS.  PERSISTENT WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS THRU NEXT WEEK AS UPSTREAM
LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMOLY WEAKENS.

&&

.AVIATION...LK FOR VFR CONDS TNGT AND THUR. HWVR...PIECES OF UPR LVL
ENERGY WL PROD SCT -SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA THIS EVNG AND OVRNGT. AMS RMNS
UNSTBL THUR SO SCT -TSRA COULD RDVLP. DO NOT XPCT ORGANIZED CIGS BLO
040 OR VSBYS BLO 6SM TNGT OR THUR.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
11/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 051958
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
258 PM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY WARM WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND
VARIETY OF RAIN CHANCES.

.SHORT TERM...EXPECTING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TO COME TO AN END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. CRAS LOOP AGREES WITH BLOOMING OF BULK OF
CONVECTION OVER NORTH PORTIONS OF CWA AS WELL AS CLOUD DISSIPATION
BY 06Z. MSAS LIFTED INDICES SHOWING SOME STABILIZING OF AIRMASS OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA DURING AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEW POINTS
MIX OUT. MEANWHILE...BETTER CONCENTRATION OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AT
500 MILLIBARS FOCUSED OVER NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN
ALONG WITH DECENT COLD AIR TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...WEATHER NIL AS PROGS AGREE ON HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
ACROSS CWA WITH TIME. IDEAL SET UP EVOLVING FOR A SURGE OF VERY
WARM TO HOT AIR ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS WEEKEND. 850
MILLIBAR WINDS PROGGED TO TURN TO SOUTHWEST WITH DECENT GRADIENT
ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY. 850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES PROGS BETWEEN
19C AND 22C SATURDAY AND 22C TO 24C SUNDAY. SURFACE DEW POINTS
PROGGED TO BE IN MID TO UPPER 60S. BUT WITH GOOD MIXING OF DRY
AIR RESIDING IN LOW LEVEL OF ATMOSPHERE...EXPECT AFTERNOON
HUMIDITIES TO BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY PROGGED. ANOTHER CONCERN ON
SUNDAY WOULD BE CLOUDS FROM ANY CONVECTION IN THE NORTH TO REDUCE
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE. NEVERTHELESS OVERALL PATTERN ALLOWS ON THE
STAY CLOSE TO TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND AND MAKE
ADJUSTMENTS IN LATER FORECASTS.

.LONG LONG TERM...SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LONG RANGE HANDLING OF
TIMING OF SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS LEADS TO BROAD BRUSH RAIN
CHANCES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BUT HAVE THERE WILL BE A TREND
TOWARD COOLER TEMPERATURES AS FRONTAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ALLOW A
PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WL CONT THRU 00Z SAT. XPCT SCT CIGS 050-070 FM
21-06Z. SCT-ISOLD TSRA WITH VSBYS 3-5SM THRU 06Z THIS EVNG DUE TO
COLD UNSTBL AMS IN MID AND HIGH LVLS ALNG WITH UPR LVL ENERGY. AFT
06Z...LK FOR VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH NO WX.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 081956
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
256 PM CDT SUN JUL 8 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EARLY IN
WEEK.

.VERY SHORT TERM...POOLING OF 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS ADVECTING OVER
CWA FROM EASTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO
AROUND 100 EARLY THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 10C FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED OVER CWA GIVES CONFIDENCE TO RETARD ONSET OF
CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING ACROSS CWA.
WRF/NGM/GFS/NAM/RUC PROGS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH COLD FRONT
SAGGING SLOWLY SWD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. TREND OF PROGS QPF
SHOWS BULK OF CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
CWA WITH SOUTH GETTING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION BY 12Z MONDAY.
THERE STILL EXISTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG STORMS GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES AOA 35 KNOTS.

.LONG TERM...PROGS IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH HANGING UP OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF CWA MONDAY. SHALLOW NATURE OF FRONT
PROVIDES FOCUS FOR CHANCY CONVECTION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AIRMASS WILL BE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...SO POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASES. DECENT THETA E RIDGE
LIES OVER CWA THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. CRAS SATELLITE LOOP
SHOWS SEVERAL COLD CLOUD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OVER CWA FORMING OVER
REGION IN WEAK MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. NAM/GFS PROGS BRING
VERY IMPRESSIVE COLD FRONT ACROSS CWA TUESDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS FRONT ALTHOUGH
DYNAMICS REMAIN NORTH OF AREA.

.LONG LONG TERM..GFS/ECMWF PROGS BOTH DEVELOP LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED JUST WEST OF JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS PUTS CWA IN A COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT MOVING SWD ACROSS MN AND NW WI SUN AFTERNOON
WILL SLOWLY MOVE SWD THROUGH SRN WI STARTING AT 03Z BUT BECOMING
STATIONARY ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER MON AFTERNOON. SCT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH THE FRONT TNT AND MON. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS...BUT LIGHT WINDS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOIST
AIRMASS MAY LEAD TO LOCAL MVFR HAZE AND/OR FOG LATE TNT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/20

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 122019
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT THU JUL 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...NEAR TERM FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AND TEMPERATURES THRU THE WEEKEND.

CURRENT -SHRA/TSTMS OVER NRN WI IN RGN OF 1000-850 MB THETA-E
CONVERGENCE AND ALONG SFC TROF WHICH IS A REFLECTION OF 500 MB SHRT
WV TROF DROPPING THRU NRN WI. MID LVL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6 TO
6.5C/KM OVER STATE WITH PCPN ON LEADING EDGE OF -17 TO -20C 500 MB
TEMPS THAT WERE INDICATED ON RGNL 12Z RAOBS. MU CAPE AT OR ABOVE 500
J/KG OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE STATE UNDER THIS COOL POCKET...WHICH
WILL BRUSH NERN CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS TROF SWINGS THRU.
SECONDARY VORT MAX ON WRN END OF 500 MB TROF ENHANCING PCPN IN VCNTY
OF RICE LAKE AND EAU CLAIRE...EXPECTED TO CROSS FROM NR WISC RAPIDS
TO LAKE GENEVA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THOUGH BETTER INSTABILITY IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE OF PCPN TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
ENOUGH QG FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS TO SLIDE INTO THE NE HALF OF
CWA...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. WILL TREND SCT PCPN
WITH BETTER 1000-850MB AND 850-700 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE. THIS IN
LINE WITH LOCAL WRF MODEL COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY AND QPF...WHICH
SHOWS A MARKED DECLINE IN PCPN AFTER SUNSET...BUT SOME ISOLATED
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 05Z ON GFS CORE VERSION. WILL MAKE LAST-MINUTE
ADJUSTMENT BEFORE ISSUANCE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

SUBSIDENCE AND SFC HI PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE NEXT
SHRT WAVE IN NW FLOW TO BEGIN SWD TREK ACROSS STATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. PCPN REACHES NRN SECTIONS OF CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE AND SFC TROF PUSH ACROSS RGN...THEN EXITS TO
THE SOUTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SATURDAY...PER FRONTOGENESIS FCSTS.
WILL HOLD TO HI CHANCE POPS NORTH AND TREND LOWER TO THE SW AS
PERSISTENT CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY AGAIN TAKES
BETTER SHRT WV ENERGY THRU NERN CWA. CRAS FCST IR IMAGERY DEPICTS
ENHNACED CLOUD TOPS ALSO FOLLOWING THIS TREND FOR FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING TIME PERIOD.

ANOTHER BREAK ON SUNDAY WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING...AND 850 MB WAA
RAISING TEMPS FROM +14 TO +16C AT 00Z MONDAY...TO +17 TO +20C OVER
SRN WI BY 12Z MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
HAVE BETTER COVERAGE POTENTIAL GIVEN MORE FAVORABLE TIME OF DAY FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALLOWING MIXED LAYER CAPE TO CLIMB TO 1150 TO 1300
J/KG.


.EXTENDED...GFS/GFSENS/EUROPEAN/CANADIAN AND UKMET ALL AGREE THAT
VORTEX OVER JAMES BAY/HUDSON BAY TO LINGER THRU THE EXTENDED PD. ALL
MID RANGE MODELS TAKE A SFC LOW ACROSS SRN CANADA WITH MONDADY/S
WEAK SFC TROF/COLD FRONT STALLING IN VCNTY OF NRN IL/WI BORDER. AS
WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...SOME DIFFERENCES AS TO SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
BOUNDARY THAT WILL AFFECT PCPN CHANCES FOR SRN WI THRU WEDNESDAY.
WITH UNCERTAINTY OF BOUNDARY PLACEMENT FOR ANY GIVEN TIME
PERIOD...WILL FOLLOW HPC BLENDED SOLUTION AND KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS IN FCST FOR FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. ALL MODELS
AGREE THAT HI PRESSURE WILL PUSH BOUNDARY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH BY
THURSDAY TO CLEAR PCPN CHANCES FROM SRN WI FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A WEAK SFC
TROUGH DROPPING SWD THRU SRN WI WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTMS
EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS EAST OF A LINE FROM
KDLL-KMSN-KENW. ANY IMPACTS TO CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BRIEF...WITH AREAL
COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN TERMINALS ATTM. LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TO RESULT IN
CLEARING SKIES BY LATE EVENING...WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
GUSTY W/NWLY WINDS TO EASE BY SUNSET AS WIND DECOUPLE. WEAK RIDGING
TO RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

&&


.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM/MAF

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 132023
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...
PLENTY OF CU OVER SRN WI THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH VERTICAL EXTENT
WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 8500 FT BEHIND DEPARTING SHRT WV
TROF MOVING INTO THE ERN GRT LAKES. HI CLOUDS STREAMING SWD FROM
APPROACH OF NEXT SHRT WAVE TROF THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN ONTARIO
TNT INTO SATURDAY. SREF...GFS AND NAM SIMILAR IN TIMING OF SFC
FRONT...WITH GFS HAVING A SLGTLY BETTER HANDLE ON DEPTH OF
ASSOCIATED SFC LO AT 18Z.

WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH DEEPENING SYSTEM PUSHING 850 MB
WINDS TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS. MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INCERASING FLOW CROSSES MAINLY CNTRL WI BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z. LAYER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ALSO BETTER TO OUR NORTHEAST
ABOVE 700 MB AHEAD OF PV ANOMALY. CRAS IR FCST IMAGERY SHOWS MOST
ENHANCED CLOUDS TRACKING FROM NW TO E CNTRL WI. BEST SFC TO 850 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING STAYS NORTH OF CWA UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...SO WILL TIME PCPN INTO CWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SAT WITH
HIGHER CHCS NORTH AND SLGT CHC SOUTH.

FRONT SLOWER TO EXIT SRN WI THAN 24 HRS AGO...PUSHING INTO NRN IL
AROUND 18Z. BEST CHC FOR PCPN SAT MORNING...THEN TRENDING OUT FROM
NW TO SE. HI PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER SUNDAY...WITH NEXT WAVE
BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE MODELS. GFS FASTER WITH PLAINS
CYCLOGENESIS AND TIMING OF FRONT INTO SRN WI THAN NAM. SREF AND EURO
A BIT SLOWER AND PREFERRED SO WILL HOLD PCPN OUT OF CWA UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING.

FRONT MOVES THRU MONDAY AND STALLS OVER NRN/CNTRL IL AND REMAINS A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THRU MID WEEK.

.EXTENDED...
MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW NW FLOW HOLDING UNTIL LATE NEXT
WEEK WHEN UPR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST FOR WRN
RDG TO BUILD IN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. FRONT DROPPING THRU WI MONDAY
STALLING OVER CNTRL/NRN IL. POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THE PLAINS
COULD TRACK EAST ALONG BOUNDARY TUE AND WED NIGHTS. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT OF LO PRESS IN PLAINS AND
SUBSEQUENT NOCTURNAL LOW LVL JET STRENGTH. WILL GO WITH BLENDED
FIELDS AND COLLABORATIVE SOLUTION...KEEPING CHC POPS IN SRN CWA AND
TAPERING TO THE NORTH AWAY FROM BNDRY LOCATION UNTIL IT LIFTS BACK
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT. END OF THE WEEK
LOOKS WARM...WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS RISING ABOVE 590 DM AND 850 MB
TEMPS CLIMB TO +20C AND ABOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF PD.
SCT-BKN CU FIELD ACRS SRN WI THIS AFTN WITH CI COMING ACRS UP TOP
FROM THE NW. CHCS OF CONVECTION INCREASE AFT 8Z. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE LATER TNGT AS DECENT PRES GRAD EVOLVES AHEAD OF FRONT. WILL
NOT LWR CIGS BLO VRF AS YET GIVEN ANTICIPATED EVEVATED NATURE OF
TSTMS. BUFKIT SOUNDING PROFILE BEARS OUT WELL BOTH THE ELEVATED
INSTAB ABV LOW  LEVEL DRY AIR. SOUNDINGS DO ATTEMPT SOME SATURATION
IN THE LWO LEVELS AT TIME OF CONVECTION THO THIS IS BRIEF AND STILL
IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 140912
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
412 AM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT VIA 50 KT LLJ IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN CWA. THEY WILL
QUICKLY MOVE E-SEWD AND EXIT MOST OF SRN WI BY 12Z. COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER NW WI WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS SRN WI FROM LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ENOUGH CAPE
FOR RE- DEVELOPMENT...WHICH MAY OCCUR IN NRN IL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

NW FLOW TO CONTINUE WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION LATER
TNT INTO SUN NT. WEAK VORITICY MAXIMUMS WITHIN THE FLOW MAY BRING
SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GFS APPEARS TO
BE TOO FAST WITH PROGRESSION OF SFC WAVE AND ASSOCEATED MCS FOR
SUN NT/MON. NAM...CRAS...AND OTHER MODELS SUPPORT CHANCE POPS FROM
MON THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A COUPLE SFC WAVES WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF WI. FOR TEMPS WENT COOLER THAN GFS MOS GUIDANCE
THROUGH MON AS MODEL IS TO PROGRESSIVE AND THEREFORE TOO WARM.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KMKE
BETWEEN 0930Z AND 1100Z.  ELEVATED NATURE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD
KEEP MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THOUGH MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.  PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST NORTH OF KMSN.
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY AND REST OF DAY
SHOULD BE FINE WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS.  DIURNAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION SHOULD BE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

GEHRING/CRAVEN

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 142019
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
319 PM CDT SAT JUL 14 2007

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CLEARING SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDNG IN. WEAK DCVA WITH LOBE
FROM DEPARTING VORT MAX AND INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB COLD POOL
SWEEPING OVER NE WI AT MAX HEATING TIME TRIGGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALONG SECONDARY SFC TROF. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THESE PRIOR TO
ISSUANCE TIME...THO DIURNAL NATURE OF SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH THREAT
TOWARDS EVENING.

SERIES OF UPSTREAM VORTICITY MAXIMA DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH CNTRL
CANADA ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO CROSS STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS IN NW FLOW. NAM APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING CONVERGENCE AND
1000-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITH WEAK SFC TROF ALL MODELS ARE
SHOWING FOR SUNDAY...WITH A 12 MICROBAR/SEC OMEGA BULLSEYE BELOW
10KT FT ON CROSS SECTIONS FOR MSN.

WITH A POOR PERFORMANCE INITIALIZING AND TRACKING TODAY/S PCPN AND
TOO MOIST DEW POINTS FEEDING THE MEAGER CAPE ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FOR SUNDAY...WILL TREND WITH THE GFS AND LOCAL WRF 20 KM AND KEEP
SUNDAY DRY...WITH CVA AND BETTER QG FORCING STAYING TO THE N OF OUR
AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING.

GFS CONTINUES TO BE QUICKEST BRINGING WAVE IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. CRAS AND WRF 20 INDICATING BETTER FORCING WITH THIS WAVE MAY
BE THRU SRN MN/ERN IA/WRN WI MONDAY...WITH PCPN NOT BREAKING OUT
OVER CWA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM INCREASING 850
MB FLOW OVER STALLING SFC BNDRY. WILL SPLIT TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
BRING SLGT CHC INTO NW HALF OF CWA AFTER 06Z MONDAY...THEN ACROSS
ALL OF CWA FOR MONDAY.

.EXTENDED...
BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS AMONG THE MID
RANGE MODELS IS A SLOWER EXIT TO THE NE OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX AS
A SHRT WV TROF DROPS DOWN BACK OF MEAN TROF POSITION MID WEEK WHICH
DELAYS WRN RDG FROM BUILDING INTO THE CNTRL CONUS UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. CONSENSUS HAS BNDRY THAT MOVES THRU MONDAY STALLING A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH OVR CNTRL IL WITH MORE OF A NNWLY FLOW ALOFT...THEN
SUBSEQUENT SERIES OF WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA AND ASSOC SFC WAVES ALONG
FRONT TO KEEP PCPN CHCS IN FCST. TRIED TO VARY POPS TO REFLECT
BETTER/LESSER CHCS THRU THE EXTENDED UNTIL EXPECTED HI PRESS BUILDS
IN FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. 7/14/07 12Z GFS NOW SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WHICH BRINGS A RETURN TO 500 MB RIDGING AND
WARM 850 TEMPS BUILDING IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH
BLENDED SOLUTION FOR NOW AND WAIT FOR BETTER CONTINUITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CU FIELD WILL BE PREVALENT INTO THIS EVE IN WAKE OF DEPARTED
COLD FRONT. ISALLOBARIC CONTRIBUTIONS...PRES GRAD AND SUBSIDENCE
LEADING TO SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS TO 25 KTS. THIS EXPECTED TO ABATE
DURG EVE AS GRAD SLACKENS WITH SYS MOVG FURTHER AWAY. LIGHTER WIND
REGIME ON TAP FOR TNGT. WILL STEER CLOSER TO THE GFS SOUNDING FOR CU
DEVELOPMENT SUN MRNG AND KEEP IT IN VFR CAT GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
UPSTREAM DEW POINTS SUPPORT 50S MORE THAN THE 60S IMPLIED BY THE NAM
SOUNDINGS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 170804
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

I WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW GFS SOLUTION IN KEEPING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. I THINK NAM SOLUTION OF
MOVING BOUNDARY FURTHER NORTH IS UNLIKELY. STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL SERVE TO FOCUS MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

H700 CAP IS FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
GFS INDICATES CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL SOUTHEAST JUST EAST
OF THE CAP. ALL MODELS INDICATE A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES TRACKING
SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW...PRODUCING A SERIES OF CONVECTIVE
AREAS WHICH SHOULD TRAVEL ALONG THE MID LEVEL CAP...AND SURFACE
BOUNDARY INTO CWA. CRAS IR LOOP IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS
AND NAM FORECAST UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TRAVELING SOUTHEAST IN H500
FLOW INTO CWA. MODELS INDICATE PERIODS OF STRONG OMEGA...FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING AND THETA-E RIDGING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BOTH NAM AND
GFS INDICATE PERIODS OF STRONG ISENT LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAV
MOS POPS LOOK REASONABLE.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF WISCONSIN
THURSDAY MORNING...A STRONG SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO ROTATE ACROSS
WISCONSIN DURING THE DAY. A 100KT H300 JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. MOISTURE MAY BE LACKING...BUT THE UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE STRONG. WILL MENTION SMALL POPS FOR THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...SFC FRONT FROM SRN MN TO SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODELS DIFFER ON NORTH-SOUTH MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE...AS A COUPLE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC
LIFT/FRONTO-FORCING DROP SOUTHEAST IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL
CLOUD LAYERS EXPECTED...RANGING FROM AROUND 3500 TO 10000...WITH
ISOLATED POCKETS OF MVFR CONDS OF CIGS 2500.  VSBYS POSSIBLY
DROPPING TO 5 MILES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. MODELS SUGGEST POSSIBILITY
OF MCS TUEDAY NIGHT...BUT CAN/T PIN TIMING OF THIS EVENT DOWN AT
THIS TIME. BATCH OF CONVECTION IN SRN MN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING...THEN EXPECT MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
IN SOUTHEAST CORNER JUST ABOUT OVER.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

35/34

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 180804
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
304 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS REMAINS ON RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

I HAVE BASICALLY IGNORED THE QPF PATTERN OF MODELS AND MOS POPS
SINCE THESE HAVE BEEN BAD THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVES HAVE ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENT ON MODELS. ORGANIZED CONVECTION
HAS GENERALLY BEEN ALONG THE H850 BAROCLINIC ZONE AND NOT THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...SO I WILL FOLLOW THIS PATTERN FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH H850 BARO ZONE NEXT TWO
PERIODS. THE LLJ AND BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD REMAIN ORIENTATED
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST NEAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN TODAY...JUST NORTH
OF THE H700 CAP. ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THIS
REGION TODAY...WITH SMALLER CHANCES TO THE EAST. THE MODELS
FORECAST THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND HENCE THE QPF PATTERN...TO
BECOME ORIENTATED MORE WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WHICH WILL GIVE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. CRAS IR LOOP IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE NAM12 LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE CWA THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THE BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN PUSHED
SOUTH OF WISCONSIN...AND THE COLUMN DRIES OUT. THE CAA PATTERN IS
WELL UNDERWAY AS THE CANADIAN RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THE RIDGE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER WISCONSIN FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY WITH QUIET WEATHER AND A VERY DRY
COLUMN.


&&

.AVIATION...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS /FOG AND HAZEE/ THRU ABOUT
MID-MORNING ACROSS SRN WI DUE TO SOME HOLES IN CLOUD COVER AND
LEFTOVER MOISTURE FROM SCATTERED CONVECTION. SOME ISOLATED POCKETS
OF IFR/LIFR FOR A 2-3 HOURS...BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE SURFACE FRONT APPEARS TO BE A
DOUBLE STRUCTURE...ONE IN WI AND ONE DOWN IN IL...BOTH EXTENDING
BACK TINTO SRN MN. WARM AIR ADVECTION STREAM SHOULD CONTINUE TO FIRE
UP STORMS OVER EXTREME SRN MN/NRN IA THROUGH ABOUT 12Z...AND STORM
SHOULD MOVE SEWD ALONG THICKNESS FIELD...MOSTLY AVOIDING SRN WI. SO
EXPECT JUST A CHANCE OF TSTMS POPPING UP FROM TIME TO TIME TODAY IN
SRN WI...BUT THEY ARE LIKELY IN THE IOWA/LAFAYETTE/GREEN COUNTY
AREA. AS THE DAYTIME HEAT BUILDS...EXPECT CLOUDS TO BE SCT TO BKN AT
3500 TO 5000 HEIGHTS...AND VSBYS TO BE IN THE 6-10 MILE RANGE.
SHORTWAVE PROGGED FOR LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT BETTER DYNAMICS FOR
STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE A MCS. AFTER TSTORM COMPLEX WED
NIGHT...MVFR FOG AND AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO LIGHT
WINDS AND HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...LOCAL IFR VSBYS AND
CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN WAKE OF TSTORM COMPLEX.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

35/34

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 032055
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
355 PM CDT FRI AUG 3 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.IN THE SHORT TERM...SUNNY SKIES OVER WISCONSIN AS NARROW RIDGE HAS
SETTLED OVER STATE BETWEEN CLOSED 500MB LOW CENTERED NR HUDSON BAY
AND SHORT WAVE TROF TRIGGERING CONVECTION IN CNTRL S DAKOTA. DRY AIR
THAT HAS FILTERED INTO THE REGION...WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WILL BE A PLAYER
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL EASILY COOL INTO THE 50S
AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ENOUGH TO PREVENT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION...THO RIVER VALLEYS WILL SEE SOME
PATCHY AREAS TONIGHT.

NAM AND GFS SLOWER TO BRING REMNANTS OF MCS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH
PLAINS SHRT WAVE INTO WISCONSIN SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NAM SEEMS TO BE
UNDULY IMPACTED BY CURRENT CONVECTION...DEVELOPING A DEEPER SFC AND
MID LVL SYSTEM FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT THAT TRACKS FARTHER
NORTH THAN OTHER MODELS. WILL TREND TOWARDS GFS AND ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS WHICH TRACK MCS ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT BRUSHES SW WI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS 850 WRM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS
SRN WI. HAVE TRENDED POPS TOWARDS GFS AND LOCAL WRF 20KM MODEL QPF
FIELDS. CRAS IR FCST IMAGES FOCUS COLDER CLOUD TOPS FOR TONIGHT
WITH CURRENT CONVECTION IN NE N DAKOTA AS WELL AS S DAKOTA
STORMS...WHICH WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH WI...WITH A REGENERATION
AROUND 12Z NR DBQ.

EXPECT SHOWERS AND TSTRMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
PROXIMITY OF BNDRY WILL KEEP SLGT CHC IN FCST THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PCPN CHANCES CONTINUE THRU WEDNESDAY BUT NOT ALL DAY
AFFAIRS. RIDGING FINALLY BRINGS DRY WEATHER FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

GENERALLY FOLLOWED MAV/MEX TEMPS...BUT COOLED HIGHS FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED...WITH DEWPOINTS
HAVING MIXED IN TO THE LOWER 40S IN MANY AREAS.  THAT SHOULD
DISCOURAGE RADIATION FOG FORMATION TONIGHT.   ANVIL CIRRUS FROM
DISTANT THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SLOWLY LOWERING VFR
CEILINGS.  LATE IN THE AFTERNOON LIGHT RAIN MAY BEGIN AT MADISON
FROM MID LEVEL DECK...BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF CEILINGS OR
VISIBILITIES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

REM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 192029
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
328 PM CDT SUN AUG 19 2007

.DISCUSSION...FCST FOCUS ON NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT AND 
ACTIVE WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK.

CWA RELATIVELY RAIN-FREE WITH RGNL PROFILERS AND 88-D VAD WINDS 
SHOWING 850 MB WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE WEST...WITH BEST LIFT 
FOCUSED ON NRN IL CLOSER TO SFC WRM FRONT. RESPITE WILL BE 
SHORT-LIVED AS 2 FEATURES APPROACH CWA. CONVECTION IN SW/ SCNRTL MN 
AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PLACES IN FAR SE 
S DAKOTA...SECOND FEATURE IS APPARENT MCV EJECTING NEWD FROM REMAINS 
OF ERIN WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE SURGING NWD THRU NRN MO/SE IA AND 
INTERACTING WITH SFC FNT DRAPED ACROSS NRN IL. TSTMS ARE FORMING IN 
NERN IA AHEAD OF THIS MCV. SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS 2 GROWING AREAS OF 2 
INCH PWS WITH THESE FEATURES THAT MODEL FCSTS MOVE INTO CWA AFTER 
00Z.

SFC-850 AND 850-700MB 2D FRONTOGENTIC FCSTS SHOW INCREASING FORCING 
AS 850 MB WINDS BACK TO THE SW AHEAD OF THE SHRT WV TROUGH OVER 
LINGERING BAROCLINIC ZONE...THO WINDS WILL BE LOWER THAN LAST 
NIGHT...IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE.  SFC FRONT LIFTS CLOSER TO SRN WI AS 
WELL. MIXED LAYER THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES OVER CWA BETWEEN 06Z 
AND 12Z...WITH GFS BUFKIT SNDGS INDICATING ELEVATED CAPE FOR MSN 
INCREASING FROM AROUND 650 J/KG AT 03Z...TO AROUND 1000 J/KG BY 09Z.
  
CRAS INFRARED FCSTS ALSO INDICATE INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL 
OVER SRN WI AS THE TWO AREAS PHASE OVER NE IA/SW WI WITH CRAS 
SHOWING COLDEST CLOUD TOPS MOVING FROM SE MN/NE IA AT 00Z SPREADING 
OVER THE CWA BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z.

WITH SATURATED GROUND AND ONGOING FLOOD PROBLEMS IN WRN CWA...AND 
LOW COUNTY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD 
WATCH FROM 23Z TODAY THRU 12Z MONDAY FOR COUNTIES CURRENTLY IN THE 
FLOOD WARNING. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FLOOD WARNING GOING UNTIL 7 PM 
FOR S CNTRL WI COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS ONGOING FLOODING 
PROBLEMS...BUT CANCEL FOR SE WI COUNTIES.

BEST FORCING FINALLY MOVES SOUTH OF CWA DURING THE LATE DAY 
MONDAY...BUT SFC BNDRY...850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE AND SERIES OF SHRT 
WAVES EJECTING FROM NW U.S. TROF AND TRACKING ACROSS NRN U.S IN 
ZONAL FLOW WILL KEEP CHC PCPN IN FCST UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.

.EXTENDED...A BLEND OF GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF PREFERRED FOR 
EXTENDED. THIS SOLUTION...FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE 
WEDNESDAY...DROPS THE SFC BNDRY TO THE WI/IL BRDER AND STALLS THERE 
FOR THURSDAY. 850 MB FLOW BACKS TO THE SW AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE 
FROM THE PLAINS AND PROVIDES LIFT ACROSS BNDRY TO KEEP CHC FOR 
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN FCST...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. THIS LAST WAVE IN A SERIES TRACKS ACROSS WRN GREAT LAKES 
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A NEEDED BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS DRY 
COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING SFC 
LOW AND HOLDS OVER REGION THRU THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...XPCT WDSPRD MVFR CONDS IN -RA/-TSRA/BR THRU 00Z MON. 
AREAS OF IFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPCTD IN PDS OF HVY RA/TSRA INTO 18Z MON. 
STNRY FNT ACRS IA AND NRN IL THRU PD WITH MSTR LIFTING OVR FNT INTO 
SRN WI. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 7 PM FOR WIZ056>058-062>064-067>069.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY 
FOR WIZ056>058-062>072.

&&

$$

09/09/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 091850
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
150 PM CDT SUN SEP 9 2007

.SHORT TERM...
AS ADVERTISED 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE TIGHTENING UP FROM THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BACK SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. A LARGE SCALE MID
LEVEL TROF WITH A VERY POSITIVE TILT DRIFTS ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF
THE U.S. AND REACHES THE WRN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. AS THIS
EVOLVES...THERE IS A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
THAT OCCURS FROM SW WI BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY...THEN BREAKS DOWN. THE CIMSS/SSEC CRAS INFRARED
SATELLITE DEPICTION IS PROVIDING A LITTLE BIT OF CLARITY. IT
APPEARS THE SHORTWAVE OVR NRN NW MEXICO WILL LIFT NORTH AND GET
PICKED UP BY THE NRN STREAM TROF AND PROVIDE SOME ADDED FORCING
ACROSS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AN IMPRESSIVE 250 MB JET WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SOME DEEP UVV IN THE RR ENTRANCE REGION. THE CRAS IR
IMAGERY SHOWS THIS NICELY. AS THIS MOVES EAST...IT IS AT THIS
TIME THAT THE FRONTOGENESIS QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN AND DRIER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE IN. WILL HANG ONTO THE CHANCE ACROSS THE SE INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS THE RR OF THE UPR JET IS STILL PROVIDING SOME
INFLUENCE.

.LONG TERM...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FORCE FOR SRN WI FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DRY WEATHER DURING THE
PERIOD. STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY FOR THE LATER PART OF THE FCST
PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS ACROSS THE NRN GRT LKS THU NIGHT AHEAD
OF AN IMPRESSIVELY CHILLY CANADIAN HIGH EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH
INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
PCPN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. TIMING IS A BIG ISSUE
AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...SRN WI WL REMAIN IN A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME 
BETWEEN STG SFC HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS AND WEAK LOW OVER THE OHIO 
VALLEY.  VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCNL MVFR 
CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR LK MICHIGAN DUE TO ENHANCED LOW LVL CONVERGENCE. 
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO EJECT ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT INTO 
MONDAY. SHOWERS DVLPG OVER IOWA TO SPREAD EWD INTO WI TOWARDS 
MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES. BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP 
AT TERMINALS AFTER 15Z WITH PREVAILING MVFR 
CIGS/VSBYS...OCCASIONALLY DROPPING TO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER 
POCKETS OF RAINFALL.


&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
05

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 101914
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
214 PM CDT MON SEP 10 2007

.DISCUSSION...FCST CONCERNS ARE WITH THE TREND OF PCPN ENDING THIS
EVENING...THEN COOLER WEATHER FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.

TIMING OF PCPN SHIELD HAS THE BACK EDGE CLEARING KMSN BY 21-22Z
AND THE SE CORNER PROBABLY BY 02Z-03Z. HUNG ONTO IT A LITTLE
LONGER IN THE SE IN CASE THERE IS SOME SLOWING. ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND FRONTOGENTIC FORCING WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST VERY QUICKLY AFTER
00Z. ENJOYING THE UTILITY OF THE CIMSS/SSEC CRAS MODEL IR
DEPICTION OF CLOUD TRENDS FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BACK EDGE OF
BAROCLINIC ZONE CLOUDS EXITS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NEXT VERY POTENT S/W DROPPING THROUGH MANITOBA
AND SW ONTARIO CANADA ARE APPROACHING QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE CRAS IR DEPICTION IS A BIT HEAVY ON CLOUDS/MOISTURE ALONG THE
EDGES OF BOTH ZONES...BUT THE TIMING LOOKS GOOD. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT WINDOW OF CLEARING OVERNIGHT...BEFORE THE MID DECK ARRIVES
BY 12Z. MAIN FORCING WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD REMAIN TO THE N OF
THE CWA AND DON/T BELIEVE THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ANY
PCPN DOWN HERE ON TUE...SO WILL CONTINUE THE DRY TREND. THOUGH IF
AN AREA IS UNDER ANY RISK OF PCPN ON TUE...IT WOULD BE UP NEAR
SHEBOYGAN AND FOND DU LAC. LIGHT STUFF.

HIGH PRESSURE AND ARRIVAL OF VERY COOL AIR FOR TUE NGT. NAM MOS
THE COLDEST...SHOWING SOME MID 30S IN OUR WRN CWA...WHILE GFS NOT
AS COLD. SPLITTING THE DIFFERENCE WHICH SUPPORTS THE PREV FCST OF
PTCHY FROST IN OUR WRN CWA.

COOLISH ON WED WITH WED EVENING TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT...BEFORE
RISING LATE AS WAA KICKS IN. NON-DIURNAL TREND EXPECTED FOR WED
NGT.

NEXT STRONG CDFNT AND NARROW BAND OF PCPN TIMING PUSHED OFF FOR
MAINLY THU NGT...EXITS THE SE BY EARLY FRI MORNING. THEN A REALLY
CHILLY SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR ARRIVES WITH A VERY LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NICE WEEKEND SHAPING UP.

&&

.AVIATION...AN AREA OF IFR/LIFT CIGS WITH MAINLY MVFR VSBYS ACCOC
WITH RAIN SHIELD WORKING ACRS SRN WI. LLVL RH PROGS...BUFKIT DATA
SUGGEST SOME IMPROVING CIGS/VSBYS THIS EVE AS RAIN DIMINISHES. MORE
APPRECIABLE IMPROVMENT TAKES PLACE DURG THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WILL GO
FOR A TRANSITION TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z TIME FRAME WITH
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR CLEARING DEEPER INTO THE
NIGHT. WHILE MOS WIND SPEEDS SUGGEST SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TNGT...BUFKIT SHOWS PLENTY OF WIND OFF THE DECK TO KEEP MENTION OUT
OF TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
DAVIS

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 122011
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
310 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

.DISCUSSION...SEVERAL ISSUES TO FOCUS ON IN SHORT TERM.  EXPECT COLD
AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TO CONTINUE THINNING AS WARMER
AIR ALOFT RETURNS AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.  WITH
LIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL OFF RAPIDLY BEFORE LEVELING OFF LATER TONIGHT.  WENT WITH
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND EVEN LOWER IN A FEW EASTERN SPOTS.  BOTH NAM
AND GFS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH STRENGTH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND TIMING OF PASSAGE.  HOWEVER PREFER SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM SOLUTION
WHICH IS IN LINE WITH UKMT AND CANADIAN...HOWEVER THIS HAS LITTLE
EFFECT EXCEPT FOR SLOWING WIND SHIFT SEVERAL HOURS.

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE 2-D FULL WIND FRONTOGENESIS TIED IN WITH AREA OF
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE REACHING 10 UNITS ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  ENOUGH INCREASE IN LAYER
RH AFTER 00Z/14 TO WARRANT CONTINUING CHANCE POPS WITH ISOLD THUNDER
AS OVERNIGHT LAPSE RATES OVER 7 DEGREES AND ELEVATED LIFTED INDEX
BELOW ZERO.  HOWEVER BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX LINES UP WELL TO THE NORTH.  CRAS FORECAST IR
IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCEMENT MOVING THROUGH CWA MAINLY FROM 03Z TO 11Z
WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE COMPARED TO SYNOPTIC FORCING.

A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS WELL AS THE THERMAL TROF
SETTLES INTO THE WESTERN GTLAKES.  GFS SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY
ALONG WITH WRF-20KM IN SFC RIDGELINE SETTING UP OVER WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN BY 12Z/15.  SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON 85H
TEMPERATURES AROUND ZERO TO -1C SETTLING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
PLENTY OF TIME FOR WINDS TO DECOUPLE.  SREF PROBABILITIES FOR SFC
TEMPERATURES BLO ZERO INCREASES TO OVER 50 PERCENT OVER THE WESTERN
CWA BY 12Z/15.  THIS PRODUCT PERFORMED FAIRLY WELL THIS MORNING
UPSTREAM IN NORTHWEST WI AND MN.  HENCE WL ADD FROST MENTION ACROSS
CWA WELL AWAY FROM LAKE MI FOR LATE FRI NIGHT.

FOR EXTENDED PERIOD FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED
GUIDANCE IN CONSENSUS ON LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA PUSHING OFF TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY.  LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SETTLES OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS CUTTING OFF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  WEAK SFC BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU WI
SUNDAY AND SUN NGT BUT MOISTURE APPEARS MINIMAL AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF SHOWING MORE IMPRESSIVE SLUG OF RH
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION STEAMING ACROSS SRN GTLAKES. FOR
NOW WL CONT DRY OUTLOOK FOR SUN NGT INTO MON BUT FUTURE SHIFTS WL
NEED TO WATCH FOR CHANGES IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO TEMPORARILY BUILD BACK INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CONUS.
WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO SWEEP NORTHWARD ACROSS CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.  CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS POINT ON AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES NORTH BUT SCHC POPS MAY BE NEEDED
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  GFS ENSEMBLE PERCENT OF PRECIPITATION
HOLDS ONTO LOW POPS THROUGH PERIOD BUT LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF GFS
SLOWING FORCING PERHAPS IN RESPONSE TO TROPICAL SYSTEM. DEEPER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN BY MIDNIGHT AS MORE SUSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE
CROSS PLAINS TOWARD WESTERN GTLAKES.

GFS 5DAY 500HPA MEANS SHOW BROADSCALE TROFFING EXPECTED OVER GTLAKES
DURING SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GRADUALLY SUCCUMB TO WARMER ZONAL FLOW
OVER NRN CONUS WITH SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL HEIGHTS BY LATER NEXT WEEK.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK TROFFING OUT WEST AND LARGE POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMOLY DEVELOPING OVR NRN PACIFIC.  HENCE EXPC COLDER
INTRUSIONS OF TODAY AND WHAT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY TO GET HELD UP
TO THE NORTH FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...HIGH PRES OVER SRN WI WILL SLOWLY MOVE EWD TNT. BREEZY
SLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THU AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST
ACROSS SRN CANADA. VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 0000
UTC FRI.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$
MBK/MGG

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 132035
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 PM CDT THU SEP 13 2007

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT-
GOES SOUNDER SHOWS NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1 TO
1.5 INCHES EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN.
ALSO JUST A BIT OF NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES JUST AHEAD OF CLOUDS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS TREND OF ELEVATED POST FRONTAL CONVECTION
INCREASING FROM NEAR OMA TO RST. THUS...IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF
THE MODELS INCLUDING LOCAL WSWRF 20KM AND 4KM ARW CORES ARE ON
TRACK WITH EXPANDING ELEVATED CONVECTION SOUTH DURING THE EVENING
SO THAT MOST OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN GETS WET. CRAS MODEL ALSO SHOWS
NICE FRONTOGENETIC BAND...BASED AROUND 700 MB...PUSHING ACROSS
AREA TONIGHT. GFS SOUNDINGS IN BUFKIT SHOW ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF CAPE
BASED AROUND 735 MB AT 09Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE GET SOME
HAIL...BUT RISK APPEARS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

TRIED TO DO BEST TO PUT DETAIL INTO TIMING OF 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. LOOKS LIKE SOUTHEAST
REMAINS DRY UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. GIVEN SREF POPS OF ABOUT 80% AND
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN MOST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...WENT ABOUT
20-30% ABOVE MAV GUIDANCE FOR POPS TONIGHT.

FRIDAY-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE AND AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER IN QUESTION.
STRONG COLD ADVECTION SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE
RATHER STEADY OR EVEN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. UPSTREAM
SUNSHINE TODAY RESULTED IN SOME RECOVERY BEHIND THE FRONT IN MN.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE NWP INCLUDING THE CRAS MODEL HAVE QUITE A
BIT OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS TOMORROW...CERTAINLY MORE THAN GFS.
BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH. NEXT SHIFT
WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER AMOUNT OF DIURNAL SC CLOUDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT-
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND CONTINUED DRY/COLD ADVECTION SHOULD
RESULT IN RAPID CLEARING OF LOW CLOUD DECK. WINDS LIKELY STAY UP
ABOVE 5 KNOTS IN THE EAST...KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES IN 35 TO 40
RANGE WITH LESS RISK OF FROST.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH
WINDS LIKELY GOING CALM LOCALLY WITH AREAS OF FROST AND FREEZE.
850 MB TEMPS DROP TO A BRISK 0 TO -2C. COMMENT: THIS FORECASTER NOT
READY FOR WINTER JUST YET.

PATCHY FROST LIKELY AS FAR EAST AS THE KETTLE MORAINE. THIS
IS NOT A SLAM DUNK AS SURFACE HIGH A LITTLE SOUTH AND WEST OF MOST
FAVORABLE TRACK SO WINDS MAY STAY UP A BIT LONGER AND REDUCE THE
RISK. NEXT SHIFT CERTAINLY WILL HAVE TO STRONGLY CONSIDER
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY-
ECMWF MORE BULLISH WITH WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS/PRECIP CHANCES FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THAN GFS. WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN
SOUTHWEST ZONES BUT IT APPEARS THAT LOW LEVEL DRY AIR MAY ENHANCE
SUB CLOUD EVAPORATION AND CREATE MORE OF A VIRGA STORM THAN
ANYTHING.

.LONG TERM...

MONDAY-
GFSENSEMBLES AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
FEATURES...ESPECIALLY 850 MB TEMPS. IN SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME WITH
850 MB TEMPS OF +12 TO +18C...FEEL THAT MEX GUIDANCE CLOSE BUT
PROBABLY A BIT COOL SO BUMPED READINGS UP A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

TUESDAY-
TUESDAY NIGHT APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST PERIOD...AND WENT ABOVE
GUIDANCE GIVEN MODEL AGREEMENT. SEE THAT 12Z GFSENSEMBLES ARE EVEN
WETTER THAN 00Z WITH MEAN QPF OF 0.15 TO 0.30" OVER WI IN NOSE OF
35 KNOT 850 MB JET.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY-
MODELS THEN DIVERGE...WITH GFSENSEMBLES KEEPING MORE UPPER RIDGING
AND STALLING THE FRONT...RESULTING IN WARM SETUP. ECMWF HAS MORE
SURFACE RIDGING AND PUSHES FRONT FARTHER SOUTH. SOME AFFECT OF
TEMPERATURES BUT PROBABLY NOT MUCH IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT
REGARDLESS OF WHAT VERIFIES.

CRAVEN

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. MAY BE SOME MVFR
CEILINGS AT TIMES WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL
PREVAIL VERY LONG...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

WOOD

&&

.MARINE...HAVING SOME LAST MINUTE DOUBTS ABOUT MEETING SCA
CRITERIA FOR A TIME TONIGHT...BUT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP ENOUGH
TOMORROW IN COLD ADVECTION REGIME TO WARRANT IT. WILL MAKE LAST
MINUTE DECISION ABOUT KEEPING SCA HOISTED TONIGHT...

WOOD

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WOOD/08 - AVIATION/MARINE
CRAVEN/02 - LONG TERM

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 162005
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
305 PM CDT SUN SEP 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AS OVERALL
WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/GFS/WRF PROGS AGREE TO ESTABLISH SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT ALL LEVELS OVER CWA BY 18Z MONDAY. THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE THE OVERALL PROGGED SURFACE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINS WITH BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
JET STRUCTURE PASSING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. HOWEVER VERY IMPRESSIVE 850 MILLIBAR LOW LEVEL JET
REFLECTS WELL WITH TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINNING
MONDAY. NOSE OF 30+ KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTING TOWARD CWA WITH
WILL COMBINE WITH SUFFICIENT ISENTROP LIFT AND ADVECT ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO KEEP SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST FOR
WESTERN PORTION OF CWA MONDAY. CRAS WV FORECAST SATELLITE LOOP
CONFIRMS COOLER CLOUD TOP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SOUTHEAST CWA
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS IN ISENTROPIC
PROGS REMAIN AT 100 AND ABOVE.

.LONG TERM...ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION OF
CWA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CRAS WV FORECAST SATELLITE LOOP
DEPICT MUCH COOLER CLOUD TOPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
JET CONTRIBUTION OF +18C TO +20C THERMAL RIDGE WITH 40-50 KNOTS
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FUNNEL IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.50 INCHES. PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCIES RISE TO 1.50 AND COINCIDE WITH COOL FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL STILL KEEP PRECIPITATION IN CHANCY
CATEGORY AS BEST MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND PROGS ALL SHOW A WEAKENING TREND OF
CONVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER CWA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY AREA WEDNESDAY WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES
DUE TO SHALLOW IN NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN SURFACE
SOUTHWEST FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS THURSDAY AND GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
IN BALL PARK WITH QUICK WARM UP.

&&

.AVIATION....DRY RDG HIGH PRES ACRS SRN WI THRU MON. VFR UFN.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 172003
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
303 PM CDT MON SEP 17 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN OF WARM AIR AFTER MIDWEEK.

.SHORT TERM...QUIET WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS MINOR IMPULSE PUSHES INTO
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS NGM/NAM/GFS/WRF PROGS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON BASIC
TIMING OF CONVECTION WITH APPROACHING COOL FRONT. AHEAD OF FRONT...
ESTABLISHED SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS INCLUDES 30+ KNOT LOW
LEVEL JET FUNNELING IN TEMPERATURES OF 18C-20C AS WELL AS
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING AT 1.7
INCHES AT 06Z TUESDAY OVER CWA. SUFFICIENT ISENTROP LIFT IN SMALL
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WHEN CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS DROP
BELOW 50 IS MAINLY FOCUSED AROUND 06Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES AROUND 06Z TUESDAY MAXIMIZE AT 2.00
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN FALL OFF RAPIDLY BY 12Z.
THE BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER JET STRUCTURE IS PROGGED TO
PASS FROM IOWA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY AREA
OF COLDEST CLOUD TOPS PROGGED BY CRAS IR SATELLITE LOOP. THIS
CONTINUES THE WEAKENING TREND OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CWA. THUS WILL KEEP LIKELY
RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS AND GO WITH CHANCY MENTION FOR
THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO
SHALLOW IN NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS THURSDAY AND LASTS INTO FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
AND WARM PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...AREAS MVFR CIGS WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA N OF LN FM
SBM-LNR TIL ARND 03Z...THEN BCMG QUIET WITH VFR CONDS. XPCT VFR
CONDS S OF LN THRU TUE. LK FOR MDT SLY SFC FLOW TNGT AND TUE.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/35

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 180830
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
330 AM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON TIMING OF CONVECTION TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND RETURN OF WARM AIR AFTER MIDWEEK.

.TODAY/TONIGHT...NGM/NAM/GFS/WRF MODELS...TO VARYING DEGREES...AGREE
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE...WITH A DOUBLE/TWIN
STRUCTURE...MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH WI AREA TODAY/TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...BULK OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARS RAPIDLY NORTHEAST WITH
THE SHORT WAVE. CORRESPONDINGLY...FAVORABLE 250MB DIVERGENCE AREA IN
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF UPPER JET STREAK REMAINS SKINNY...AND ACTUALLY
FALLS APART OVER SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. FRONT-FORCING FROM 850 TO 700
MB /5000 TO 10000 FT AGL ALSO WEAKENS. LOW LEVEL JET AXIS OF 50 KTS
FROM KANSAS THRU IA INTO NORTHERN WI PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING
ALSO WEAKENS TODAY DUE TO DIURNAL TREND...AND THE 850 JET STREAK
THEN QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTHERN WI TONIGHT. MY
COUNTY WARNING AREA ONLY BRIEFLY GETS INTO 850 MB DEWPOINT AIR OF
+12 TO +14 TONIGHT WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SO...THERE APPEARS TO BE ENUF LOW LEVEL FORCING/MOISTURE TO AT LEAST
GIVE SOUTHERN WI A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT ALL THE NEGATIVE
POINTS SUGGEST THAT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM FALLS APART OVER
SOUTHERN WI WITH TIME...AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WI. THE CRAS
IR SATELLITE LOOP CONFIRMS THIS AS CLOUD TOP TEMPS COOL SLIGHTLY
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z OVER SOUTHERN WI...AND ACTUALLY WARM BY 06Z.

WED-THUR...HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
WI...WITH DRY AIR AND ISENTROPIC DECENT. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS.

THU NGT-FRI...WARM AIR ADVECTION IN LOWER LELVELS RETURNS TO
SOUTHERN WI...ASS UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ROTATE
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH ONLY A BRUSHING EFFECT FOR WI. GFS
MODEL SUGGESTS THAT PART OF THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM TEXAS MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN WI ON FRI...WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
FROM 850 TO 700 MB. THEREFORE...PERHAPS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
FOR FRI.

&&
.AVIATION...KMSN AND KMKE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF TROF THAT IS WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TODAY.  CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
OVR SRN WI INTO THE EVENING. THE TROF AND ASSOC CDFNT REACH MKSN
BTWN 06-09Z TONIGHT.  BY THIS TIME THE FRONT HAS LOST MUCH OF THE
LLV FORCING...THE MID LEVEL S/W HAS SHOT OFF TO THE NE...AND DIURNAL
SUPPORT HAS FADED.  ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WITH THE FRONT WILL BE
DIMINISHING QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. FRONT LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH KMSN
AND KMKE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

KAPELA/05

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 182000
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST FOCUS ON AREAL COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
CONVECTION TONIGHT AND RETURN OF WARM AIR AFTER MIDWEEK.

.SHORT TERM...NGM/NAM/GFS/WRF PROGS ARE SLOWING APPROACH OF
CONVECTION BY SEVERAL HOURS AS SURFACE COOL FRONT AND BULK OF
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION CURRENTLY CONTINUE OVER MINNESOTA AND IOWA.
AHEAD OF FRONT...UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW AT ALL LEVELS
INCLUDES 30 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET AND 850 MILLIBAR THERMAL
TEMPERATURE RIDGE ALONG WITH MOISTURE AS DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S
ALREADY IN PLACE OVER CWA. PREVIOUSLY PROGGED ISENTROPIC LIFT FOR
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN NOW ABSENT AND CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
DROP TO JUST BELOW 50 AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCIES AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY ALSO HAVE BEEN
REDUCED TO AROUND 1.50 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND THEN FALL
OFF RAPIDLY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE BEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER
JET STRUCTURE IS STILL PROGGED TO PASS FROM IOWA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...BUT TAIL OF UPWARD MOTION OVER CWA SOMEWHAT REDUCED IN
STRENGTH FROM PREVIOUS PROG RUNS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY LOOP OF
COLDEST CLOUD TOPS PROGGED BY CRAS IR SATELLITE LOOP. THUS
DELAYING AND WEAKENING TREND OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST OVER CWA LOOKS REASONABLE.
WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR WESTERN PORTIONS AND GO WITH
LOWER RAIN CHANCE NUMBERS IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES ACROSS AREA WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN TEMPERATURES DUE TO
SHALLOW IN NATURE OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEN SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS THURSDAY AND LASTS INTO FRIDAY WITH A GENERALLY DRY
AND WARM PERIOD OF WEATHER EXPECTED. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN IN
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...KMSN AND KMKE IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF TROF THAT IS WELL
WEST OF THE AREA TODAY.  CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
OVR SRN WI INTO THE EVENING. THE TROF AND ASSOC CDFNT REACH MKSN
BTWN 06-09Z TONIGHT.  BY THIS TIME THE FRONT HAS LOST MUCH OF THE
LLV FORCING...THE MID LEVEL S/W HAS SHOT OFF TO THE NE...AND DIURNAL
SUPPORT HAS FADED. KEEPING MKE DRY WITH THE FRONT...MORE IN LINE
WITH GFS POPS AND GUID CIG CONSIDERATIONS.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

ZAJDEL/10

----------------------------------------------------------------------

000
FXUS63 KMKX 202013
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
315 PM CDT THU SEP 20 2007

.SHORT TERM...LOW STRATUS AND FOG THAT ADVECTED INTO CWA NE OF A MKE
TO DELLS LINE OFF LK MICHIGAN THIS MORNING HAS MIXED OUT OVER LAND
AREAS...THO HANGING ONTO THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE. WITH PERSISTENT
SERLY FLO OFF LAKE WILL SEE IF DISSIPATING TREND CONTINUES...BUT MAY
HAVE TO ADD MENTION OF EVENING FOG ALONG LAKE AT ISSUANCE SINCE
STRONGER SRLY SFC WINDS DO NOT INITIATE THER UNTIL 06Z OR AFTER.

AS STRONG SHRT WAVE DIVING TWDS NRN MT SWEEPS ACROSS NRN TIER OF
STATES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LEE TROF CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE
WRN DAKOTAS DEVELOPS INTO A 998 MB LOW AT 06Z CNTRD OVER S DAKOTA
AND RAPIDLY DEEPENS TO 991-992 MB OVER FAR NRN MN AT 18Z...AND
BOTTOMS OUT BETWEEN 972 AND 976 MB NR JAMES BAY BY 12Z SAT.

STRONG ISALLOBARIC FORCING AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PRODUCE MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG S-SWLY SFC WINDS ACROSS CWA
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS JUST
UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA AS THEY APPROACH 35 TO 40 MPH...AS NEAR
DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES MIX OUT TO 38-40 KNOT WINDS AT 875 MB.

TSTMS CURRENTLY IN CNTRL MN LIFTING TO THE NE ON NOSE OF 45 TO 55KT
850MB WINDS IN RGN OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. MODELS TAKE THIS
POCKET OF LIFT TO LK SUPERIOR BY MIDNIGHT...WITH A REFOCUSING OF
LIFT AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW AND STORMS REDEVELOPING OVER SRN MN
OVERNIGHT. WILL LEAVE CWA DRY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

AS STRONG SHRT WAVE SHOOTS THRU NRN WI FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS STATE...WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE STRONGER TO OUR NORTH WITH BETTER DYNAMICS.
BUFKIT SNDGS SHOW A STRENGTHENING CAP OVER CWA...WITH 850MB TEMPS
REACHING +18C. SIMILAR PATTERN WITH THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS HAS FAIRLY
DECENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPROACHING WRN CWA...THEN
DIMINISHING AS BETTER FORCING LIFTS NE. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY HIER POPS
OVER NRN AND WRN CWA...TRAILING OFF TO THE SE. CRAS INFRARED FCST
ALSO KEEP COLDER CLOUD TOPS TO OUR NORTH...WITH AGREEMENT OF FRONT
EXITING TO OUR SE AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z SAT.

TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS OF 90F AT BOTH MKE A