James Kossin, PhD
Atmospheric Research Scientist

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI)
Center for Weather and Climate, Asheville, NC

Duty Station:
NOAA Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

Home Publications About



    Kossin, J. P., 2017: Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods. Nature, 541, 390-393. Link. ....... Link to Shared-Access article (View-Only).

    Zhang, L., T. Rechtman, K. B. Karnauskas, L. Li, J. P. Donnelly, and J. P. Kossin, 2017: Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL073869. Link.

    Velden, C., T. Olander, D. Herndon, and J. P. Kossin, 2017: Reprocessing the most intense historical tropical cyclones in the satellite era using the Advanced Dvorak Technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 971-983. Link.


    Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and S. J. Camargo, 2016: Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure. J. Climate, 29, 5725-5739. Link.

    Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2016: Comment on 'Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones'. Env. Res. Lett., 11, 068001. Link.

    Kossin, J. P., and M. DeMaria, 2016: Reducing operational hurricane intensity forecast errors during eyewall replacement cycles. Wea. Forecasting, 31, 601-608. Link.

    Walsh, K. J. E., J. L. McBride, P. J. Klotzbach, S. Balachandran, S. J. Camargo, G. Holland, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, T.-C. Lee, A. Sobel, and M. Sugi, 2016: Tropical cyclones and climate change. WIREs Climate Change, 7, 65-89, doi:10.1002/wcc371. Link.

    Knapp, K. R., J. L. Matthews, J. P. Kossin, and C. C. Hennon, 2016: Identification of tropical cyclone “storm types” using crowd-sourcing. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 3783-3798. Link.

    Yan, Q., T. Wei, R. Korty, J. P. Kossin, Z. Zhang, and H. J. Wang, 2016: Enhanced intensity of global tropical cyclones during the mid-Pliocene warm period. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 113, 12963–12967. Link.

    Herring, S. C., A. Hoell, M. P. Hoerling, J. P. Kossin, C. J. Schreck III, and P. A. Stott, Eds., 2016: Explaining extreme events of 2015 from a climate perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S1–S145.


    Kossin, J. P., T. R. Karl, T. R. Knutson, K. A. Emanuel, K. E. Kunkel, and J. J. O'Brien, 2015: Reply to 'Comment on "Monitoring and Understanding Trends in Extreme Storms - State of Knowledge"' Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 1177–1179. Link.

    Kossin, J. P., 2015: Validating atmospheric reanalysis data using tropical cyclones as thermometers. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 1089–1096. Link.

    Kossin, J. P., 2015: Hurricane wind-pressure relationship and eyewall replacement cycles. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 177-181. Link.

    Herring, S. C., M. P. Hoerling, J. P. Kossin, T. C. Peterson, and P. A. Stott, Eds., 2015: Explaining extreme events of 2014 from a climate perspective. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, S1–S172. Link.

    Rozoff, C. M., C. S. Velden, J. Kaplan, J. P. Kossin, and A. J. Wimmers, 2015: Improvements in the probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification resulting from inclusion of passive microwave observations. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1016-1038. Link.

    Walsh, K. J. E., S. J. Camargo, G. A. Vecchi, A. S. Daloz, J. Elsner, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, Y.-K. Lim, M. Roberts, C. Patricola, E. Scoccimarro, A. H. Sobel, S. Strazzo, G. Villarini, M. Wehner, M. Zhao, J. P. Kossin, T. LaRow, K. Oouchi, S. Schubert, H. Wang, J. Bacmeister, P. Chang, F. Chauvin, C. Jablonowski, A. Kumar, H. Murakami, T. Ose, K. A. Reed, R. Saravanan, Y. Yamada, C. M. Zarzycki, P. L. Vidale, J. A. Jonas and N. Henderson, 2015: Hurricanes and climate: the U. S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 997-1017. Link.

    Hennon, C. C., K. R. Knapp, C. J. Schreck III, S. E. Stevens, J. P. Kossin, P. W. Thorne, P. A. Hennon, M. J. Kruk, J. Rennie, J.-M. Gadea, M. Striegl, and I. Carley, 2015: Cyclone Center: Can citizen scientists improve tropical cyclone intensity records? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 96, 591-607. Link..

    Kaplan, J., C. M. Rozoff, M. DeMaria, C. R. Sampson, J. P. Kossin, C. S. Velden, J. J. Cione, J. P. Dunion, J. A. Knaff, J. A. Zhang, J. F. Dostalek, J. D. Hawkins, T. F. Lee, and J. E. Solbrig, 2016: Evaluating environmental impacts on tropical cyclone rapid intensification predictability utilizing statistical models. Wea. Forecasting, 30, 1374-1396. Link.

    Daloz, A. S., S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, K. Emanuel, M. Horn, J. A. Jonas, D. Kim, T. LaRow, Y.-K. Lim, C. M. Patricola, M. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, D. Shaevitz, P. L. Vidale, H. Wang, M. Wehner, and M. Zhao, 2015: Cluster analysis of downscaled and explicitly simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, 28, 1333-1361. Link.


    Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2014: The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature, 509, 349-352. PDF

    Schreck, C. J. III, K. R. Knapp, and J. P. Kossin, 2014: The impact of best track discrepancies on global tropical cyclone climatologies using IBTrACS. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 3881-3899. Link.

    Banholzer, S., J. Kossin, and S. Donner, 2014: The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters. In: Preventing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change. [A. Singh and Z. Zommers (Eds)]. Springer Netherlands, pp. 387, May 2014. Chapter available here. Complete book available here.

    Walsh, J., D. Wuebbles, K. Hayhoe, J. Kossin, K. Kunkel, G. Stephens, P. Thorne, R. Vose, M. Wehner, J. Willis, D. Anderson, S. Doney, R. Feely, P. Hennon, V. Kharin, T. Knutson, F. Landerer, T. Lenton, J. Kennedy, and R. Somerville, 2014: Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 19-67. doi:10.7930/J0KW5CXT. Link to 3rd National Climate Assessment, Chapter 2, "Changes in Hurricanes".

    Peterson, T. C., T. R. Karl, J. P. Kossin, K. E. Kunkel, J. H. Lawrimore, J. R. McMahon, R. S. Vose, and X. Yin, 2014: Changes in weather and climate extremes: State of knowledge relevant to air and water quality. J. of the Air and Waste Management Association, 64, 184-197. Link to Open Access paper.


    Kossin, J. P., T. L. Olander, and K. R. Knapp, 2013: Trend analysis with a new global record of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Climate, 26, 9960-9976. PDF.

    Zwiers, F. W., L. V. Alexander, G. C. Hegerl, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. Naveau, N. Nicholls, C. Schär, S. I. Seneviratne, and X. Zhang, 2013: Challenges in estimating and understanding recent changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. In Climate Science for Serving Society: Research, Modeling and Prediction Priorities. Ghassem R. Asrar, and James W. Hurrell (Eds). Springer, Netherlands, pp. 339-389. PDF

    Kunkel, K. E., T. R. Karl, H. Brooks, J. Kossin, J. Lawrimore, D. Arndt, L. Bosart, D. Changnon, S. Cutter, N. Doesken, K. Emanuel, P. Ya. Groisman, R. W. Katz, T. Knutson, J. O'Brien, C. Paciorek, T. Peterson, K. Redmond, D. Robinson, J. Trapp, R. Vose, S. Weaver, M. Wehner, K. Wolter, and D. Wuebbles, 2013: Monitoring and understanding trends in extreme storms: State of knowledge. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499-514. PDF

    Christensen, J. H., K. Krishna Kumar, E. Aldrian, S.-I. An, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, M. de Castro, W. Dong, P. Goswami, A. Hall, J. K. Kanyanga, A. Kitoh, J. Kossin, N.-C. Lau, J. Renwick, D. Stephenson, S.-P. Xie and T. Zhou, 2013: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y.Xia, V. Bex, P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Link to AR5, Chapter 14.

    Schreck, C. J. III, L. Shi, J. P. Kossin, and J. J. Bates, 2013: Identifying the MJO, equatorial waves, and their impacts using 32 years of HIRS upper-tropospheric water vapor. J. Climate, 26, 1418-1431. Link.


    Sitkowski, M., J. P. Kossin, C. M. Rozoff, and J. Knaff, 2012: Hurricane eyewall replacement cycles and the relict inner eyewall circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 4035-4045. PDF

    Williams, S. J., D. Atkinson, A. R. Byrd, H. Eicken, T. M. Hall, T. G. Huntington, Y. Kim, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, M. Lilly, J. J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, A. Parris, J. Ratcliff, T. Ravens, D. Resio, P. Ruggiero, E. R. Thieler, J. G. Titus, T. V. Wamsley, 2012: Physical climate forces. In: Coastal Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: A Technical Input to the 2012 National Climate Assessment [Burkett, V.R. and Davidson, M.A. (eds.)]. Cooperative Report to the 2013 National Climate Assessment, pp. 150. PDF

    Evan, A. T., J. P. Kossin, C. E. Chung and V. Ramanathan, 2012: Reply to "How have tropical storms over the Arabian Sea intensified?", Nature, 489, E1-E3. PDF

    Kozar, M. E., M. E. Mann, S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, and J. E. Evans, 2012: Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi: 10.1029/2011JD017170. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., D. S. Nolan, J. P. Kossin, F. Zhang, and J. Fang, 2012: The roles of an expanding wind field and inertial stability in tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2621-2643. PDF

    Emanuel, K., F. Fondriest, and J. Kossin, 2012: Potential economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. Weather, Climate, and Society, 4, 110-117. PDF

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2012: Predicting hurricane intensity and structure changes associated with eyewall replacement cycles. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 484-488. PDF

    Seneviratne, S. I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C. M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, G. -K. Plattner, S. K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 109-230. Full report available here.

    Peduzzi, P., B. Chatenoux, H. Dao, A. De Bono, C. Herold, J. Kossin, F. Mouton, and O. Nordbeck, 2012: Tropical cyclones: Global trends in human exposure, vulnerability and risk. Nature Climate Change, 2, 289-294. PDF


    Sitkowski, M., J. P. Kossin, and C. M. Rozoff, 2011: Intensity and structure changes during hurricane eyewall replacement cycles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3829-3847. PDF

    Evan, A., T., J. P. Kossin, C. Chung, and V. Ramanathan, 2011: Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols. Nature, 479, 94-97. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., and J. P. Kossin, 2011: New probabilistic forecast models for the prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 677-689. PDF

    Knapp, K. R., S. Ansari, C. L. Bain, M. A. Bourassa, M. J. Dickinson, C. Funk, C. N. Helms, C. C. Hennon, C. D. Holmes, G. J. Huffman, J. P. Kossin, H.-T. Lee, A. Loew, and G. Magnusdottir, 2011: Globally gridded satellite (GridSat) observations for climate studies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 893-907. PDF


    Kossin, J. P., S. J. Camargo, and M. Sitkowski, 2010: Climate modulation of North Atlantic hurricane tracks. J. Climate, 23, 3057-3076. PDF

    Knutson, T. R., J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3, doi:10.1038/ngeo779. PDF (Article), PDF (Supplemental Material)

    Levinson, D. H., K. R. Knapp, M. C. Kruk, Diamond, H. J., and J. P. Kossin, 2010: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) project: Overview of methods and Indian Ocean statistics. Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Y. Charabi (Ed.), Earth and Environmental Science Series, Springer, 373 pp. PDF


    Kossin, J. P., and S. J. Camargo, 2009: Hurricane track variability and secular potential intensity trends. Climatic Change, 97, 329-337, DOI:10.1007/s10584-009-9748-2. PDF

    Hendricks, E. A., W. H. Schubert, R. K. Taft, H. Wang, and J. P. Kossin, 2009: Lifecycles of hurricane-like potential vorticity rings. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 705-722. PDF

    Evan, A. T., D. J. Vimont, A. K. Heidenger, J. P. Kossin, and R. Bennartz, 2009: The role of aerosols in the evolution of tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies. Science, 324, 778-781. PDF. Link to abstract, paper, and supporting online material.

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2009: An objective model for identifying secondary eyewall formation in hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 876-892. PDF

    Limaye, S. S., J. P. Kossin, C. Rozoff, G. Piccione, D. V. Titov, and W. J. Markiewicz, 2009: Vortex circulation on Venus: Dynamical similarities with terrestrial hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04204, DOI:10.1029/2008GL036093. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., J. P. Kossin, W. H. Schubert, and P. J. Mulero, 2009: Internal control of hurricane intensity: The dual nature of potential vorticity mixing. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 133-147. PDF


    Kossin, J. P., 2008: Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer? Geophys. Res. Lett., L23705, DOI:10.1029/2008GL036012. PDF

    Elsner, J. B., J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Jagger, 2008: The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature, 455, 92-95. PDF. Link to abstract, paper, and supporting online material.

    Bromirski, P. D., and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Increasing hurricane wave power along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C07012, DOI:10.1029/2007JC004706. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., W. H. Schubert, and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Some dynamical aspects of tropical cyclone concentric eyewalls. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 583-593. PDF

    Evan, A. T., A. K. Heidinger, R. Bennartz, V. Bennington, N. M. Mahowald, H. Corrada-Bravo, C. S. Velden, G. Myhre, and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Ocean temperature forcing by aerosols across the Atlantic tropical cyclone development region. Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst., 9, Q05V04, DOI:10.1029/2007GC001774. PDF

    Kunkel, K. E., P. D. Bromirski, H. E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A. V. Douglas, D. R. Easterling, K. A. Emanuel, P. Ya. Groisman, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. D. Komar, D. H. Levinson, R. L. Smith, 2008: Observed Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, S. J. Hassol, A. M. Waple, and W. L. Murray (eds.). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC. PDF

    Knaff, J. A., T. A. Cram, A. B. Schumacher, J. P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Objective identification of annular hurricanes. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 17-28. PDF

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2008: An objective model for identifying secondary hurricane eyewalls. Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 1637-1638.

    Kossin, J. P., 2008: A scientific tempest. Book review, American Scientist, 96, 78-80. PDF


    Kossin, J. P., and D. J. Vimont, 2007: A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1767-1781. Abstract here. PDF article file here

    Vimont, D. J., and J. P. Kossin, 2007: The Atlantic meridional mode and hurricane activity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07709, DOI:10.1029/2007GL029683. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., K. R. Knapp, D. J. Vimont, R. J. Murnane, and B. A. Harper, 2007: A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L04815, DOI:10.1029/2006GL028836. PDF file

    Schubert W. S., C. M. Rozoff, J. L. Vigh, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin, 2007: On the distribution of subsidence in the hurricane eye. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 595-605. PDF file

    Knapp, K. R., and J. P. Kossin, 2007: A new global tropical cyclone data set from ISCCP B1 geostationary satellite observations. J. of App. Remote Sensing, 1, 013505, DOI:10.1117/12.731296. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., J. A. Knaff, H. I. Berger, D. C. Herndon, T. A. Cram, C. S. Velden, R. J. Murnane, and J. D. Hawkins, 2007: Estimating hurricane wind structure in the absence of aircraft reconnaissance. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 89-101. PDF file


    Mueller, K. J., M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, J. P. Kossin, and T. H. VonderHaar, 2006: Objective estimation of tropical cyclone wind structure from infrared satellite data. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 990-1005. PDF file

    Rozoff, C. M., W. H. Schubert, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin, 2006: Rapid filamentation zones in intense tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 325-340. PDF file


    Knievel, J. C., D. S. Nolan, and J. P. Kossin, 2004: An assessment of the balance in a mesoscale vortex within a midlatitude, continental mesoscale convective system. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1827-1832. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2004: Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 151-153. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and C. S. Velden, 2004: A pronounced bias in tropical cyclone minimum sea-level pressure estimation based on the Dvorak technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 165-173. PDF file


    Knaff, J. A., J. P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2003: Annular Hurricanes. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 204-223. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2003: Diffusion versus advective rearrangement of a circular vortex sheet. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 586-589. PDF file


    Kossin, J. P., B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert, 2002: Vortical swirls in hurricane eye clouds. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 3144-3149. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Daily hurricane variability inferred from GOES infrared imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2260-2270. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Oscillations of the Tropical Storm Canopy. Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1295-1296.

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Oscillations of the Cirrus Canopy. Conference Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 361-362.


    Prieto, R., J. P. Kossin, and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Symmetrization of lopsided vorticity monopoles and offset hurricane eyes. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2307-2328. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Mesovortices, polygonal flow patterns, and rapid pressure falls in hurricane-like vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2196-2209. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and M. D. Eastin, 2001: Two distinct regimes in the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the hurricane eye and eyewall. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1079-1090. PDF file

2000 and earlier

    Kossin, J. P., W. H. Schubert, and M. T. Montgomery, 2000: Unstable interactions between a hurricane's primary eyewall and a secondary ring of enhanced vorticity. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 3893-3917. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., 2000: Barotropic instability and asymmetric mixing in hurricanes with primary and secondary eyewalls. Ph.D. Dissertation, Colorado State University. PDF file

    Schubert, W. H., M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Taft, T. A. Guinn, S. R. Fulton, J. P. Kossin, and J. P. Edwards, 1999: Polygonal eyewalls, asymmetric eye contraction, and potential vorticity mixing in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1197-1223. PDF file

    Saridakis, Y. G., and J. P. Kossin, 1990: On exact convergence of the accelerated overrelaxation method when applied to consistently ordered systems. Int. Journal of Comp. Mathematics, 33, 251-261. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., 1987: On exact convergence of the accelerated overrelaxation method when applied to consistently ordered systems. M.S. Thesis, Clarkson University.