James Kossin, PhD
Atmospheric Scientist

United States Department of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC

and

Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI

Home Publications Service About Curriculum Vitae

Refereed Publications

Submitted

    Kossin, J. P., T. L. Olander, and K. R. Knapp, 2013: Trend analysis with a new global record of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Climate, submitted.

    Peterson, T. C., T. R. Karl, J. P. Kossin, K. E. Kunkel, J. H. Lawrimore, J. R. McMahon, R. S. Vose, and X. Yin, 2013: Changes in weather and climate extremes: State of knowledge relevant to air and water quality. J. of Air and Waste Management, submitted.


In press

    Zwiers, F. W., L. V. Alexander, G. C. Hegerl, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. Naveau, N. Nicholls, C. Schär, S. I. Seneviratne, and X. Zhang, 2013: World Climate Research Programme Open Science Conference Community Paper on Climate Extremes: Challenges in estimating and understanding recent changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. Springer Monograph Series, in press.

    Schreck, C. J. III, L. Shi, J. P. Kossin, and J. J. Bates, 2013: Tropical intraseasonal variability in outgoing longwave radiation and upper tropospheric water vapor. J. Climate, in press.

    Kozar, M. E., M. E. Mann, S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, and J. E. Evans, 2013: Statistical modeling of Atlantic tropical cyclone counts. J. Geophys. Res., in press.


2013

    Kunkel, K. E., T. R. Karl, H. Brooks, J. Kossin, J. Lawrimore, D. Arndt, L. Bosart, D. Changnon, S. Cutter, N. Doesken, K. Emanuel, P. Ya. Groisman, R. W. Katz, T. Knutson, J. O'Brien, C. Paciorek, T. Peterson, K. Redmond, D. Robinson, J. Trapp, R. Vose, S. Weaver, M. Wehner, K. Wolter, and D. Wuebbles, 2013: Monitoring and understanding changes in extreme storm statistics: State of knowledge. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499-514. PDF


2012

    Sitkowski, M., J. P. Kossin, C. M. Rozoff, and J. Knaff, 2012: Hurricane eyewall replacement cycles and the relict inner eyewall circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 4035-4045. PDF

    Williams, S. J., D. Atkinson, A. R. Byrd, H. Eicken, T. M. Hall, T. G. Huntington, Y. Kim, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, M. Lilly, J. J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, A. Parris, J. Ratcliff, T. Ravens, D. Resio, P. Ruggiero, E. R. Thieler, J. G. Titus, T. V. Wamsley, 2012: Physical climate forces. In: Coastal Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: A Technical Input to the 2012 National Climate Assessment [Burkett, V.R. and Davidson, M.A. (eds.)]. Cooperative Report to the 2013 National Climate Assessment, pp. 150. PDF

    Evan, A. T., J. P. Kossin, C. E. Chung and V. Ramanathan, 2012: Reply to "How have tropical storms over the Arabian Sea intensified?", Nature, 489, E1-E3. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., D. S. Nolan, J. P. Kossin, F. Zhang, and J. Fang, 2012: The roles of an expanding wind field and inertial stability in tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2621-2643. PDF

    Emanuel, K., F. Fondriest, and J. Kossin, 2012: Potential economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. Weather, Climate, and Society, 4, 110-117. PDF

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2012: Predicting hurricane intensity and structure changes associated with eyewall replacement cycles. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 484-488. PDF

    Seneviratne, S. I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C. M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, G. -K. Plattner, S. K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 109-230. Full report available here.

    Peduzzi, P., B. Chatenoux, H. Dao, A. De Bono, C. Herold, J. Kossin, F. Mouton, and O. Nordbeck, 2012: Tropical cyclones: Global trends in human exposure, vulnerability and risk. Nature Climate Change, 2, 289-294. PDF


2011

    Sitkowski, M., J. P. Kossin, and C. M. Rozoff, 2011: Intensity and structure changes during hurricane eyewall replacement cycles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3829-3847. PDF

    Evan, A., T., J. P. Kossin, C. Chung, and V. Ramanathan, 2011: Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols. Nature, 479, 94-97. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., and J. P. Kossin, 2011: New probabilistic forecast models for the prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 677-689. PDF

    Knapp, K. R., S. Ansari, C. L. Bain, M. A. Bourassa, M. J. Dickinson, C. Funk, C. N. Helms, C. C. Hennon, C. D. Holmes, G. J. Huffman, J. P. Kossin, H.-T. Lee, A. Loew, and G. Magnusdottir, 2011: Globally gridded satellite (GridSat) observations for climate studies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 893-907. PDF


2010

    Kossin, J. P., S. J. Camargo, and M. Sitkowski, 2010: Climate modulation of North Atlantic hurricane tracks. J. Climate, 23, 3057-3076. PDF

    Knutson, T. R., J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3, doi:10.1038/ngeo779. PDF (Article), PDF (Supplemental Material)


2009

    Kossin, J. P., and S. J. Camargo, 2009: Hurricane track variability and secular potential intensity trends. Climatic Change, 97, 329-337, DOI:10.1007/s10584-009-9748-2. PDF

    Hendricks, E. A., W. H. Schubert, R. K. Taft, H. Wang, and J. P. Kossin, 2009: Lifecycles of hurricane-like potential vorticity rings. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 705-722. PDF

    Evan, A. T., D. J. Vimont, A. K. Heidenger, J. P. Kossin, and R. Bennartz, 2009: The role of aerosols in the evolution of tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies. Science, 324, 778-781. PDF. Link to abstract, paper, and supporting online material.

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2009: An objective model for identifying secondary eyewall formation in hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 876-892. PDF

    Limaye, S. S., J. P. Kossin, C. Rozoff, G. Piccione, D. V. Titov, and W. J. Markiewicz, 2009: Vortex circulation on Venus: Dynamical similarities with terrestrial hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04204, DOI:10.1029/2008GL036093. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., J. P. Kossin, W. H. Schubert, and P. J. Mulero, 2009: Internal control of hurricane intensity: The dual nature of potential vorticity mixing. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 133-147. PDF


2008

    Kossin, J. P., 2008: Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer? Geophys. Res. Lett., L23705, DOI:10.1029/2008GL036012. PDF file (236 Kb)

    Elsner, J. B., J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Jagger, 2008: The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature, 455, 92-95. PDF file (232 Kb). Link to abstract, paper, and supporting online material.

    Bromirski, P. D., and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Increasing hurricane wave power along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C07012, DOI:10.1029/2007JC004706. PDF file (1.3 Mb)

    Rozoff, C. M., W. H. Schubert, and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Some dynamical aspects of tropical cyclone concentric eyewalls. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 583-593. PDF file (501 Kb)

    Evan, A. T., A. K. Heidinger, R. Bennartz, V. Bennington, N. M. Mahowald, H. Corrada-Bravo, C. S. Velden, G. Myhre, and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Ocean temperature forcing by aerosols across the Atlantic tropical cyclone development region. Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst., 9, Q05V04, DOI:10.1029/2007GC001774. PDF file (215 Kb)

    Kunkel, K. E., P. D. Bromirski, H. E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A. V. Douglas, D. R. Easterling, K. A. Emanuel, P. Ya. Groisman, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. D. Komar, D. H. Levinson, R. L. Smith, 2008: Observed Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, S. J. Hassol, A. M. Waple, and W. L. Murray (eds.). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC. Link to the report.

    Knaff, J. A., T. A. Cram, A. B. Schumacher, J. P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Objective identification of annular hurricanes. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 17-28. PDF file (1.1 Mb)


2007

    Kossin, J. P., and D. J. Vimont, 2007: A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1767-1781. Abstract here. PDF article file here (3.1 Mb)

    Vimont, D. J., and J. P. Kossin, 2007: The Atlantic meridional mode and hurricane activity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07709, DOI:10.1029/2007GL029683. PDF file (2.3 Mb)

    Kossin, J. P., K. R. Knapp, D. J. Vimont, R. J. Murnane, and B. A. Harper, 2007: A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L04815, DOI:10.1029/2006GL028836. PDF file (377 Kb)

    Schubert W. S., C. M. Rozoff, J. L. Vigh, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin, 2007: On the distribution of subsidence in the hurricane eye. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 595-605. PDF file (672 Kb)

    Knapp, K. R., and J. P. Kossin, 2007: A new global tropical cyclone data set from ISCCP B1 geostationary satellite observations. J. of App. Remote Sensing, 1, 013505, DOI:10.1117/12.731296. PDF file (270 Kb)

    Kossin, J. P., J. A. Knaff, H. I. Berger, D. C. Herndon, T. A. Cram, C. S. Velden, R. J. Murnane, and J. D. Hawkins, 2007: Estimating hurricane wind structure in the absence of aircraft reconnaissance. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 89-101. PDF file (1.3 Mb)


2006

    Mueller, K. J., M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, J. P. Kossin, and T. H. VonderHaar, 2006: Objective estimation of tropical cyclone wind structure from infrared satellite data. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 990-1005. PDF file (1.8 Mb)

    Rozoff, C. M., W. H. Schubert, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin, 2006: Rapid filamentation zones in intense tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 325-340. PDF file (3 Mb)


2004

    Knievel, J. C., D. S. Nolan, and J. P. Kossin, 2004: An assessment of the balance in a mesoscale vortex within a midlatitude, continental mesoscale convective system. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1827-1832. PDF file (265 Kb)

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2004: Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 151-153. PDF file (1.5 Mb)

    Kossin, J. P., and C. S. Velden, 2004: A pronounced bias in tropical cyclone minimum sea-level pressure estimation based on the Dvorak technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 165-173. PDF file (257 Kb)


2003

    Knaff, J. A., J. P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2003: Annular Hurricanes. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 204-223. PDF file (1.1 Mb)

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2003: Diffusion versus advective rearrangement of a circular vortex sheet. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 586-589. PDF file (134 Kb)


2002

    Kossin, J. P., B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert, 2002: Vortical swirls in hurricane eye clouds. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 3144-3149. PDF file (1.1 Mb)

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Daily hurricane variability inferred from GOES infrared imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2260-2270. PDF file (731 Kb)


2001

    Prieto, R., J. P. Kossin, and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Symmetrization of lopsided vorticity monopoles and offset hurricane eyes. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2307-2328. PDF file (8.7 Mb)

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Mesovortices, polygonal flow patterns, and rapid pressure falls in hurricane-like vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2196-2209. PDF file (585 Kb)

    Kossin, J. P., and M. D. Eastin, 2001: Two distinct regimes in the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the hurricane eye and eyewall. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1079-1090. PDF file (451 Kb)


2000 and earlier

    Kossin, J. P., W. H. Schubert, and M. T. Montgomery, 2000: Unstable interactions between a hurricane's primary eyewall and a secondary ring of enhanced vorticity. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 3893-3917. PDF file (1.8 Mb)

    Schubert, W. H., M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Taft, T. A. Guinn, S. R. Fulton, J. P. Kossin, and J. P. Edwards, 1999: Polygonal eyewalls, asymmetric eye contraction, and potential vorticity mixing in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1197-1223. PDF file (617 Kb)

    Saridakis, Y. G., and J. P. Kossin, 1990: On exact convergence of the accelerated overrelaxation method when applied to consistently ordered systems. Int. Journal of Comp. Mathematics, 33, 251-261. PDF file (848 Kb)


Non-refereed publications

    Levinson, D. H., K. R. Knapp, M. C. Kruk, Diamond, H. J., and J. P. Kossin, 2010: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) project: Overview of methods and Indian Ocean statistics. Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Y. Charabi (Ed.), Earth and Environmental Science Series, Springer, 373 pp. PDF file (704 Kb)

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2008: An objective model for identifying secondary hurricane eyewalls. Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 1637-1638.

    Kossin, J. P., 2008: A scientific tempest. Book review, American Scientist, 96, 78-80. PDF file (116 Kb)

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Oscillations of the Tropical Storm Canopy. Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1295-1296.

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Oscillations of the Cirrus Canopy. Conference Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 361-362.

    Kossin, J. P., 2000: Barotropic instability and asymmetric mixing in hurricanes with primary and secondary eyewalls. Ph.D. Dissertation, Colorado State University. PDF file (19 Mb)

    Kossin, J. P., 1987: On exact convergence of the accelerated overrelaxation method when applied to consistently ordered systems. M.S. Thesis, Clarkson University.