James Kossin, PhD
Atmospheric Research Scientist

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
National Climatic Data Center, Asheville, NC

Duty Station:
NOAA Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI

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Publications

Submitted

    Kossin, J. P., 2014: Validating atmospheric reanalysis data using tropical cyclones as thermometers. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in review.

    Daloz, A.-S., S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, K. Emanuel, J. A. Jonas, D. Kim, T. LaRow, Y.-K. Lim, C. M. Patricola, M. Roberts, E. Scoccimarro, P. L. Vidale, M. Wehner, D. Shaevitz, H. Wang, and M. Zhao, 2014: Cluster analysis of explicitly and downscaled simulated North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. J. Climate, in review.


In press

    Schreck, C. J. III, K. R. Knapp, and J. P. Kossin, 2014: The impact of best track discrepancies on global tropical cyclone climatologies using IBTrACS. Mon. Wea. Rev., in press.

    Hennon, C. C., K. R. Knapp, C. J. Schreck III, S. E. Stevens, J. P. Kossin, P. W. Thorne, P. A. Hennon, M. J. Kruk, J. Rennie, J.-M. Gadea, M. Striegl, and I. Carley, 2014: Cyclone Center: Can citizen scientists improve tropical cyclone intensity records? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.


2014

    Kossin, J. P., K. A. Emanuel, and G. A. Vecchi, 2014: The poleward migration of the location of tropical cyclone maximum intensity. Nature, 509, 349-352. Link.

    Schreck, C. J. III, L. Shi, J. P. Kossin, and J. J. Bates, 2014: Identifying the MJO, equatorial waves, and their impacts using 32 years of HIRS upper-tropospheric water vapor. J. Climate, 26, 1418-1431.

    Banholzer, S., J. Kossin, and S. Donner, 2014: The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters. In: Preventing Disaster: Early Warning Systems for Climate Change. [A. Singh and Z. Zommers (Eds)]. Springer Netherlands, pp. 387, May 2014. Chapter available here. Complete book available here.

    Walsh, J., D. Wuebbles, K. Hayhoe, J. Kossin, K. Kunkel, G. Stephens, P. Thorne, R. Vose, M. Wehner, J. Willis, D. Anderson, S. Doney, R. Feely, P. Hennon, V. Kharin, T. Knutson, F. Landerer, T. Lenton, J. Kennedy, and R. Somerville, 2014: Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 19-67. doi:10.7930/J0KW5CXT. Link to 3rd National Climate Assessment, Chapter 2, "Changes in Hurricanes".

    Christensen, J. H., K. Krishna Kumar, E. Aldrian, S.-I. An, I. F. A. Cavalcanti, M. de Castro, W. Dong, P. Goswami, A. Hall, J. K. Kanyanga, A. Kitoh, J. Kossin, N.-C. Lau, J. Renwick, D. Stephenson, S.-P. Xie and T. Zhou, 2013: Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T. F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S. K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y.Xia, V. Bex, P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Link to AR5, Chapter 14.

    Peterson, T. C., T. R. Karl, J. P. Kossin, K. E. Kunkel, J. H. Lawrimore, J. R. McMahon, R. S. Vose, and X. Yin, 2013: Changes in weather and climate extremes: State of knowledge relevant to air and water quality. J. of the Air and Waste Management Association, 64, 184-197. Link to Open Access paper.


2013

    Kossin, J. P., T. L. Olander, and K. R. Knapp, 2013: Trend analysis with a new global record of tropical cyclone intensity. J. Climate, 26, 9960-9976. PDF.

    Zwiers, F. W., L. V. Alexander, G. C. Hegerl, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. Naveau, N. Nicholls, C. Schär, S. I. Seneviratne, and X. Zhang, 2013: Challenges in estimating and understanding recent changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme climate and weather events. In Climate Science for Serving Society: Research, Modeling and Prediction Priorities. Ghassem R. Asrar, and James W. Hurrell (Eds). Springer, Netherlands, pp. 339-389. PDF

    Kunkel, K. E., T. R. Karl, H. Brooks, J. Kossin, J. Lawrimore, D. Arndt, L. Bosart, D. Changnon, S. Cutter, N. Doesken, K. Emanuel, P. Ya. Groisman, R. W. Katz, T. Knutson, J. O'Brien, C. Paciorek, T. Peterson, K. Redmond, D. Robinson, J. Trapp, R. Vose, S. Weaver, M. Wehner, K. Wolter, and D. Wuebbles, 2013: Monitoring and understanding changes in extreme storm statistics: State of knowledge. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 499-514. PDF


2012

    Sitkowski, M., J. P. Kossin, C. M. Rozoff, and J. Knaff, 2012: Hurricane eyewall replacement cycles and the relict inner eyewall circulation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 4035-4045. PDF

    Williams, S. J., D. Atkinson, A. R. Byrd, H. Eicken, T. M. Hall, T. G. Huntington, Y. Kim, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, M. Lilly, J. J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, A. Parris, J. Ratcliff, T. Ravens, D. Resio, P. Ruggiero, E. R. Thieler, J. G. Titus, T. V. Wamsley, 2012: Physical climate forces. In: Coastal Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability: A Technical Input to the 2012 National Climate Assessment [Burkett, V.R. and Davidson, M.A. (eds.)]. Cooperative Report to the 2013 National Climate Assessment, pp. 150. PDF

    Evan, A. T., J. P. Kossin, C. E. Chung and V. Ramanathan, 2012: Reply to "How have tropical storms over the Arabian Sea intensified?", Nature, 489, E1-E3. PDF

    Kozar, M. E., M. E. Mann, S. J. Camargo, J. P. Kossin, and J. E. Evans, 2012: Stratified statistical models of North Atlantic basin-wide and regional tropical cyclone counts. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D18103, doi: 10.1029/2011JD017170. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., D. S. Nolan, J. P. Kossin, F. Zhang, and J. Fang, 2012: The roles of an expanding wind field and inertial stability in tropical cyclone secondary eyewall formation. J. Atmos. Sci., 69, 2621-2643. PDF

    Emanuel, K., F. Fondriest, and J. Kossin, 2012: Potential economic value of seasonal hurricane forecasts. Weather, Climate, and Society, 4, 110-117. PDF

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2012: Predicting hurricane intensity and structure changes associated with eyewall replacement cycles. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 484-488. PDF

    Seneviratne, S. I., N. Nicholls, D. Easterling, C. M. Goodess, S. Kanae, J. Kossin, Y. Luo, J. Marengo, K. McInnes, M. Rahimi, M. Reichstein, A. Sorteberg, C. Vera, and X. Zhang, 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C. B., V. Barros, T. F. Stocker, D. Qin, D. J. Dokken, K. L. Ebi, M. D. Mastrandrea, K. J. Mach, G. -K. Plattner, S. K. Allen, M. Tignor, and P. M. Midgley (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, and New York, NY, USA, pp. 109-230. Full report available here.

    Peduzzi, P., B. Chatenoux, H. Dao, A. De Bono, C. Herold, J. Kossin, F. Mouton, and O. Nordbeck, 2012: Tropical cyclones: Global trends in human exposure, vulnerability and risk. Nature Climate Change, 2, 289-294. PDF


2011

    Sitkowski, M., J. P. Kossin, and C. M. Rozoff, 2011: Intensity and structure changes during hurricane eyewall replacement cycles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3829-3847. PDF

    Evan, A., T., J. P. Kossin, C. Chung, and V. Ramanathan, 2011: Arabian Sea tropical cyclones intensified by emissions of black carbon and other aerosols. Nature, 479, 94-97. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., and J. P. Kossin, 2011: New probabilistic forecast models for the prediction of tropical cyclone rapid intensification. Wea. Forecasting, 26, 677-689. PDF

    Knapp, K. R., S. Ansari, C. L. Bain, M. A. Bourassa, M. J. Dickinson, C. Funk, C. N. Helms, C. C. Hennon, C. D. Holmes, G. J. Huffman, J. P. Kossin, H.-T. Lee, A. Loew, and G. Magnusdottir, 2011: Globally gridded satellite (GridSat) observations for climate studies. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92, 893-907. PDF


2010

    Kossin, J. P., S. J. Camargo, and M. Sitkowski, 2010: Climate modulation of North Atlantic hurricane tracks. J. Climate, 23, 3057-3076. PDF

    Knutson, T. R., J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, and M. Sugi, 2010: Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nature Geoscience, 3, doi:10.1038/ngeo779. PDF (Article), PDF (Supplemental Material)

    Levinson, D. H., K. R. Knapp, M. C. Kruk, Diamond, H. J., and J. P. Kossin, 2010: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) project: Overview of methods and Indian Ocean statistics. Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change, Y. Charabi (Ed.), Earth and Environmental Science Series, Springer, 373 pp. PDF


2009

    Kossin, J. P., and S. J. Camargo, 2009: Hurricane track variability and secular potential intensity trends. Climatic Change, 97, 329-337, DOI:10.1007/s10584-009-9748-2. PDF

    Hendricks, E. A., W. H. Schubert, R. K. Taft, H. Wang, and J. P. Kossin, 2009: Lifecycles of hurricane-like potential vorticity rings. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 705-722. PDF

    Evan, A. T., D. J. Vimont, A. K. Heidenger, J. P. Kossin, and R. Bennartz, 2009: The role of aerosols in the evolution of tropical North Atlantic Ocean temperature anomalies. Science, 324, 778-781. PDF. Link to abstract, paper, and supporting online material.

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2009: An objective model for identifying secondary eyewall formation in hurricanes. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 876-892. PDF

    Limaye, S. S., J. P. Kossin, C. Rozoff, G. Piccione, D. V. Titov, and W. J. Markiewicz, 2009: Vortex circulation on Venus: Dynamical similarities with terrestrial hurricanes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L04204, DOI:10.1029/2008GL036093. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., J. P. Kossin, W. H. Schubert, and P. J. Mulero, 2009: Internal control of hurricane intensity: The dual nature of potential vorticity mixing. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 133-147. PDF


2008

    Kossin, J. P., 2008: Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer? Geophys. Res. Lett., L23705, DOI:10.1029/2008GL036012. PDF

    Elsner, J. B., J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Jagger, 2008: The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones. Nature, 455, 92-95. PDF. Link to abstract, paper, and supporting online material.

    Bromirski, P. D., and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Increasing hurricane wave power along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts. J. Geophys. Res., 113, C07012, DOI:10.1029/2007JC004706. PDF

    Rozoff, C. M., W. H. Schubert, and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Some dynamical aspects of tropical cyclone concentric eyewalls. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 134, 583-593. PDF

    Evan, A. T., A. K. Heidinger, R. Bennartz, V. Bennington, N. M. Mahowald, H. Corrada-Bravo, C. S. Velden, G. Myhre, and J. P. Kossin, 2008: Ocean temperature forcing by aerosols across the Atlantic tropical cyclone development region. Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst., 9, Q05V04, DOI:10.1029/2007GC001774. PDF

    Kunkel, K. E., P. D. Bromirski, H. E. Brooks, T. Cavazos, A. V. Douglas, D. R. Easterling, K. A. Emanuel, P. Ya. Groisman, G. J. Holland, T. R. Knutson, J. P. Kossin, P. D. Komar, D. H. Levinson, R. L. Smith, 2008: Observed Changes in Weather and Climate Extremes in Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. T. R. Karl, G. A. Meehl, C. D. Miller, S. J. Hassol, A. M. Waple, and W. L. Murray (eds.). A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC. PDF

    Knaff, J. A., T. A. Cram, A. B. Schumacher, J. P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2008: Objective identification of annular hurricanes. Wea. Forecasting, 23, 17-28. PDF

    Kossin, J. P., and M. Sitkowski, 2008: An objective model for identifying secondary hurricane eyewalls. Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 1637-1638.

    Kossin, J. P., 2008: A scientific tempest. Book review, American Scientist, 96, 78-80. PDF


2007

    Kossin, J. P., and D. J. Vimont, 2007: A more general framework for understanding Atlantic hurricane variability and trends. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1767-1781. Abstract here. PDF article file here

    Vimont, D. J., and J. P. Kossin, 2007: The Atlantic meridional mode and hurricane activity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L07709, DOI:10.1029/2007GL029683. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., K. R. Knapp, D. J. Vimont, R. J. Murnane, and B. A. Harper, 2007: A globally consistent reanalysis of hurricane variability and trends. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L04815, DOI:10.1029/2006GL028836. PDF file

    Schubert W. S., C. M. Rozoff, J. L. Vigh, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin, 2007: On the distribution of subsidence in the hurricane eye. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 133, 595-605. PDF file

    Knapp, K. R., and J. P. Kossin, 2007: A new global tropical cyclone data set from ISCCP B1 geostationary satellite observations. J. of App. Remote Sensing, 1, 013505, DOI:10.1117/12.731296. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., J. A. Knaff, H. I. Berger, D. C. Herndon, T. A. Cram, C. S. Velden, R. J. Murnane, and J. D. Hawkins, 2007: Estimating hurricane wind structure in the absence of aircraft reconnaissance. Wea. Forecasting, 22, 89-101. PDF file


2006

    Mueller, K. J., M. DeMaria, J. A. Knaff, J. P. Kossin, and T. H. VonderHaar, 2006: Objective estimation of tropical cyclone wind structure from infrared satellite data. Wea. Forecasting, 21, 990-1005. PDF file

    Rozoff, C. M., W. H. Schubert, B. D. McNoldy, and J. P. Kossin, 2006: Rapid filamentation zones in intense tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci., 63, 325-340. PDF file


2004

    Knievel, J. C., D. S. Nolan, and J. P. Kossin, 2004: An assessment of the balance in a mesoscale vortex within a midlatitude, continental mesoscale convective system. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 1827-1832. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2004: Mesovortices in Hurricane Isabel (2003). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 85, 151-153. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and C. S. Velden, 2004: A pronounced bias in tropical cyclone minimum sea-level pressure estimation based on the Dvorak technique. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 165-173. PDF file


2003

    Knaff, J. A., J. P. Kossin, and M. DeMaria, 2003: Annular Hurricanes. Wea. Forecasting, 18, 204-223. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2003: Diffusion versus advective rearrangement of a circular vortex sheet. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 586-589. PDF file


2002

    Kossin, J. P., B. D. McNoldy, and W. H. Schubert, 2002: Vortical swirls in hurricane eye clouds. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 3144-3149. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Daily hurricane variability inferred from GOES infrared imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130, 2260-2270. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Oscillations of the Tropical Storm Canopy. Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1295-1296.

    Kossin, J. P., 2002: Oscillations of the Cirrus Canopy. Conference Papers of Note, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 361-362.


2001

    Prieto, R., J. P. Kossin, and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Symmetrization of lopsided vorticity monopoles and offset hurricane eyes. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 127, 2307-2328. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and W. H. Schubert, 2001: Mesovortices, polygonal flow patterns, and rapid pressure falls in hurricane-like vortices. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 2196-2209. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., and M. D. Eastin, 2001: Two distinct regimes in the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the hurricane eye and eyewall. J. Atmos. Sci., 58, 1079-1090. PDF file


2000 and earlier

    Kossin, J. P., W. H. Schubert, and M. T. Montgomery, 2000: Unstable interactions between a hurricane's primary eyewall and a secondary ring of enhanced vorticity. J. Atmos. Sci., 57, 3893-3917. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., 2000: Barotropic instability and asymmetric mixing in hurricanes with primary and secondary eyewalls. Ph.D. Dissertation, Colorado State University. PDF file

    Schubert, W. H., M. T. Montgomery, R. K. Taft, T. A. Guinn, S. R. Fulton, J. P. Kossin, and J. P. Edwards, 1999: Polygonal eyewalls, asymmetric eye contraction, and potential vorticity mixing in hurricanes. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 1197-1223. PDF file

    Saridakis, Y. G., and J. P. Kossin, 1990: On exact convergence of the accelerated overrelaxation method when applied to consistently ordered systems. Int. Journal of Comp. Mathematics, 33, 251-261. PDF file

    Kossin, J. P., 1987: On exact convergence of the accelerated overrelaxation method when applied to consistently ordered systems. M.S. Thesis, Clarkson University.