19 April 2003 (Oklahoma) Chasers: Eric Hendricks, Chris Rozoff, Wes Terwey, Kevin Tory One might officially denote today's chase a bust for my group; however, the lesson learned from the chase is that fast-moving storms can be frustrating. In essence, the features of this chase included finding, although unfortunately never getting ahead of, a landmark supercell. The tale begins on an early Saturday morning in Blackwell, OK. The night before we witnessed an incessant MCS, lulling us in our sleep with its beautiful fall. Our initial plan, remaining with our early morning view of the data, was to traverse southward to stay ahead of initiation along a dryline. Further north, models produced a surging cold front, and with ample dynamical lifting, we were skeptical that too much development might occur. Further south, south of the low center, we might enjoy more isolated development. In addition, a boundary existed from the previous night's convection and the instability might be more recovered there. Well, one thing was certain about this chase. The forecast was a complete and utter bust! There are numerous lessons to be learned, and I would divulge into monologues describing them, but due to space, and the short patience of a typical viewer, we will exclude the editorial. The problems: The dryline surged quickly to the east, much more than expected in models. There are various possibilities, but they are not limited to: shallow layer of moisture to our west, stronger low development, less convection than resolved by the model down south may have led to more vigorous boundary layer mixing, and dryline interactions with outflow boundary. I'm certainly uncertain to the real cause. But nevertheless, it was a busted forecast. Unfortunately, because we spent too much time at a truck stop in futile pursuit of a laptop internet connection, we walked outside of the stop (in Pauls Valley) to realize the dryline just passed. We were expecting the dryline to be further west, so that we could catch development. Being that the dryline was a surge, with moist air due north and an eastward trekking supercell, we decided against eastward pursuit into trees and mountains for the northern development. Fortunately, the models were incorrect about the cold front surge. Unfortunately, the storms were racing NEward at 45 to 50 kts. Not very easy to catch. Lessons: If you are brave enough to chase in such conditions, stay ahead of the development. We tried this strategy, but a fundamental precondition failed. Upon nearing Stillwater, with the dryline trying to keep up with us, we contemplated bubbling convection along the dryline, and the later discovered boundary. We were in a short period of depression, which was another FATAL mistake. Instead of racing on in pursuit of the development, which continually fought a gruesome fight with the racing dryline, we sat for a while with thumbs twiddling. Finally, we saw a storm directly to our north, northeast develop and maintain itself. I feel had we continued to seriously stay ahead of the development, we would have had the jackpot. We have learned a difficult lesson about pessimism. It is clearly irrational and more sadistic than the supposed reality we try to create in its practice. Nevertheless, we raced after the cell with the goal in mind of getting some position of viewing the potential low-level mesocyclone. The following picture is a good example of what it looks like to be behind that great storm. Picture by Kevin Tory (CSIRO-Australia) Tornado damage NE of Bartlesville, OK. It is not a good idea to drive through fresh tornado damage. We recognize this. It was on our route though, and we felt we could safely navigate past the damage path. In retrospect, it was selfish to take up space on the roadway when emergency crews might have needed to get through. Hmmm...honest mistake. Fortunately we got through quickly. Vortex tube in the RFD of the supercell. It had nice spin, but was short lived. Outflow boundaries with vigorous cloud activity, provide for nice example of coherent vortex production through baroclinic generated vorticity and vortex twisting and stretching. Tornado damage NE of Bartlesville, OK. Tornado damage NE of Bartlesville, OK. Tornado damage NE of Bartlesville, OK. In the RFD, soon after the tornado. In the RFD, soon after the tornado. We finally caught up with the meso but the sky was getting dark. This was near Coffeyville, KS. So we waved goodbye. 15 minutes later the weather radio announced a tornado warning on our meso and told us that the storm motion was no longer 45 kts, but 20 kts! The tornado was later confirmed on the SPC preliminary data page. As Wes Terwey so aptly put it, "This is poetic justice." Like to see the tornado we missed?