Risk Assessment in Watch #519 Area
Chance of Tornadoes of any strength: 50%
Significant Tornadoes (greater than 110 mph): 20%
More than ten wind events: 70%
More than one wind > 70mph: 30%
More than ten hail events: 20%
Hail over 1 inch: <05%
Probability of more than 6 severe events: 90%
Maximum Hail Size: 1.5
Maximum Surface Winds: 75 mph
Maximum Storm Cloud Top: 45000 feet
Average Storm Motion Towards the E at 40 mph
976
WWUS20 KWNS 022248
SEL9
SPC WW 022248
ARZ000-ILZ000-KYZ000-LAZ000-MOZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-TXZ000-030700-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 519
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
545 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 545
PM UNTIL 200 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF PADUCAH KENTUCKY.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 516...WW 517...WW 518...
DISCUSSION...SVR THREAT EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE WITH INCREASINGLY
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26035.
...EDWARDS
,Tornado Watch Number 519
hotzone= 3, 0xFFFF00,popup,Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518 expires: Thu Oct 02 09:00 PM CDT
Risk Assessment in Watch #518 Area
Chance of Tornadoes of any strength: 10%
Significant Tornadoes (greater than 110 mph): <02%
More than ten wind events: 30%
More than one wind > 70mph: 10%
More than ten hail events: 30%
Hail over 1 inch: 30%
Probability of more than 6 severe events: 70%
Maximum Hail Size: 2.0
Maximum Surface Winds: 70 mph
Maximum Storm Cloud Top: 55000 feet
Average Storm Motion Towards the E at 30 mph
774
WWUS20 KWNS 021855
SEL8
SPC WW 021855
OKZ000-TXZ000-030200-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 518
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
155 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 155 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF
PARIS TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 515...WW 516...WW 517...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...MEAD
,Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 518
hotzone= 3, 0x00FF00,popup,Flash Flood Watch expires: 2014-10-03 02:30:00
162
WGUS63 KILX 022013
FFAILX
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
313 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
ILZ040-047-049>052-030230-
/O.CON.KILX.FF.A.0004.000000T0000Z-141003T1100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SCHUYLER-CASS-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...
TAYLORVILLE
313 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR
* A PORTION OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING
AREAS...CASS...CHRISTIAN...MORGAN...SANGAMON...SCHUYLER AND
SCOTT COUNTIES.
* THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
* AS OF MID AFTERNOON...RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGED FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES FROM RUSHVILLE TO BEARDSTOWN SOUTH ALONG THE ILLINOIS
RIVER...AND ALSO EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF MORGAN AND
SANGAMON COUNTY INTO MOST OF CHRISTIAN COUNTY. ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS IN STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
* THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
LEAVES BEGINNING TO FALL FROM THE TREES...DRAINAGE MAY NOT BE AS
GOOD AS USUAL WITH STORM DRAINS BLOCKED BY LEAVES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
&&
$$
,Flash Flood Watch
hotzone= 3, 0xFEFE00,popup,Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 517 expires: Thu Oct 02 09:00 PM CDT
Risk Assessment in Watch #517 Area
Chance of Tornadoes of any strength: 10%
Significant Tornadoes (greater than 110 mph): <02%
More than ten wind events: 30%
More than one wind > 70mph: 10%
More than ten hail events: 30%
Hail over 1 inch: 10%
Probability of more than 6 severe events: 60%
Maximum Hail Size: 1.5
Maximum Surface Winds: 70 mph
Maximum Storm Cloud Top: 50000 feet
Average Storm Motion Towards the ENE at 35 mph
334
WWUS20 KWNS 021822
SEL7
SPC WW 021822
ILZ000-MOZ000-030200-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 517
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
125 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 125 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF
FARMINGTON MISSOURI TO 70 MILES EAST OF SALEM ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 515...WW 516...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25030.
...MEAD
,Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 517
hotzone= 3, 0x00FE00,popup,Flash Flood Watch expires: 2014-10-03 05:00:00
999
WGUS63 KLSX 022010
FFALSX
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
310 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
MOZ018-019-026-027-034-035-041-042-047>050-030500-
/O.EXT.KLSX.FF.A.0005.000000T0000Z-141003T0500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-BOONE MO-
AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HANNIBAL...COLUMBIA...MEXICO...
JEFFERSON CITY
310 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
* PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...IN CENTRAL MISSOURI...
AUDRAIN MO...BOONE MO...CALLAWAY MO...COLE MO...MONITEAU MO
AND OSAGE MO. IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...KNOX MO...LEWIS MO...
MARION MO...MONROE MO...RALLS MO AND SHELBY MO.
* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT
* HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE AREA WITH
ADDITIONAL WAVES OF HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
* HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING OR POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS...AND ULTIMATELY DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING ON
SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ON LARGER
STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT
IMMINENT IN THE WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE IN
FLOOD PRONE AREAS. STAY INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION
IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED.
&&
$$
,Flash Flood Watch