WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
   TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 983 NM EAST OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
REVEALS FLARING OVERSHOOTING TOPS IN A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST 
(CDO) THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FROM A METOP-A 
ASCAT PASS SHOWING A CLEAR LLCC WITH 45-50 KNOT WIND BARBS SITUATED 
TO THE WEST. MUTLI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 
(90 KNOTS) ARE WELL ABOVE A 291210Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 59 KNOTS AND A 
290845Z SMAP PASS OF 50 KNOTS, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 
PARTIALLY OFFSETTING FAIR RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE. TY 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W WILL CONTINUE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE. 
THROUGH LANDFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN 
MARGINAL AND TY 29W WILL INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 72. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY AIDS 
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE MAINTAINS STRONG 
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK 
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND 
SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES PRIOR TO TAU 96. TY 
29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE 
INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS TY 29W PASSES OVER THE PHILIPPINES DUE TO 
THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE RUGGED TERRAIN. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE 
REMAINS IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST 
AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
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