WDPN31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 464 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THE 
LLCC IN A 011213Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE 
CONVECTION AND NEAR RADIAL OUTFLOW SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS 
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (RJTD) AND PGTW (T4.5) AND A 
011031Z CIMS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO 
CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), IMPROVING 
OUTFLOW AND FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. TY KAMMURI IS 
TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) WHICH IS LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THROUGH TAU 24, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY 
DUE TO LOW VWS AND SUPPORTIVE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. TY 29W WILL 
THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WHERE IT WILL 
STEADILY DECREASE IN INTENSITY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. AN 
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL TEMPORARILY ERODE 
THE STR, CAUSING TY 29W TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER, IN THE INTENSITY 
FORECAST DUE TO A HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN THE MODEL INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE. 
   C. AFTER TAU 72, WINDS FROM A STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT 
WILL BEGIN TO DRIVE 29W WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD. AFTER TAU 96 THIS 
NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW WILL THEN DRIVE TY 29W SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO 
SOUTHWARD AND LEAD TO A RAPID DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY DUE TO 
INCREASING VWS. AS A RESULT, TY 29W WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER 
WATER STARTING AT TAU 96 AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. THERE 
IS A WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF 
TY 29W WITH THE SURGE EVENT, THUS LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS 
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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