WDPN31 PGTW 021500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY KAMMURI HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS 
(70-115 KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING 
SYSTEM WITH A LARGE 48-NM OBLONG EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT 
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. TY 29W IS ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AND 
IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST NORTH OF SAMAR ISLAND. SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS ARE SPARSE IN THIS AREA BUT VIRAC (98446), LOCATED 47 
NM NORTHWEST, REPORTED A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS TO 51 KNOTS IN 
THEIR 02/13Z OBSERVATION WITH SLP NEAR 989.6 MB. THE CURRENT 
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE 
OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) AND A 020908Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 120 
KNOTS. TY KAMMURI IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE 
NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. TY 29W SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER THE 
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS, HOWEVER, 
THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN TYPHOON STRENGTH DUE TO ITS TRACK OVER 
THE WARM WATERS OF THE INLAND SEAS. AFTER TAU 48, TY 29W WILL 
ENCOUNTER STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN 
RAPIDLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SLOW FORWARD MOTION 
AND TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHT AGREEMENT 
THROUGH TAU 72 WITH AN 85 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72 ALTHOUGH 
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE 
SOUTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE SYSTEM HITS THE NORTHEAST SURGE.      
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT ACCELERATES 
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE FLOW, AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 
120. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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