WDPN31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 29W (KAMMURI) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
   TYPHOON (TY) 29W (KAMMURI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL DENSE 
OVERCAST. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, FOUND BY 
EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 031005Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A 
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS FALLS BETWEEN 
RJTD AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) 
AND T5.0 (90 KTS), RESPECTIVELY.THE ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT 
UNFAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), FAIR 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. 
TY 29W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 29W SHOULD GRADUALLY TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO 
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24 AS IT CONTINUES FOLLOWING THE PERIPHERY 
OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 24, TY 29W WILL BECOME CAUGHT IN A STRONG, 
COLD NORTHEASTERLY SURGE FLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN EQUATORWARD. 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TY 
29W THROUGH TAU 72 WITH THE SURGE FLOW CAUSING MORE RAPID WEAKENING 
AFTER TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 
TAU 48 WHEN DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED CAUSE SPREAD TO 
INCREASE. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IS FAIR FOR THIS PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST.
   C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 29W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EQUATORWARD AND 
DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR THIS PORTION OF THE 
FORECAST AS MANY AIDS LOSE THE CIRCULATION AND THE REMAINING AIDS 
HAVE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED.//
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