WTIO31 PGTW 172100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (AMPHAN) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 86.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 86.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.8N 86.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.1N 87.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.8N 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 19.0N 88.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 23.8N 89.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 25.3N 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 86.6E. 17MAY20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (AMPHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 609 NM SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 10 NM RAGGED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ALIGNS WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS). ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (31-32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE SUPPORT THE SIGNIFICANT RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT HAS OCCURRED OVER THE PAST TWELVE HOURS (50 KT INTENSITY ESTIMATE INCREASE). TC 01B IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SOUTH-NORTH ORIENTED NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). THE CYCLONE WILL FOLLOW THE NER POLEWARD AND MAKE LANDFALL AROUND TAU 60. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS SHOULD CAUSE SOME WEAKENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE INTENSITY SHOULD FALL CONSIDERABLY AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// NNNN