CIMSS Severe Weather Nearcasting Model Predicts Southern Missouri Storms
CIMSS runs a prediction model that "near-casts" (out to 9 hours) the potential for the development of severe weather. The model is initialized hourly using retrieved profiles of equivalent potential temperature from the GOES-13 sounder, which are projected forward in time along trajectories and then monitored for vertical destabilization.
The 01 UTC run on 29 February 2012 isolated an area of strong destabilization near Branson, Missouri, at 07 UTC (1:00 AM CST), six hours in advance of the storms that spawned multiple tornadoes. Real-time near-casting products can be viewed online.
6-hour near-cast of equivalent potential temperature lapse rate valid 07 UTC, 29 February 2012. Larger negative values (purple or red) indicated the atmosphere becoming strongly unstable.
