{"id":12485,"date":"2020-01-23T19:27:20","date_gmt":"2020-01-23T19:27:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/?p=12485"},"modified":"2020-01-23T20:01:13","modified_gmt":"2020-01-23T20:01:13","slug":"new-weather-normals-show-how-madisons-climate-has-changed-over-40-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/articles\/12485","title":{"rendered":"New weather \u2018normals\u2019 show how Madison\u2019s climate has changed over 40 years"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The National Weather Service\u2019s bulletins often mention when extreme weather deviates from normal. But normal is changing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This time next year, the weather service\u2019s 30-year average will roll over from patterns representing 1981 to 2010 to patterns established between 1991 and 2020. That shift means that an extra 2.5 inches of precipitation, less early winter snowfall, and warmer summer nights will all become normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The weather service issues these updates every decade to help the nation\u2019s forecasters accurately communicate about their regions. At the same time, adjusting what counts as normal might obscure how global warming has changed climates around the country since the Industrial Revolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cHopefully there will be some press around 2021 that the climate normals are changing, and just because we\u2019ve re-established the baseline for what is normal doesn\u2019t negate what came before,\u201d says Jordan Gerth, a weather scientist who recently left the University of Wisconsin\u2013Madison to join the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in Washington, D.C. He still holds an honorary fellowship on campus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To assist his own research, Gerth analyzed the changes to Madison\u2019s average climate that will be official next year. While the 2020 data aren\u2019t yet included, Gerth\u2019s analysis shows Madison has become warmer and wetter over the last 40 years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Monthly-precipitation.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Monthly-precipitation-500x346.jpg\" alt=\"Graphic: Bar graph showing monthly precipitation totals rising from 1981-90 to 2011-20\" class=\"wp-image-66932\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Since 2011, Madison has seen more precipitation on average than it did in the 1980s. In the last decade, most months have seen more precipitation than they used to, especially during the spring and summer.&nbsp;<strong>GRAPH: ERIC HAMILTON \/ DATA: JORDAN GERTH<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Compared to the decade from 1981 to 1990, Madison has experienced an average of eight additional inches of precipitation a year since 2011. Four of Wisconsin\u2019s five wettest years have taken place in the last decade, and 2019 was the soggiest year for both Wisconsin and&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.noaa.gov\/news\/october-2019-was-coolest-in-10-years-as-us-continued-its-wettest-year-to-date\">the entire contiguous U.S.<\/a>&nbsp;since record keeping began in 1895. This new normal was on stark display in 2018, when Dane County was&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.jsonline.com\/story\/news\/2018\/08\/21\/widespread-flooding-reported-madison-after-much-13-inches-rain-fell-area\/1049843002\/\">deluged with record-breaking rainfall<\/a>&nbsp;that caused&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/apnews.com\/15a2ca91bcb94840bceb192365cf01a1\/Wisconsin-flooding-damage-estimated-to-be-$209-million\">hundreds of millions of dollars<\/a>&nbsp;in damage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Monthly-snowfall-chart-cropped.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Monthly-snowfall-chart-cropped-500x323.jpg\" alt=\"Graphic: Bar graph showing average monthly snowfall increasing from 1981-90 to 2011-20\" class=\"wp-image-66933\"\/><\/a><figcaption>The pattern of snowfall in Madison has changed. While November and December average less snowfall since 2011 than they did in the 1980s, that shortage is more than made up for with heavier snows in January and February. The upshot is that Madison received about 2 additional inches of snow a year in the last decade than it did 30 to 40 years ago.&nbsp;<strong>GRAPH: ERIC HAMILTON \/ DATA: JORDAN GERTH<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Warmer temperatures are also increasingly normal. Overnight low temperatures have risen more than daily high temperatures, especially from May through December. On average, December has been six degrees warmer since 2011 than it was in the 1980s. The new 30-year average for the month will add about two degrees to the previous average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Madison\u2019s expanding urban footprint likely accounts for some of that extra warmth. Dane County has added 200,000 residents since 1980, and city centers, with&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/study-suggests-trees-are-crucial-to-the-future-of-our-cities\/\">fewer trees<\/a>&nbsp;and more&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/heat-waves-hit-heat-islands-hardest\/\">heat-amplifying asphalt and concrete<\/a>, tend to be warmer than rural areas. Increased greenhouse gas accumulation also contributes to the warming trend, which has consequences both for energy costs and agriculture.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDuring this decade, we\u2019ve seen delayed frosts and freezes throughout the region. That will have an impact on growing seasons,\u201d and many farmers now consider September the fourth month of summer, says Gerth. Since 1971, Madison has gained more than 30 frost-free days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The newly balmy Novembers and Decembers are accompanied by less snowfall. But that shortage is more than made up for with heavier snows in January and February. The upshot is that an average of two additional inches of snow a year has fallen on Madison since 2011 compared to the 1980s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Mendota_ice_dawn19_2501.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/Mendota_ice_dawn19_2501-1024x681.jpg\" alt=\"Photo: Broken up ice on open Lake Mendota near shoreline\" class=\"wp-image-66935\"\/><\/a><figcaption>Fractured and refrozen sheets of ice covering Lake Mendota along the Picnic Point shoreline on Dec. 10, 2019.&nbsp;<strong>PHOTO:&nbsp;<a href=\"mailto:photos@uc.wisc.edu\">JEFF MILLER<\/a><\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>Madison has another winter climate record: its lakes. Since 1855, UW\u2013Madison and&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aos.wisc.edu\/~sco\/\">Wisconsin State Climatology Office<\/a>&nbsp;researchers have dutifully recorded when lakes Mendota and Monona freeze and thaw each year. The record now includes Lake Wingra.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cWe want to continue tracking lake ice as long as we can, because while it\u2019s not a temperature record, it\u2019s an indication of how the climate is changing,\u201d says Ed Hopkins, who keeps a close eye on the lakes as assistant state climatologist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hopkins travels a route around the city during the winter to visually inspect all three lakes from multiple vantage points. Lakes Monona and Wingra are considered closed when they are at least half covered with ice for a full day or more. Lake Mendota\u2019s size and irregular shoreline make it difficult to see across the entire surface. So,&nbsp;<a href=\"http:\/\/www.aos.wisc.edu\/~sco\/lakes\/msn-lakes_instruc.html\">according to tradition<\/a>, the lake is closed, or considered frozen, when a boat can no longer be rowed from Picnic Point to Maple Bluff.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The average duration of ice on Lake Mendota has shrunk by about three weeks since record keeping began. The lake froze for the season on Jan. 12, 2020. The latest the lake has ever closed was on Jan. 30, 1932.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\"><figure class=\"aligncenter\"><a href=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/mendota-dur.jpg\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/news.wisc.edu\/content\/uploads\/2020\/01\/mendota-dur.jpg\" alt=\"Graphic: Chart showing average duration of freeze of Lake Mendota since 1852.\" class=\"wp-image-66934\"\/><\/a><figcaption>The annual duration and five-year moving averages of ice on Lake Mendota since 1852. The average duration of ice on the lake has dropped about three weeks since the mid-19th century.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cNowadays, with higher temperatures, we have to go back because sometimes the lakes break up after only a few days,\u201d says Hopkins. This occurred for both lakes Monona and Wingra in December 2019.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This winter is the first that Lake Wingra, the shallowest of the three lakes, has closed, opened and then closed again. This mercurial behavior may become, well, normal.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But as 2021 rolls around, Gerth says, keep in mind: Normal isn\u2019t what it used to be.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The National Weather Service\u2019s bulletins often mention when extreme weather deviates from normal. But normal is changing. This time next year, the weather service\u2019s 30-year average will roll over from patterns representing 1981 to 2010 to patterns established between 1991 and 2020. That shift means that an extra 2.5 inches of precipitation, less early winter [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":12494,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-12485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured-stories","tag-cimss"],"acf":{"include_for_media_link":"no","guest_author":[{"first_name":"Eric","last_name":"Hamilton","link":"mailto:eshamilton@wisc.edu"}],"sub_title":"","ssec_home_page_carousel_image":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/19\/2020\/01\/Mendota_Ice_Credit_Jeff_Miller.jpg","short_title":"New weather \u2018normals\u2019 show how Madison\u2019s climate has changed over 40 years"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12485","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/17"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=12485"}],"version-history":[{"count":8,"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12485\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12495,"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12485\/revisions\/12495"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/12494"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=12485"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=12485"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.ssec.wisc.edu\/news\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=12485"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}