Publications
The following list contains my formal publications. I have authored or co-authored 119 peer-reviewed journal articles and two book chapters covering numerous topics such as drought monitoring, wildland fires, ensemble data assimilation, validation of numerical model simulation output using satellite observations, synthetic satellite dataset generation, and subtropical cyclogenesis.
Please click here for a list of publications sorted by subject matter.
2026
Kucheruk, L. L., P. C. Spennemann, J. A. Rivera, G. Naumann, M. Peretti, and J. A. Otkin, 2026: How sensitive are flash drought climatologies to index and reanalysis selection? Int. J. Climatol., e70327. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70327.
Ma, F., X. Yuan, and J. A. Otkin, 2026: Hot drought increased the occurrence probability of the 2025 Los Angeles destructive wildfires. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 43, 723-735.
In press:
Conditionally accepted:
Henderson, D. S., C. Pettersen, J. A. Otkin, S. W. Nesbitt, and M. S. Kulie, 2026: Environmental transitions driving enhanced lake-effect snow events. Condtionally accepted for publication in Wea. Forecasting.
Haigh, T., S. Church, Y. Zhong, and J. A. Otkin, 2026: Drought monitoring for ecological land management: Role of decision context in understanding needs. Conditionally accepted for publication in Wea. Climate Soc..
Zhong, Y., J. A. Otkin, T. Gerken, P. Stoy, and D. Henderson, 2026: Object-based analysis of droughts and flash droughts as a continuum. Conditionally accepted for publication in Water. Resour. Res.
Submitted:
Zhao, Z., Y. Zhou, W. Ju, J. M. Chen, J. A. Otkin, J. Xiao, and X. Li, 2026: Timing instead of onset rate of rapid-onset drought induced larger loss of gross primary productivity worldwide. Submitted to Sci. Adv.
Ranjbar, S., D. Losos, S. Hoffman, Y. Zhong, J. A. Otkin, A. R. Desai, M. Anderson, C. R. Hain, and P. C. Stoy, 2026: Near real-time estimation of daytime and nighttime evapotranspiration using GOES-R observations and machine earning models. Submitted to Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.
Rhodes, E.S., S.P. Church, J. McEvoy, B. Radulski, T. Haigh, J.A. Otkin, W. Kleindl, L. Yung, and J. Ulrich-Schad, 2026: The role of conversation: Practitioner preferences for sharing ecological drought knowledge. Submitted to Society and Natural Resources.
Rhodes, E.S., S.P. Church, J. McEvoy, B. Radulski, T. Haigh, J.A. Otkin, W. Kleindl, and L. Yung., 2026: Indicators and impacts of ecological drought: Advancing a social-ecological systems approach. Submitted to Journal of Environmental Planning andManagement
Qiao, C., W. Wang, P. Zhu, J. A. Otkin, Z.-L. Yang, and A. AghaKouchak, 2026: Flash droughts amplify maize yield losses through intensified atmospheric aridity. Submitted to Nature Communications.
Rhodes, E.S., S.P. Church, J. McEvoy, B. Radulski, T. Haigh, J.A. Otkin, W. Kleindl, L. Yung, and J. Ulrich-Schad., 2026: Navigating uncertainty: Toward improved ecological drought monitoring. To be submitted to Socio-Ecological Practice Research.
Huang, J., P. Ciais, J. Penuelas, J. A. Otkin, X. Lian, P. Stoy, S. Wolf, J. Green, H. Xia, and Z. Fu, 2026: Hidden carbon uptake across flash droughts driven by a water–thermal trade-off. Submitted to Science.
Wei, J., S. Wang, W. Wang, J. A. Otkin, D. G. Miralles, and A. AghaKouchak, 2026: Anthropogenic aerosol reduction accelerates the onset of flash droughts in a changing climate. Submitted to Nature Geoscience.
Wang, Y., X. Yuan, P. Wu, and J. A. Otkin, 2026: Vegetation amplified the role of land-atmosphere coupling in global drought transition. Submitted to Nature Climate Change.
In Preparation:
2025
Rudlosky, S. D., J. Patton, D. Zhang, T. Noiplab, R. Jin, L. Heuscher-Stewart, and J. A. Otkin, 2025: Characterizing the relation between lightning and wildfires in the western United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 64, 2021–2036, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-25-0032.1.
Losos, D., S. Ranjbar, S. Hoffman, R. Abernathey, A. R. Desai, J. A. Otkin, H. Zhang, Y. Ryu, and P. C. Stoy, 2025: Rapid changes in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake captured in near-real time from a geostationary satellite: the ALIVE framework. Rem. Sens. Environ. 324, 114759, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.114759.
Lisonbee, J., B. Parker, E. Fleishman, T. Ford, R. K. Bocinsky, G. Follingstad, A. G. Frazier, Z. H. Hoylman, A. R. Hudson, J. W. Nielsen-Gammon, N. A. Umphlett, E. Wickham, A. Bamzai-Dodson, R. Fontenot, B. Fuchs, J. Hammond, J. E. Herrick, M. Hobbins, A. Hoell, J. Jones, E. Lane, Z. Leasor, Y. Liu, J. A. Otkin, A. Sheffield, D. Todey, and R. Pulwarty, 2025: Prioritization of research on drought assessment in a changing climate. Earth’s Future, 13, e2024EF005276, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF005276.
2024
Otkin, J. A., Y. Zhong, T. W. Ford, M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, A. Hoell, M. Svoboda, and H. Wang, 2024: Multivariate evaluation of flash drought across the United States. Water Resour. Res., 60, e2024WR037333. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024WR037333
Başakın, E. E., P. C. Stoy, M. C. Demirel, M. Ozdogan, and J. A. Otkin, 2024: Improved agricultural drought index using a high-resolution distributed hydrological model and explainable AI techniques. Rem. Sensing., 16, 3799. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16203799
Osman, M., B. Zaitchik, J. Otkin, and M. Anderson, 2024: A global flash drought inventory based on soil moisture volatility. Sci. Data, 11, 965. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03809-9
Lorenz, D. J., J. A. Otkin, B. F. Zaitchik, C. Hain, T. Holmes, and M. C. Anderson, 2024: Improving subseasonal soil moisture and evaporative stress index forecasts through machine learning: The role of initial land state versus dynamical model output. J. Hydrometeor., 25, 1147-1163. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-23-0074.1
Corak, N. K., J. A. Otkin, T. W. Ford, and L. E. Lowman, 2024: Unraveling phenological responses to extreme drought and implications on the water and carbon budgets. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 28, 1827–1851, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-1827-2024.
Anderson, M. C., W. P. Kustas, J. M. Norman; G. T. Diak, C. R. Hain, F. Gao, Y. Yang, K. R. Knipper, J. Xue, Y. Yang, W. T. Crow, T. R. H. Holmes, H. Nieto, R. Guzinski, J. A. Otkin, J. R. Mecikalski, C. Cammalleri, A. T. Torres-Ruan, X. Zhan, L. Fang, P. D. Colaizzi, and N. Agam, 2024: A brief history of the thermal IR-based Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB) model – diagnosing water and energy fluxes from plant to global scales. Agr. Forest Meteorol., 350, 109951, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109951.
Woloszyn, M., S. Reeves, M. Skumanich, E. Hasenbeck, A. Lang, J. Lisonbee, R.D. Leeper, M. Muth, E. Ossowski, J. A. Otkin, H. Wang, 2024. 2nd National Flash Drought Workshop Report: Building on Progress and Looking Forward. NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System.
Christian, J., M. Hobbins, A. Hoell, J. A. Otkin, T. Ford, A. Cravens, K. Powlen, H. Wang, and V. Mishra, 2024: Flash drought: A state of the science review. WIREs Water, e1714. https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1714
Griffin, S. M., and J. A. Otkin, 2024: Validating HRRR simulated cloud properties for different weather phenomena using satellite and radar observations. Wea. Forecasting, 39, 97–120, https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0109.1.
2023
Ford, T. W., J. A. Otkin, S. M. Quiring, J. Lisonbee, M. Woloszyn, J. Wang, and Y. Zhong, 2023: Flash drought indicator intercomparison in the United States. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 62, 1713–1730, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-23-0081.1.
Pierce, R. B, M. Harkey, A. Lenzen, L. Cronce, J. A. Otkin, J. L. Case, D. S. Henderson, Z. Adelman, T. Nergui, and C. Hain, 2023: High-resolution air quality simulations of ozone exceedance events during the Lake Michigan Ozone Study. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 9613-9635, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9613-2023.
Otkin, J. A., L. Cronce, J. Case, R. Pierce, M. Harkey, A. Lenzen, D. Henderson, Z. Adelman, T. Nergui, and C. R. Hain, 2023: Evaluation of high-resolution model simulations in the Lake Michigan region. Atmos. Chem. Phys, 23, 7935–7954, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-7935-2023.
Nguyen, H., M. C. Wheeler, J. A. Otkin, T. Nguyen-Huy, and T. Cowan, 2023: Climatology and composite evolution of flash drought over Australia and its vegetation impacts. J. Hydrometeor., 24, 1087-1101.
Christian, J. I., E. R. Martin, J. B. Basara, J. C. Furtado, J. A. Otkin, L. E. Lowman, E. D. Hunt, V. Mishra, and X. Xiao, 2023: Global projections of flash drought in a warming climate. Commun. Earth Environ., 4, 165. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00826-1.
Yuan, X., Y. Wang, P. Ji, J. Sheffield, and J. A. Otkin, 2023: A global transition to flash droughts under climate change. Science, 380, 187-191. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn6301.
Edris, S., J. B. Basara, J. I. Christian, E. D. Hunt, J. A. Otkin, S. T. Salesky, and B. G. Illston, 2023: Decomposing the critical components of flash drought using the standardized evaporative stress ratio. Agr. Forest Meteorol., 330, 109288, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109288.
2022
Otkin, J. A., M. Woloszyn, H. Wang, M. Svoboda, M. Skumanich, R. Pulwarty, J. Lisonbee, A. Hoell, M. Hobbins, T. Haigh, and A. Cravens, 2022: Getting ahead of flash drought: From early warning to early action. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc, 103, E2188-E2202. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0288.1.
Ahmad, S. K., S. V. Kumar, T. M. Lahmers, S. Wang, P.-W. Liu, M. L. Wrzesien, R. Bindlish, A. Getirana, K. A. Locke, T. R. Holmes, and J. A. Otkin, 2022: Flash drought onset and development mechanisms captured with soil moisture and vegetation data assimilation. Water Resour. Res., 58, e2022WR032894. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR032894.
Lisonbee, J., J. Ribbe, J. A. Otkin, and C. Pudmenzky 2022: Wet season rainfall onset and flash drought: The case of the northern Australian wet season. Int. J. Climatol, 42, 6499– 6514. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7609.
Henderson, D. S., J. A. Otkin, and J. R. Mecikalski, 2022: Examining the role of the land surface on convection using high-resolution model forecasts over the southeastern United States. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 127, e2022JD036563. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036563.
Haigh, T., J. A. Otkin, M. Woloszyn, D. Todey, and C. Felkley, 2022: Meeting the climate information needs of Midwest perennial specialty crop production. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 61, 839-855. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0105.1.
Hoover, B. T., J. A. Otkin, E. M. Petrescu, and E. Niebuhr, 2022: A high-resolution quantitative precipitation estimate over Alaska through kriging-based merging of rain gauges and short-range regional precipitation forecasts. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 39, 739-753.
Zhang, M. X. Yuan, J. A. Otkin, and P. Ji, 2022: Climate warming outweighs vegetation greening in intensifying flash droughts over China. Environ. Res. Lett., 17, 054041, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac69fb.
Li, X., J. R. Mecikalski, J. A. Otkin, D. Henderson, and J. Srikishen, 2022: A polarimetric radar operator and application for convective storm simulation. Atmosphere, 13, 645, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050645.
Khan, A. M., P. C. Stoy, J. Joiner, D. Baldocchi, J. Verfaillie, M. Chen, and J. A. Otkin, 2022: The diurnal dynamics of gross primary productivity (GPP) using observations from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites-R Series (GOES-R) at an oak savanna ecosystem. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci., 127, e2021JG006701. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006701
Osman, M., B. Zaitchik, H. Badr, J. A. Otkin, Y. Zhong, D. Lorenz, M. C. Anderson, T. F. Keenan, D. L. Miller, C. Hain, and T. Holmes, 2022: Diagnostic classification of flash drought events reveals distinct classes of forcings and impacts. J. Hydrometeor., 23, 275-289.
Chandramouli, K., X. Wang, A. Johnson, and J. A. Otkin, 2022: Online nonlinear bias correction in ensemble Kalman filter to assimilate GOES-R all-sky radiances for the analysis and prediction of rapidly developing supercells. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 14, e2021MS002711. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002711.
Griffin, S. M., and J. A. Otkin, 2022: Evaluating the impact of planetary boundary layer, land surface model, and microphysics parameterization schemes on simulated GOES-16 water vapor brightness temperatures. Atmosphere, 13, 366, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13030366.
Li, J., A. J. Geer, K. Okamoto, J. A. Otkin, Z. Liu, W. Han, and P. Wang, 2022: Satellite all-sky infrared radiance assimilation: Recent progress and future perspectives. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 9−21, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1088-9.
2021
Lorenz, D. J., J. A. Otkin, B. Zaitchik, M. C. Anderson, and C. R. Hain, 2021: Predicting rapid changes in evaporative stress index (ESI) and soil moisture anomalies over the continental United States. J. Hydrometeor., 22, 3017-3036.
Christian, J. I., J. B. Basara, E. D. Hunt, J. A. Otkin, J. C. Furtado, V. Mishra, X. Xiao, and R. M. Randall, 2021: Global distribution, trends, and drivers of flash drought occurrence. Nat. Commun., 12, 6330, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-26692-z.
Hoell, A., T. W. Ford, M. Woloszyn, J. A. Otkin, and J. Eischeid, 2021: Characteristics and predictability of Midwestern United States drought. J. Hydrometeor, 22, 3087-3105.
Hunt, E. D., F. Femia, C. Werrell, J. Christian, J. Basara, J. A. Otkin, R. Randall, T. White, C. Hain, M. C. Anderson, and K. McGauhgey, 2021: Agricultural and food security impacts from the 2010 Russia flash drought. Weather Clim. Extremes, 34, 100383, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100383.
Woloszyn, M., M. Skumanich, J. Lisonbee, V. Deheza, M. Hobbins, A. Hoell, J. A. Otkin, M. Svoboda, and H. Wang, 2021: Flash drought: Current understanding and future priorities. Report of the 2020 NIDIS Flash Drought Virtual Workshop, NOAA National Integrated Drought Information System.
Griffin, S. M., J. A. Otkin, S. E. Nebuda, T. L. Jensen, P. Skinner, E. Gilleland, T. A. Supinie, and M. Xue, 2021: Evaluating the impact of planetary boundary layer, land surface model, and microphysics parameterization schemes on upper-level cloud objects in simulated GOES-16 brightness temperatures. J. Geophys. Res. – Atmos, 126, e2021JD034709. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034709.
Khan, A., P. C. Stoy, J. T. Douglas, M. C. Anderson, G. Diak, J. A. Otkin, E. M. Rehbein, and J. McCorkel, 2021: Reviews and syntheses: Ongoing and emerging opportunities to improve environmental science using geostationary satellite observations. Biogeosciences, 18, 4117-4141, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-4117-2021.
Otkin, J. A., Y. Zhong, E. D. Hunt, J. I. Christian, J. B. Basara, H. Nguyen, M. C. Wheeler, T. W. Ford, A. Hoell, M. Svoboda, and M. C. Anderson, 2021: Development of a flash drought intensity index. Atmosphere, 12, 741, http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060741.
Yang, Y., M. C. Anderson, F. Gao, Y. Yang, L. Sun, W. Dulaney, C. Hain, J. A. Otkin, J. Prueger, T. Meyers, and C. Bernacchi, 2021: Remote sensing of a field-scale ET-based stress indicator for crop yield forecasting: An application across the U.S. Corn Belt. Rem. Sens. Env., 257, 112337.
Thompson, G., J. Berner, M. Frediani, J. A. Otkin, and S. M. Griffin, 2021: A stochastic parameter perturbation method to represent uncertainty in a microphysics scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 149, 1481-1497.
Nguyen, H., M. C. Wheeler, H. H. Hendon, E.-P. Lim, and J. A. Otkin, 2021: The 2019 flash droughts in subtropical eastern Australia and their association with large-scale climate drivers. Weather Clim. Extremes, 32, 100321, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2021.100321.
Henderson, D. S., J. A. Otkin, and J. R. Mecikalski, 2021: Evaluating convective initiation in high-resolution numerical weather prediction models using GOES-16 infrared brightness temperatures. Mon. Wea. Rev, 149, 1153-1172.
Osman, M., B. F. Zaitchik, H. S. Badr, J. Christian, T. Tadesse, J. A. Otkin, and M. C. Anderson, 2021: Flash droughts over the contiguous United States: Sensitivity of inventories and trends to quantitative definitions. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 565–581.
Otkin, J. A., and R. E. Potthast, 2021: Nonlinear conditional bias estimation for data assimilation. SIAM J. Applied Dynamical Systems, 299-332.
2020
Hunt, E. D., J. I. Christian, J. B. Basara, L. Lowman, J. A. Otkin, J. Bell, K. Jarecke, R. A. Wakefield, and R. M. Randall, 2020: The flash drought of 1936. J. Appl. Serv. Climatol., http://www.doi.org/10.46275/JOASC.2020.11.001.
Zhang, M., X. Yuan, and J. A. Otkin, 2020: Remote sensing of the impact of flash drought events on terrestrial carbon dynamics over China. Carbon Balance Manage., 15, 20, https://doi.org/10.1186/s13021-020-00156-1.
Nguyen, H., J. A. Otkin, M. C. Wheeler, P. Hope, B. Trewin, and C. Pudmenzky, 2020: Climatology and variability of the Evaporative Stress Index and its suitability as a tool to monitor Australian drought. J. Hydrometeor., 21, 2309-2324.
Christian, J. I., J. B. Basara, E. D. Hunt, J. A. Otkin, and X. Xiao, 2020: Flash drought development and cascading impacts associated with the 2010 Russian heatwave. Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 094078.
Griffin, S. M., J. A. Otkin, G. Thompson, M. Frediani, and J. Berner, 2020: Assessing the impact of stochastic cloud microphysics using GOES-16 infrared brightness temperatures. Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 3111-3137.
Lewis, W., T. J. Wagner, J. A. Otkin, and T. A. Jones, 2020: Impact of AERI temperature and moisture retrievals on the simulation of a central plains severe convective weather event. Atmosphere, 11, 729, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos1107079.
Zhong, Y., J. A. Otkin, M. C. Anderson, and C. R. Hain, 2020: Investigating the relationship between the Evaporative Stress Index and land surface conditions in the contiguous United States. J. Hydrometeor., 21, 1469-1484.
Liu, Y., Y. Zhu, L. Ren, J. A. Otkin, E. D. Hunt, X. Yang, R. Yuan, and S. Jian, 2020: Two different methods for flash drought identification: Comparison of their strengths and limitations. J. Hydrometeor., 24, 691-704.
Otkin, J. A., 2020: Nonlinear bias correction for numerical weather prediction models. PhD Thesis, Department of Mathematics, University of Reading, UK. 154pp.
2019
Otkin, J. A., and R. Potthast, 2019: Assimilation of all-sky SEVIRI infrared brightness temperatures with nonlinear bias corrections in a regional-scale ensemble data assimilation system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 147, 4481-4509.
Christian, J. I., J. B. Basara, J. A. Otkin, and E. D. Hunt, 2019: Regional characteristics of flash droughts across the United States. Environ. Res. Commun., 1, 125004.
Haigh, T. R., J. A. Otkin, and A. Mucia, M. Hayes, M. Burbach, 2019: Drought early warning and the timing of range manager’s drought response. Adv. Meteorol., DOI: https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/9461513.
Basara, J. B., J. I. Christian, R. A. Wakefield, J. A. Otkin, E. Hunt, and D. Brown, 2019: The evolution, propagation, and spread of flash drought in the central United States during 2012. Environ. Res. Lett., 14, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2cc0.
Nguyen, H., M. C. Wheeler, J. A. Otkin, A. Frost, R. Stone, and T. Cowan, 2019: Using the evaporative stress index to monitor flash drought in Australia. Environ. Res. Lett., 14, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab2103.
Christian, J. I., J. B. Basara, J. A. Otkin, E. D. Hunt, R. A. Wakefield, P. X. Flanagan, and X. Xiao, 2019: A methodology for flash drought identification in gridded datasets: Application of flash drought frequency across the United States. J. Hydrometeor., 20, 833-846.
Li, Z., J. Li, T. J. Schmit, P. Wang, A. Lim, J. Li, F. Nagle, W. Bai, J. A. Otkin, R. Atlas, R. Hoffman, S. Boukabara, W. Blackwell, and T. Pagano, 2019: The alternative of CubeSat based advanced infrared and microwave sounders for high impact weather forecasting. Atmos. Oceanic Sci. Lett., DOI: 10.1080/16742834.2019.1568816.
Otkin, J. A., Y. Zhong, E. D. Hunt, J. Basara, M. Svoboda, M. C. Anderson, and C. Hain, 2019: Assessing the evolution of soil moisture and vegetation conditions during a flash drought – flash recovery sequence over the south-central United States. J. Hydrometeor., 20, 549-562.
2018
Kurzrock, F., S. Cros, F. Chane-Ming, J. A. Otkin, L. Linguet, A. Hutt, G. Lajoie, and R. Potthast, 2018: The assimilation of geostationary meteorological satellite observations in regional NWP for cloudiness forecasting. Meteorol. Zeitschrift, 27, 277-298.
Otkin, J. A., Y. Zhong, D. Lorenz, M. C. Anderson, and C. Hain, 2018: Exploring seasonal and regional relationships between the Evaporative Stress Index and surface weather and soil moisture anomalies across the United States. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 22, 5373–5386.
Otkin, J. A., T. Haigh, A. Mucia, M. C. Anderson, and C. R. Hain, 2018: Comparison of agricultural stakeholder survey results and drought monitoring datasets during the 2016 U.S. Northern Plains flash drought. Wea. Climate Soc., 10, 867-883.
Lorenz, D. J., J. A. Otkin, M. Svoboda, C. R. Hain, and Y. Zhong, 2018: Forecasting rapid drought intensification using the Climate Forecast System (CFS). J. Geophys. Res., 123, 8365–8373.
Otkin, J. A., M. Svoboda, E. D. Hunt, T. W. Ford, M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and J. B. Basara, 2018: Flash droughts: A review and assessment of the challenges imposed by rapid onset droughts in the United States. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 99, 911-919.
Otkin, J. A., R. Potthast, and A. Lawless, 2018: Nonlinear bias correction for satellite data assimilation using Taylor series polynomials. Mon. Wea. Rev., 146, 263-285.
Yang, Y., M. C. Anderson, G. Gao, B. Wardlow, C. R. Hain, J. A. Otkin, J. Alfieri, Y. Yang, L. Sun, and W. Dulaney, 2018: Field-scale mapping of evaporative stress indicators of crop yield: An application over Mead, NE, USA. Remote Sens. Environ., 210, 387-402.
2017
Wardlow, B. D., M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, W. Crow, J. A. Otkin, T. Tadesse, and A. AghaKouchak, 2017: Advancements in Satellite Remote Sensing for Drought Monitoring. Book chapter in Drought and Water Crises: Integrating Science, Management, and Policy, CRC Press, 542 pp.
Griffin, S. M., J. A. Otkin, C. M. Rozoff, J. M. Sieglaff, L. M. Cronce, C. R. Alexander, T. L. Jensen, and J. K. Wolff, 2017: Seasonal analysis of cloud objects in the High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model using object-based verification. Mon. Wea. Rev., 56, 2317-2334.
Sieron, S. B., E. E. Clothiaux, F. Zhang, Y. Lu, and J. A. Otkin, 2017: Comparison of using distribution-specific versus effective-radius methods for hydrometeor single-scattering properties for all-sky microwave satellite radiance simulations with different microphysics parameterization schemes. J. Geophys. Res., 122, 7027-7046.
Lorenz, D. J., J. A. Otkin, M. Svoboda, C. Hain, M. C. Anderson, and Y. Zhong, 2017a: Predicting U.S. Drought Monitor states using precipitation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration anomalies. Part I: Development of a non-discrete USDM index. J. Hydrometeor., 18, 1943-1962.
Lorenz, D. J., J. A. Otkin, M. Svoboda, C. Hain, M. C. Anderson, and Y. Zhong, 2017b: Predicting U.S. Drought Monitor states using precipitation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration anomalies. Part 2: Intraseasonal drought intensification forecasts. J. Hydrometeor., 18, 1963-1982.
Yang, Y., M. C. Anderson, F. Gao, C. Hain, W. P. Kustas, T. Meyers, W. T. Crow, R. G. Finocchiaro, J. A. Otkin, L. Sun, and Y. Yang, 2017: Impact of tile drainage on evapotranspiration (ET) in South Dakota, USA based on high spatiotemporal resolution ET timeseries from a multi-satellite data fusion system. IEEE J. Sel. Top. Appl. Earth Obs. Remote Sens., 10, 2550-2564.
Flanagan, P. X., J. B. Basara, B. G. Illston, and J. A. Otkin, 2017: The effect of the dryline and convective initiation on drought evolution over Oklahoma during the 2011 drought. Adv. Meteorol., 2017, 8430743, doi:10.1155/2017/8430743.
Otkin, J. A., W. E. Lewis, A. Lenzen, B. McNoldy, and S. Majumdar, 2017: Assessing the accuracy of the cloud and water vapor fields in the Hurricane WRF (HWRF) model using satellite infrared brightness temperatures. Mon. Wea. Rev., 145, 2027-2046.
Griffin, S. M., J. A. Otkin, C. M. Rozoff, J. M. Sieglaff, L. M. Cronce, and C. R. Alexander, 2017: Methods for comparing simulated and observed satellite infrared brightness temperatures and what do they tell us? Wea. Forecasting, 32, 5-25.
Zhou, Y., X. Xiao, G. Zhang, P. Wagle, R. Bajgain, J. Dong, C. Jin, J. Basara, M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and J. A. Otkin, 2017: Quantifying agricultural drought in tall grass prairie region in the U.S. Southern Great Plains through analysis of a water-related vegetation index from MODIS images. Agr. Forest Meteorol., 246, 111-122.
2016
Boukabara, S. A., T. Zhu, H. L. Tolman, S. Lord, S. Goodman, R. Atlas, M. Goldberg, T. Auligne, R. B. Pierce, L. Cururull, M. Zupanski, M. Zhang, I. Moradi, J. A. Otkin, D. Santek, B. Hoover, Z. Pu, X. Zhan, C. Hain, E. Kalnay, D. Hotta, S. Nolin, E. Bayler, A. Mehra, S. Casey, D. Lindsey, L. Grasso, K. Kumar, A. Powell, J. Xu, T. Greenwald, J. Zajic, J. Li, J. Li, B. Li, J. Liu, L. Fang, P. Wang, and T.-C. Chen, 2016: S4: An O2R/R2O infrastructure for optimizing satellite data utilization in NOAA numerical modeling systems, a significant step toward bridging the valley of death. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 2379-2394.
Anderson, M. C., C. R. Hain, F. Jurecka, M. Trnka, P. Hlavinka, W. Dulaney, J. A. Otkin, D. Johnson, and F. Gao, 2016: An energy balance approach for mapping crop water stress and yield impacts over the Czech Republic. Clim. Res., 70, 215-230.
Cintineo, R., J. A. Otkin, T. Jones, S. Koch, and D. J. Stensrud, 2016: Assimilation of synthetic GOES-R ABI infrared brightness temperatures and WSR-88D radar observations in a high-resolution OSSE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 144, 3159-3180.
Thompson, G., M. Tewari, K. Ikeda, S. Tessendorf, C. Weeks, J. A. Otkin, and F. Kong, 2016: Explicitly-coupled cloud physics and radiation parameterizations and subsequent evaluation in WRF high-resolution convective forecasts. Atmos. Res., 168, 92-104.
Otkin, J. A., M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, M. Svoboda, D. Johnson, R. Mueller, T. Tadesse, B. Wardlow, and J. Brown, 2016: Assessing the evolution of soil moisture and vegetation conditions during the 2012 United States flash drought. Agr. Forest Meteorol., 218–219, 230–242.
Anderson, M. C., C. Zolin, P. Sentelhas, C. R. Hain, K. Semmens, M. T. Yilmaz, F. Gao, J. A. Otkin, and R. Tetrault, 2016: Assessing correlations of satellite-derived evapotranspiration, precipitation, and leaf area index anomalies with yields of major Brazilian crops. Remote Sens. Environ., 174, 82-99.
Greenwald, T. J., R. B. Pierce, T. Schaack, J. A. Otkin, M. Rogal, K. Bah, and H.-L. Huang, 2016: Near real-time production of simulated GOES-R Advanced Baseline Imager data for user readiness and product validation. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 97, 245-261.
2015
Otkin, J. A., M. Shafer, M. Svoboda, B. Wardlow, M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and J. Basara, 2015: Facilitating the use of drought early warning information through interactions with agricultural stakeholders. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 96, 1073-1078.
Saide, P. E., S. N. Spak, R. B. Pierce, J. A. Otkin, T. K. Schaack, A. K. Heidinger, A. M. da Silva, M. Kacenelenbogen, J. Redemann ,and G. R. Carmichael, 2015: Role of Central American biomass burning smoke in increasing tornado severity in the U.S. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 956–965, doi:10.1002/2014GL062826.
Otkin, J. A., M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and M. Svoboda, 2015: Using temporal changes in drought indices to generate probabilistic drought intensification forecasts. J. Hydrometeor., 16, 88-105.
2014
Otkin, J. A., M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, and M. Svoboda, 2014: Examining the relationship between drought development and rapid changes in the Evaporative Stress Index. J. Hydrometeor., 15, 938-956.
Lee, Y.-K., J. A. Otkin, and T. J. Greenwald, 2014: Evaluating model simulated cloud characteristics through comparisons with satellite observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 1046-1058.
Lim, A. H. N., J. A. Jung, H.-L. Huang, S. A. Ackerman, and J. A. Otkin, 2014: Assimilation of AIRS radiances in short term regional forecasts using community models. J. Appl. Remote Sen., 8, 083655, http://dx.doi.org/10.1117/1.JRS.8.083655.
Jones, T. A., J. A. Otkin, D. J. Stensrud, and K. Knopfmeier, 2014: Forecast evaluation of an Observing System Simulation Experiment assimilating both radar and satellite data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 107-124.
Cintineo, R., J. A. Otkin, F. Kong, and M. Xue, 2014: Evaluating the accuracy of planetary boundary layer and cloud microphysical parameterization schemes in a convection-permitting ensemble using synthetic GOES-13 satellite observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 142, 163-182.
Bormann, N., A. Hernandez-Carrascal, R. Borde, H.-J. Lutz, J. A. Otkin, and S. Wanzong, 2014: Atmospheric motion vectors from model simulations. Part I: Methods and characterization as single-level estimates of wind. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 53, 47-64.
2013
Jones, T. A., J. A. Otkin, D. J. Stensrud, and K. Knopfmeier, 2013: Assimilation of simulated GOES-R satellite radiances and WSR-88D Doppler radar reflectivity and velocity using an Observing System Simulation Experiment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 141, 3273-3299.
Otkin, J. A., M. C. Anderson, C. Hain, I. Mladenova, J. Basara, and M. Svoboda, 2013: Examining rapid onset drought development using the thermal infrared based Evaporative Stress Index. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 1057-1074.
Anderson, M. C., C. Hain, J. A. Otkin, X. Zhan, K. Mo, M. Svoboda, W. Dulaney, and A. Pimstein, 2013: An intercomparison of drought indicators based on thermal remote sensing and NLDAS-2 simulations with U.S. Drought Monitor classifications. J. Hydrometeor., 14, 1035-1056.
Anderson, M.C., W. P. Kustas, C. R. Hain, C. Cammalleri, F. Gao, M. T. Yilmaz, I. E. Mladenova, J.A. Otkin, M. A. Schull, and R. Houborg, 2013: Mapping Surface Fluxes and Moisture Conditions from Field to Global Scales using ALEXI/DisALEXI. Book chapter in Remote Sensing of Land Surface Turbulent Fluxes and Soil Surface Moisture Content, Taylor and Francis, 562 pp.
2012
Otkin, J. A., 2012: Assimilation of water vapor sensitive infrared brightness temperature observations during a high impact weather event. J. Geophys. Res., 117, D19203, doi:10.1029/2012JD017568.
Bikos, D., D. T. Lindsey, J. A. Otkin, J. Sieglaff, L. Grasso, C. Siewart, J. Correia, M. Coniglio, R. Rabin, J. Kain, and S. Dembek, 2012: Synthetic satellite imagery for real-time high resolution model evaluation. Wea. Forecasting, 27, 784-795.
Lakshmanan, V., R. Rabin, J. A. Otkin, J. S. Kain, and S. Dembek, 2012: Visualizing model data using a fast approximation of a radiative transfer model. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 29, 745-754.
Otkin, J. A., 2012: Assessing the impact of the covariance localization radius when assimilating infrared brightness temperature observations using an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 543-561.
2011
Hartung, D. C., J. A., Otkin, D. D. Turner, R. Peterson, and W. F. Feltz, 2011: Assimilation of surface-based boundary layer profiler observations during a cool season weather event using an Observation System Simulation Experiment. Part 2: Forecast assessment. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2327-2346.
Otkin, J. A., Hartung, D. C., D. D. Turner, R. Peterson, W. F. Feltz, and Erik Janzon, 2011: Assimilation of surface-based boundary layer profiler observations during a cool season weather event using an Observation System Simulation Experiment. Part 1: Analysis impact. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 2309-2326.
Li, J., J. Li, J. A. Otkin, T. J. Schmit, and C.-Y. Liu, 2011: Warning information in a preconvection environment from the Geostationary Advanced Infrared Sounding System — A simulation using the IHOP case. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 776-783.
2010
Greenwald, T. J., Y.-K. Lee, J. A. Otkin, and T. L’Ecuyer, 2010: Evaluation of midlatitude clouds in a large-scale high-resolution simulation using CloudSat observations. J. Geophys. Res., 115, D19203, doi:10.1029/2009JD013552.
Otkin, J. A., 2010: Clear and cloudy-sky infrared brightness temperature assimilation using an ensemble Kalman filter. J. Geophys Res., 115, D1920, doi:10.1029/2009JD013759.
Hartung, D. C., J. A. Otkin, J. E. Martin, and D. D. Turner, 2010: The life cycle of an undular bore and its interaction with a shallow, intense cold front. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 886-908.
Bedka, K. M., J. Brunner, R. Dworak, W. Feltz, J. A. Otkin, and T. J. Greenwald, 2010: Objective overshooting top detection using infrared window channel brightness temperature gradients. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 49, 181-202.
2009
Otkin, J. A., T. J. Greenwald, J. Sieglaff, and H.-L. Huang, 2009: Validation of a large-scale simulated brightness temperature dataset using SEVIRI satellite observations. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 1613-1626.
Feltz, W. F., K. M. Bedka, J. A. Otkin, T. Greenwald, and S. A. Ackerman, 2009: Understanding satellite-observed mountain wave signatures using high-resolution numerical model data. Wea. Forecasting, 24, 76-86.
2008
Otkin, J. A., and T. J. Greenwald, 2008: Comparison of WRF model-simulated and MODIS-derived cloud data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 1957-1970.
2007
Anderson, M. C., J. R. Norman, J. R. Mecikalski, J. A. Otkin, and W. P. Kustas, 2007: A climatological study of fluxes and moisture stress across the continental U. S. based on thermal remote sensing. 2: Surface Moisture Climatology. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D11112, doi:10.1029/2006JD007507.
Anderson, M. C., J. R. Norman, J. R. Mecikalski, J. A. Otkin, and W. P. Kustas, 2007: A climatological study of fluxes and moisture stress across the continental U. S. based on thermal remote sensing. 1: Model formulation. J. Geophys. Res., 112, D10117, doi:10.1029/2006JD007506.
Otkin, J. A., D. J. Posselt, E. R. Olson, H.-L. Huang, J. E. Davies, J. Li, and C. S. Velden, 2007: Mesoscale numerical weather prediction models used in support of infrared hyperspectral measurements simulation and product algorithm development. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol., 24, 585-601.
2005
Otkin, J. A., M. C. Anderson, J. R. Mecikalski, and G. R. Diak, 2005: Validation of GOES-based insolation estimates using data from the United States Climate Reference Network. J. Hydrometeor., 8, 460-475.
2004
Otkin, J. A., and J. E. Martin, 2004: The large-scale modulation of subtropical cyclogenesis in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1813-1828.
Otkin, J. A., and J. E. Martin, 2004: A synoptic climatology of the subtropical Kona storm. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1502-1517.
Martin, J. E., and J. A. Otkin, 2004: The rapid growth and decay of an extratropical cyclone in the central Pacific Ocean. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 358-376.
2003
Otkin, J. A., 2003: Composite and case study analyses of the structure and evolution of the subtropical Kona storm and its associated large-scale environment. MS Thesis, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin – Madison, 134pp.
2002
Hansen, A. R., G. D. Nastrom, J. A. Otkin, and F. D. Eaton, 2002: MST radar observations of gravity waves and turbulence near thunderstorms. J. Appl. Meteor., 41, 298-305.